The AL East Should Fear The Twins

Billy Beane once said that “his stuff” — a reference to the Moneyball philosophy — doesn’t work in the playoffs. He was making an important point: The best team isn’t always left holding up the championship trophy. Other factors are in play come October, notably the draw each team is dealt.

We looked at every team with at least a 10 percent chance of making the playoffs, and then determined their most favorable and least favorable playoff matchups.

The teams we studied were: Tampa Bay Rays, New York Yankees, Minnesota Twins, Philadelphia Phillies, Cincinnati Reds, Atlanta Braves, Texas Rangers, San Francisco Giants, San Diego Padres and Colorado Rockies; no offense to teams on the fringe of that group.

Rays

Best opponent: Yankees
Worst opponent: Twins

Tampa has built its team knowing the strength of Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton and Ben Zobrist in the outfield; at last update, the outfield has been worth 29.7 runs above average. The pitching staff has a lot of fly-ball guys taught to lean heavily on that group. However, against the Twins, who hit the fewest fly balls of any AL offense, that strength would be neutralized to a degree. The Rays should be anxious to play the Yankees in the ALCS, specifically to use their strength on the basepaths to wreak havoc on Jorge Posada and Francisco Cervelli behind the plate.

Yankees

Best opponent: Rangers
Worst opponent: Twins

Credit the Twins for being a thorn in the side of the AL East. The New York offense is built around the home run ball, but this season, the Twins’ pitching staff has the second-lowest HR/9 in the American League. On the other hand, the Rays’ fly-ball staff is a little homer-happy, and balls are always going to fly out of the yard in Arlington. Of the two, the Yankees are hoping they draw Texas in the first round of the playoffs. The pitching staff is the third-most wild in the American League, and the Yankees are second in the league at drawing walks.

Twins

Best opponent: Rays
Worst opponent: Rangers

The Twins have long shown a tendency toward pitchers with very good control that don’t beat themselves. With the exception of Francisco Liriano, this often leads to sacrificing strikeouts. That combination meshes really well with a Rays offense that leads the American League in both BB percentage and K percentage, the latter by almost 2 percent. It stands to reason the Twins’ pitchers could limit the walks while striking out more than usual against a team like that. They don’t want to take that starting staff to Texas; the Twins have posted a team 5.96 ERA at the Rangers’ ballpark over the past four seasons.

Phillies

Best opponent: Giants
Worst opponent: Rockies

The Philadelphia pitching staff has allowed a .771 OPS this year to left-handed batters — versus a .693 OPS to right-handed batters. The Rockies can put four lefties in their lineup on a given night. Jason Giambi can also mash Brad Lidge. The team would rather face San Francisco, take their chances with Aubrey Huff and face a pitching staff that allows the most fly balls in the league.

Reds

Best opponent: Padres
Worst opponent: Braves

The Reds have an offense that depends on hitting home runs; they could have up to six people potentially reach 20 home runs, and their hitters were second in the National League in the rate of fly balls getting over the fence. Tim Hudson and Derek Lowe will limit HRs, so that would be a negative matchup for Cincy. Given that the team’s pitching staff has a lot of moving parts and still a bit of uncertainty, you know they’d like to take their chances with the weakest offense possible. That belongs to the sub-.700 OPS San Diego Padres, who, even when ballpark adjustments are taken into account, are pretty bad at the plate.

Braves

Best opponent: Giants
Worst opponent: Phillies

The Braves would enjoy a matchup with the Giants quite a bit. First, Atlanta leads the National League in BB percentage — it’s the only team in the league walking in more than 10 percent of its plate appearances. As a counter, the Giants give up the most walks of any NL-contending pitching staff. Second, the Braves’ grounder-heavy pitching staff could help neutralize a guy like Buster Posey, who actually hits a lot of balls on the ground (47.5 percent). The team is happy they won’t play the Phillies in the first round (divisional squads can’t meet each other), and you can bet they’ll hope they don’t play them at all. Philadelphia’s big left-handed bats, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, just aren’t good matchups for a staff of right-handed pitchers.

Rangers

Best opponent: Twins
Worst opponent: Yankees

The Rangers’ playoff hopes are invariably tied to the pitching performances of Cliff Lee and C.J. Wilson, both of whom should be thrown twice in any series. More than the Rays or Yankees, the Twins in particular have the biggest gap between their performance against left-handed (.747 OPS) and right-handed (.784 OPS) starters. The only AL team worse against southpaws is, in fact, the Rangers (.730 OPS). Therefore, you can bet they wouldn’t look forward to matchups against CC Sabathia or Andy Pettitte, to say nothing of the major leagues’ best offense.

Giants

Best opponent: Rockies
Worst opponent: Phillies

Colorado would be a nice matchup for the Giants, particularly due to an offense that struck out more often than any other NL contender. The Giants will have a playoff rotation of Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Jonathan Sanchez and Barry Zito — so strikeouts are inevitable. That’s a great staff, but ultimately Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt might be better — especially against a generally anemic offense.

Padres

Best opponent: Giants
Worst opponent: Braves

Offensively, the Padres are a team that hits a lot of ground balls (the most of any NL contender), and by the Pitch Value metrics at FanGraphs, they have been the third-worst team in baseball against the fastball. Conversely, Braves pitchers thrive on good sinking fastballs. The Padres would much rather run into the Giants, against whom they are 10-5 this season. The Giants and Padres play similar styles of baseball — winning with pitching and defense — although San Diego does it a little bit better.

Rockies

Best opponent: Reds
Worst opponent: Giants

The Rockies have one of the game’s best pitching staffs, and a boom-or-bust offense that strikes out a lot, but can hit the ball hard across the diamond. The Rockies’ staff could help neutralize Cincy’s homer-happy offense. A Rockies-Giants NLCS would not be fun for fans of offense; those are two low-scoring squads. The Rockies’ contact issues would likely be exacerbated by facing San Francisco’s staff.