The Best Fits For Several Trade Targets

Jim Bowden laid out his list of the 10 players most likely to be on the move over the final four weeks leading up to the trade deadline, and in several of those cases, there’s one team that could use their services more than anyone else. Without further ado, here are the three best fits to fill a contender’s needs for the stretch run.

Shane Victorino to the Cincinnati Reds.

That the Reds are in first place right now is something of a minor miracle, given the ridiculously awful performance they’ve gotten from their leadoff hitters this season. Table setters for the Reds this year have combined fora .194/.234/.304 batting line – easily the worst in the majors – and are the primary reason that Joey Votto has only 47 RBI despite being baseball’s best hitter this season. The Reds badly need a guy who can get on base at an average rate at least, and it would help if that guy could play center field, giving them a better option than either Drew Stubbs or Chris Heisey.

Enter Shane Victorino. While the Phillies 5’9 Hawaiian sparkplug isn’t having the same kind of impact he did last year (hitting .254/.322/.386), he’s still been a quality all around performer, producing +1.6 WAR to date. Most of his regression from last year has come through hitting fewer extra base hits, but the Reds don’t need Victorino to match 2011’s .491 slugging percentage, and would be happy to just have his career .342 on base percentage at the top of their line-up instead of the out machines they’ve been playing this season.

Victorino is a perfect complement to the guys already on Cincinnati’s roster as well, as he’s a switch hitter who is better from the left side of the plate, helping to balance out the all-RHB options the Reds have beyond everyday right fielder Jay Bruce. Stubbs could play against all lefties in a platoon and play left field against right-handers on days when the Reds want to maximize outfield defense, giving them more options defensively as well as a guy who could ignite their line-up and allow Votto to start driving runners in with all of his doubles.

Adding Victorino and making Stubbs as a fantastic fourth outfielder could add between one and two wins for the Reds over the rest of the season, and given how competitive the NL Central is, that could easily be the difference between a division title and sitting at home in October.

Francisco Liriano to the Indians.

With Ubaldo Jimenez and Justin Masterson rounding into form, the Indians rotation is starting to look like a strength of the team once again. However, both of those hurlers are right-handed, as are all three other members of the Indians rotation. In fact, 10 of the 12 pitchers currently on Cleveland’s roster are right-handed, and that presents a significant match-up problem against the AL Central leading Chicago White Sox.

With left-handed thumpers like Adam Dunn and A.J. Pierzynski, the White Sox have several players with large platoon splits, and the team’s 85 wRC+ against LHPs ranks just 22nd in baseball. However, the Indians don’t currently have any way to exploit those weaknesses against Chicago, and end up throwing an army of right-handed pitchers at an offense that is better against RHPs (98 wRC+) than they have been against LHPs. Beyond just the White Sox, the Indians would benefit from having a having quality left-handed starter, and Liriano’s inconsistent history and impending free agency should drive his price down to the point where the Indians could afford him without surrendering a premium return.

Liriano provides as much upside as any starter on the market, and given the Indians position, they need to take a gamble rather than making a safer, smaller move that won’t have as much impact. Replacing McAlister or Tomlin with Liriano should net them an extra win, and could also give them a match-up weapon they lack at the moment.

Marco Scutaro to the Dodgers.

Among the 23 shortstops in MLB who have qualified for the batting title, Dee Gordon ranks 21st in offense (61 wRC+) and 22nd in fielding (-9.4 UZR), all of which serve to make him baseball’s worst performing shortstop (-0.9 WAR) to date. Of all qualified players at any position, only Brennan Boesch (-1.5 WAR) has been worse. Gordon’s speed and athleticism might eventually make him a good Major League player, but he’s nowhere close to that now, and he has no business playing on a team with playoff aspirations.

Unfortunately for the Dodgers, there aren’t a lot of shortstops available, but Scutaro represents one potential upgrade who could make a major difference even while not being an amazing player himself. Scutaro’s decent-but-unspectacular production (90 wRC+, 0.1 UZR) isn’t going to command a huge return in trade, but because of the complete void he’d be filling for LA, acquiring Scutaro would be more impactful than if the proposed Carlos Lee deal had gone through. The Dodgers won a substantial amount of games in the first two months of the season with Matt Kemp surrounded by a bunch of steady performers, and what they need now is yet another steady performer to plug their hole at shortstop.

Scutaro won’t be on anyone’s list of guys who will put you over the top, but in terms of magnitude of difference for acquiring team, swapping him in for Gordon might be a larger upgrade than any other team makes all month.