While Cody Ross‘ two solo home runs will get the attention, it was a ball that stayed in the park that cost the Phillies their chance to win the first game of the NLCS. With two outs and a runner on first base in the sixth inning, Pat Burrell drove a ball to deep left field, and while Raul Ibanez had enough time to get under it, he couldn’t figure out how to make it land in his glove.

An awkward and unnecessary jump right before crashing into the wall helped the ball bounce off his arm, and by the time he recovered, a run was in and Burrell was on second base. Instead of the inning ending with the Phillies trailing by a run, Roy Halladay was forced to face another hitter with a runner in scoring position, and a single to center made the score 4-1.

Had Ibanez made the not-routine-but-not-that-hard catch, the Phillies’ chances of winning would have stood at 40.2 percent, and Jayson Werth’s two-run homer in the bottom of the sixth would have given them a one-run lead with their ace on the mound. Instead, they ended the top of the sixth with just a 17 percent chance of winning, and Werth’s home run proved to be a nonfactor in the result.

Halladay has had better performances, but Game 1 of the NLCS was decided by the defense of Ibanez. Ibanez’s inability to field his position was one of the main reasons the deal was roundly criticized when Philadelphia gave him a three-year, $30 million contract after the 2008 season. Ultimate Zone Rating estimated that he was 6.9 runs below average for a left fielder this year, among the worst defenders in the league at the position.

Ironically, he was brought in to replace Burrell, whose lead glove antics in left field led the Phillies to go in another direction. Two years later, Burrell got his revenge, driving a ball that his replacement couldn’t catch, and the play directly led to the Giants taking the lead in the fight for a World Series berth. While Ibanez is a decent hitter, his problems in the outfield offset a good chunk of his value, and Charlie Manuel should be more willing to remove him for defensive purposes once his team takes a lead.

The Phillies’ decision to go with offense over defense cost them in the sixth inning and hung Halladay with a loss he didn’t deserve.

When Joe Girardi announced his rotation for the ALCS, Andy Pettitte and Phil Hughes had been flip-flopped, with Hughes now taking the ball in Game 2 and Pettitte going in Game 3. Girardi cited a variety of factors, but no doubt one of the numbers he consulted was Hughes’ home/road splits. Over his career, and continuing this year, Hughes has performed significantly better on the road than he has in New York, especially in terms of home run prevention.

This shouldn’t be all that surprising, given that Hughes is an extreme fly-ball pitcher and New Yankee Stadium is home run-friendly, especially for left-handed hitters. He’s the kind of pitcher who will be hurt most by how the park plays, and that shows up in the results. Getting him a start on the road in Game 2 seems like a good idea. But a closer look at the data suggests that this is a meaningless move.

The Ballpark in Arlington is actually a very similar offensive environment to New Yankee Stadium. Both parks are left-handed-power-friendly, increasing home runs by 24 percent (New York) and 18 percent (Texas). They’re not as nice to right-handed power hitters, though both are still above average in terms of inflating home run totals, with right-handed bats getting a 10 percent boost in New Yankee Stadium versus the five percent boost they get in Texas.

Phil Hughes home/road splits

Park  BB/9	K/9	HR/9	FIP
Home	3.28	7.72	1.43	4.58
Road	3.05	8.05	0.67	3.44

A park doesn’t just influence home runs, however, and this is where the benefit to starting Hughes in Texas begins to break down. New Yankee Stadium promotes home runs at the expense of doubles and triples, both of which occur at a lower-than-average rate in that park. In Texas, home runs are inflated, but so are doubles and triples, so offensive levels overall are higher.

By attempting to take advantage of Hughes’ road numbers, the Yankees are actually asking him to pitch in an even tougher environment than the one he faces in New York. Someone has to pitch the games in Texas, but they didn’t make Hughes’ job any easier, and they shouldn’t expect him to match his career road numbers just because he gets a start outside of the Bronx.

Over in the National League, the San Francisco Giants did the same switcheroo, swapping Game 2 and Game 3 starters from the NLDS so Jonathan Sanchez would start in Philadelphia and Matt Cain would start in San Francisco. This time, the numbers suggest it could make a pretty significant difference, as it would be hard to find two less similar parks than Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia and AT&T Park in San Francisco.

Sanchez will now take the hill in a park that is very home run-friendly, creating 16 percent more home runs for left-handed batters and 20 percent more for right-handed hitters. However, Sanchez is the type of pitcher that is least affected by the environment in which he’s pitching, because a large percentage of his at-bats end with a walk or a strikeout. This year, 38 percent of the batters who stepped in against Sanchez failed to put the ball in play. Only 27 percent of the batters that faced Matt Cain did the same.

Sanchez’s high-walk, high-strikeout approach makes him a more suitable choice for parks that inflate run scoring, as Citizens Bank Park does. Meanwhile, AT&T Park works perfectly with Matt Cain’s skill set.

Cain, like Hughes, is an extreme fly-ball pitcher. San Francisco is one of the hardest places to hit a home run, and is most challenging for left-handed batters. The ballpark depresses home runs by lefties by 18 percent, making it the perfect place for a fly-balling right-hander like Cain to go up against Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez. The big alleys do increase doubles and triples, so it plays as a mostly fair offensive environment overall, but it’s certainly a better place to ask Cain to challenge the big left-handed bats in Philadelphia’s lineup.

Both Joe Girardi and Bruce Bochy have changed up their rotations to try to optimize their outcomes in their respective league championship series. The Giants’ switch could pay real dividends, as they are able to take advantage of the unique way each park plays. But the Yankees are just going to have to pitch well, because the two parks the ALCS will happen in are too similar to really exploit any matchup differences.

Billy Beane once said that “his stuff” — a reference to the Moneyball philosophy — doesn’t work in the playoffs. He was making an important point: The best team isn’t always left holding up the championship trophy. Other factors are in play come October, notably the draw each team is dealt.

We looked at every team with at least a 10 percent chance of making the playoffs, and then determined their most favorable and least favorable playoff matchups.

The teams we studied were: Tampa Bay Rays, New York Yankees, Minnesota Twins, Philadelphia Phillies, Cincinnati Reds, Atlanta Braves, Texas Rangers, San Francisco Giants, San Diego Padres and Colorado Rockies; no offense to teams on the fringe of that group.

Rays

Best opponent: Yankees
Worst opponent: Twins

Tampa has built its team knowing the strength of Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton and Ben Zobrist in the outfield; at last update, the outfield has been worth 29.7 runs above average. The pitching staff has a lot of fly-ball guys taught to lean heavily on that group. However, against the Twins, who hit the fewest fly balls of any AL offense, that strength would be neutralized to a degree. The Rays should be anxious to play the Yankees in the ALCS, specifically to use their strength on the basepaths to wreak havoc on Jorge Posada and Francisco Cervelli behind the plate.

Yankees

Best opponent: Rangers
Worst opponent: Twins

Credit the Twins for being a thorn in the side of the AL East. The New York offense is built around the home run ball, but this season, the Twins’ pitching staff has the second-lowest HR/9 in the American League. On the other hand, the Rays’ fly-ball staff is a little homer-happy, and balls are always going to fly out of the yard in Arlington. Of the two, the Yankees are hoping they draw Texas in the first round of the playoffs. The pitching staff is the third-most wild in the American League, and the Yankees are second in the league at drawing walks.

Twins

Best opponent: Rays
Worst opponent: Rangers

The Twins have long shown a tendency toward pitchers with very good control that don’t beat themselves. With the exception of Francisco Liriano, this often leads to sacrificing strikeouts. That combination meshes really well with a Rays offense that leads the American League in both BB percentage and K percentage, the latter by almost 2 percent. It stands to reason the Twins’ pitchers could limit the walks while striking out more than usual against a team like that. They don’t want to take that starting staff to Texas; the Twins have posted a team 5.96 ERA at the Rangers’ ballpark over the past four seasons.

Phillies

Best opponent: Giants
Worst opponent: Rockies

The Philadelphia pitching staff has allowed a .771 OPS this year to left-handed batters — versus a .693 OPS to right-handed batters. The Rockies can put four lefties in their lineup on a given night. Jason Giambi can also mash Brad Lidge. The team would rather face San Francisco, take their chances with Aubrey Huff and face a pitching staff that allows the most fly balls in the league.

Reds

Best opponent: Padres
Worst opponent: Braves

The Reds have an offense that depends on hitting home runs; they could have up to six people potentially reach 20 home runs, and their hitters were second in the National League in the rate of fly balls getting over the fence. Tim Hudson and Derek Lowe will limit HRs, so that would be a negative matchup for Cincy. Given that the team’s pitching staff has a lot of moving parts and still a bit of uncertainty, you know they’d like to take their chances with the weakest offense possible. That belongs to the sub-.700 OPS San Diego Padres, who, even when ballpark adjustments are taken into account, are pretty bad at the plate.

Braves

Best opponent: Giants
Worst opponent: Phillies

The Braves would enjoy a matchup with the Giants quite a bit. First, Atlanta leads the National League in BB percentage — it’s the only team in the league walking in more than 10 percent of its plate appearances. As a counter, the Giants give up the most walks of any NL-contending pitching staff. Second, the Braves’ grounder-heavy pitching staff could help neutralize a guy like Buster Posey, who actually hits a lot of balls on the ground (47.5 percent). The team is happy they won’t play the Phillies in the first round (divisional squads can’t meet each other), and you can bet they’ll hope they don’t play them at all. Philadelphia’s big left-handed bats, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, just aren’t good matchups for a staff of right-handed pitchers.

Rangers

Best opponent: Twins
Worst opponent: Yankees

The Rangers’ playoff hopes are invariably tied to the pitching performances of Cliff Lee and C.J. Wilson, both of whom should be thrown twice in any series. More than the Rays or Yankees, the Twins in particular have the biggest gap between their performance against left-handed (.747 OPS) and right-handed (.784 OPS) starters. The only AL team worse against southpaws is, in fact, the Rangers (.730 OPS). Therefore, you can bet they wouldn’t look forward to matchups against CC Sabathia or Andy Pettitte, to say nothing of the major leagues’ best offense.

Giants

Best opponent: Rockies
Worst opponent: Phillies

Colorado would be a nice matchup for the Giants, particularly due to an offense that struck out more often than any other NL contender. The Giants will have a playoff rotation of Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Jonathan Sanchez and Barry Zito — so strikeouts are inevitable. That’s a great staff, but ultimately Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt might be better — especially against a generally anemic offense.

Padres

Best opponent: Giants
Worst opponent: Braves

Offensively, the Padres are a team that hits a lot of ground balls (the most of any NL contender), and by the Pitch Value metrics at FanGraphs, they have been the third-worst team in baseball against the fastball. Conversely, Braves pitchers thrive on good sinking fastballs. The Padres would much rather run into the Giants, against whom they are 10-5 this season. The Giants and Padres play similar styles of baseball — winning with pitching and defense — although San Diego does it a little bit better.

Rockies

Best opponent: Reds
Worst opponent: Giants

The Rockies have one of the game’s best pitching staffs, and a boom-or-bust offense that strikes out a lot, but can hit the ball hard across the diamond. The Rockies’ staff could help neutralize Cincy’s homer-happy offense. A Rockies-Giants NLCS would not be fun for fans of offense; those are two low-scoring squads. The Rockies’ contact issues would likely be exacerbated by facing San Francisco’s staff.

The MVP has traditionally been awarded almost exclusively to players on winning teams; this methodology has led to some great seasons getting overlooked at times.

Here are five examples of great seasons that took place within the context of absolutely terrible teams, including one 2010 candidate.

Cal Ripken
1991 Baltimore Orioles (67-95)
11.1 WAR
This is arguably the best season by a shortstop ever. Ripken hit .323/.374/.566 while playing some terrific defense at the game’s hardest position. His .407 wOBA was third-best in baseball behind lumbering sluggers Frank Thomas and Danny Tartabull, but Ripken ran circles around those two in defensive value.

Johnson made up an astounding 89 percent of his team’s total WAR. It’s one of the great wasted seasons in the history of the game.
And yet, even with a historical season from their star player, the Orioles were still awful, finishing ahead of only the Cleveland Indians in the American League.

While Ripken had to carry the offense by himself, he couldn’t do anything to help the pitching, which was among the worst in the league. Sam Horn and Randy Milligan were not enough to help Ripken score the runs needed to overcome problems at getting opponents out, and so Baltimore had to endure a miserable season in the year that their franchise icon had the best year of his career.

Randy Johnson
2004 Arizona Diamondbacks (51-111)
9.9 WAR
Part of a legendary run of some of the great pitching seasons ever, Johnson’s 2004 season stands out as an oasis in the driest desert you could imagine. He was a dominant workhorse, throwing 245 innings with a league-best 2.30 FIP. He struck out 290 batters, avoiding giving too much responsibility to one of the league’s worst defensive teams. He pitched deep into games because the bullpen behind him was atrocious. And yet, he “only” won 16 games (against 14 losses) because Arizona had the worst offense in baseball.

How much did Johnson carry that team? Everyone else on the roster combined for a total of 1.2 WAR. Johnson made up an astounding 89 percent of his team’s total WAR. It’s one of the great wasted seasons in the history of the game.

Barry Bonds
1995 San Francisco Giants (67-77)
7.7 WAR
Bonds had some better years when he was older, yes, but in a strike-shortened 144 game season, he hit .294/.431/.577. This was back when he was still a young, spry athlete, so he hit 33 homers, stole 33 bases and played a really good defensive left field.

Even with the game’s best all-around player in the lineup every day, the Giants still managed to finish in last place in the NL West. They just didn’t have enough talent around Bonds, especially on the mound, where the immortal William Van Landingham was the team’s best pitcher.

Ryan Zimmerman
2010 Washington Nationals (61-84)
7.0 WAR
By WAR, Zimmerman has been the best player in the National League this year, combining terrific offensive numbers (.304/.389/.512) with Gold Glove defense (plus-15.9 UZR) at third base. His teammates have not lived up to their end of the bargain, though, and the result is another losing season for the Nationals. Don’t blame Zimmerman, though — he’s accounted for 23 percent of his team’s WAR.

Carlos Pena
2007 Tampa Bay Rays (66-96)
6.2 WAR
The Rays struck gold with Pena in 2007, picking him up for nothing over the winter and then watching him blossom into one of the game’s premier power-hitting first basemen. He hit .282, launched 46 home runs and drew 102 walks. His .430 wOBA was the fifth-best in baseball that year, and he was no slouch at first base either. However, he was surrounded by the remains of the old Devil Rays era and the team was not able to capitalize on his breakout season. Tampa Bay finished with the worst record in baseball, but Pena’s performance helped the Rays avoid the shame of a 100-loss season — and then he helped propel them to the World Series in 2008.

You’ll note that Steve Carlton’s 1972 season is not mentioned, and that’s because we have WAR data for pitchers going only to 1980. However, it’s likely his 27 wins on a 59-win team would have put him on this list.

The Houston Astros have a large problem on their hands — and we don’t even mean their current 66-73 record.

The team did a good job this season of building towards the future; those efforts have been rewarded with a third-place standing in the NL Central that likely could be much worse (they’re playing strong right now, at 7-3 in their last 10).

The long-term future isn’t so rosy, though.

After the 2006 season, when the Astros missed the playoffs by 1 1/2 games, they made a splash by signing Carlos Lee to a six-year, $100 million contract. It seemed like an odd decision at the time. The market for Lee didn’t appear overly competitive. Even if it was, the contract still seemed out of line. Lee produced numbers that would justify that type of contract just once in his career — and that was in his 2004 season with the Chicago White Sox. Since then it had become clear that while he could hit, his fielding was a liability. That can become a problem in the National League.

The first two seasons of the contract looked just fine, as Lee justified his salary with 3.6 and 3.9 Wins Above Replacement, or WAR (explained more here). But in 2009, the situation started to look troublesome, as Lee produced just 2.1 WAR. Converted to dollars, that is $9.3 million — or about half of what the Astros actually paid him. This year Lee has been even worse, producing worse than a replacement player — that is, a theoretical player freely available in a minor league system. Lee has been 0.7 wins worse than a replacement player, costing his team $2.9 million in addition to his $18.5 million salary, or a $21.4 million discrepancy. That’s not something Houston can afford if it wants to contend in the future.

We’ve seen this many times in the past few years. A player might be at the end of a long-term contract, the contract might have been poor from the start, or the player might have unexpectedly declined. There has been no discrepancy worse than Lee’s, which means that he has had the least valuable season in history, based on dollar value. But there have been some particularly poor performances per contract. Let’s take a look at some of the worst.

Jose Guillen, 2009
Guillen is an example of a contract that should never have been signed in the first place. If the Kansas City Royals had designs on contending during Guillen’s tenure with the team — 2008 through 2010 — they didn’t do much else to further that goal. It didn’t help that Guillen performed worse than most could have imagined. In 2008 he produced minus-1.8 WAR, which created a $20.1 million gap between his salary and value. Overall with the Royals he produced minus-1.3 WAR. It was a bad contract from the start, but few envisioned it being that bad.

Bernie Williams, 2005
The New York Yankees certainly signed Williams for at least one year too many, but that’s the price they had to pay for competing with the Boston Red Sox. Their arch rivals came close to signing Williams after the 1998 season, but the Yankees came back at the last minute with a seven-year, $87.5 million contract. Not many players can roam center field briskly at age 36, and Williams was no exception. He produced minus-2.2 WAR in 2005, the contract’s final year, creating a nearly $20 million discrepancy. The Yankees did realize plenty of value earlier in the contract; Williams produced a WAR of 5.0 in each of the contract’s first four years.

Todd Helton, 2010
A nine-year extension for a 27-year-old superstar might not seem like a bad deal, but that wasn’t exactly the case with Todd Helton and the Rockies. The nine-year, $141.5 million contract he signed in 2001 didn’t take effect until 2003. Helton produced heavily in the first two seasons, 6.9 and 7.1 WAR, but after that his production dropped. He has had a few good seasons since, but injuries have sapped his power. The contract would have looked a lot better had it been enacted in 2001, rather than 2003. Helton got a few too many years.

Alfonso Soriano, 2009
Any time a player signs an eight-year deal, the team probably knows that the last year or two will hurt. But the third year? That’s what the Cubs realized with Alfonso Soriano and his $136 million contract. He earned $16 million in 2009, but produced 0.0 WAR. He has recovered a bit in 2010, but he’s still not playing to the level of his contract. The Cubs signing Soriano was not a mistake. Giving him so many years was, though.

Jason Kendall, 2007
It’s tough to fault a team for signing a 28-year-old superstar catcher to a long-term deal, so the Pittsburgh Pirates get a pass for their six-year, $60 million contract to Jason Kendall. He helped justify it by producing 4.7 and 4.6 WAR in years two and three of the deal, but that didn’t bring the Pirates closer to contention. They eventually traded him, leaving Oakland to realize the worst year of the contract, 2007. Decline can be expected from a 34-year-old catcher, but minus-0.7 WAR after a 3.1 WAR season? That seems excessive. Kendall ended up costing the A’s and Cubs $2.7 million, or $15.7 million when factoring in his $13 million salary.

Gary Matthews, 2009
Sometimes one year can make a big difference. Gary Matthews had never established himself as any type of star during his first five years in the league. But then in 2006 he went on an offensive tear and produced 3.9 WAR. This enticed the Angels, who signed him to a five-year, $50 million contract. They set the example for why teams should not sign players based on one good year. It took Matthews just two seasons to produce a negative WAR, and in the third he produced minus-1.1 WAR, costing his team $5 million, or $15 million counting his salary. They ended up eating the remainder of the contract after the season.

Although the National League West might not be the home of offensive behemoths, at least one of the run-starved trio of the San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies will reach the playoffs. It might be tempting to write all those teams off because of their lack of punch, but history shows that you don’t have to be an offensive machine to have a parade in November.

As you can see in the graphic below, five of the 19 teams that have won the World Series in the past 20 years — there was no postseason in 1994 thanks to the strike — had offenses that were below the league average in that given year. The 1995 Atlanta Braves were a whopping 45 runs below average yet won it all thanks to some guys named Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz on the mound.

This is good news for the Giants especially; they’ve posted the worst offensive numbers of any contending club this season. (See the second chart, below this paragraph.) Their problems at the plate have kept them looking up at the Padres for most of the season and have inspired general manager Brian Sabean to make several moves to bolster the offense, including acquisitions of outfielders Pat Burrell, Jose Guillen and Cody Ross.

The Giants don’t have the Hall of Fame pitching trio that the Braves had, but their pitching has been strong enough to keep them in the race. Their team strikeout rate of 8.11 K/9 is second-best in baseball. Although they don’t have a balanced team, they may be able to make it work in October. To get there, however, they’ll have to jump over a team with a similar pedigree.

The Padres have scored just 589 runs — only three more than the Washington Nationals — and are certainly not an offensive juggernaut. They, too, have been carried by their pitching staff; they are the only team that has a higher strikeout rate than the Giants. However, their home park plays a large role in driving runs down, and given the environment in which they play half their games, their overall offensive performance is not so bad. They are comparable to the Florida Marlins of 1997 and 2003 as well as the 2005 Chicago White Sox and 2006 St. Louis Cardinals, each of which ended up winning it all.

There are enough examples of mediocre offenses being carried to world championships by their teammates to know that each of the eight teams that make it to October has a legitimate chance. However, being able to score runs in bunches certainly helps.

The New York Yankees have won five championships since 1996 on the backs of some big hitters. Last year’s New York offense wasn’t just the best in baseball — it was one of the best in baseball history, putting up a whopping plus-198 weighted runs above average that is easily the best of the championship clubs from the past 20 years. Both times that the Boston Red Sox won it all, they did so with strong offensive clubs, and the Toronto Blue Jays won back-to-back titles in 1992 and 1993 with a lineup full of good hitters.

The ability to score runs is why the Yankees are again looked at as one of the favorites, as they have the best offense in baseball yet again.

However, don’t overlook the Minnesota Twins, who have hit better than any team other than the Yankees and have done so without Justin Morneau in the second half of the season. Jim Thome has filled the gap better than anyone could have anticipated, and his .278/.407/.635 (batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage) mark is nearly the equal of Morneau’s numbers before he landed on the disabled list. With Thome and Mauer in the middle of the lineup and a deep lineup that doesn’t have any holes, the Twins can hit with the big boys and shouldn’t be underestimated come playoff time.

Over in the National League, the upstart Cincinnati Reds have mashed their way to the NL Central lead. MVP candidate Joey Votto gets most of the credit, but underrated performances from guys at key positions, such as Ryan Hanigan and Paul Janish, make the Reds a hard team to pitch around. The Reds are the team to back in the Senior Circuit if you want a club that can put up crooked numbers on the scoreboard.

The lesson from recent history, however, is that big-time scoring isn’t the only way to the promised land. It helps, certainly, but all these teams can point to at least one World Series champion with a similar offense and attempt to follow in its footsteps.

When you watch the White Sox play, you are apt to see things like Juan Pierre leading off, Mark Kotsay at DH and Omar Vizquel at third base, and yet Chicago has continued to play winning baseball despite some curious lineup changes and some offensive black holes and sits 4½ games behind the Twins in the AL Central. The Sox’s secret weapon? Don Cooper, perhaps the most underrated pitching coach in the game.

Everyone has heard about Dave Duncan’s prowess for fixing pitchers in St. Louis, and Leo Mazzone got a lot of credit for the Braves’ epic run during the 1990s, but Cooper has flown under the radar as a pitching guru. However, he’s been instrumental in helping the White Sox get top-notch performances out of guys who were deemed not good enough for another major league organization. In fact, the cast-off label could be applied to nearly every member of the White Sox’s bullpen.

Bobby Jenks was claimed off waivers after the 2004 season, in which he had posted a 10.24 ERA in the minor leagues. In 2005, with some mechanical adjustments from Cooper, Jenks was throwing strikes and blowing away major league hitters. He took over as the White Sox closer in 2006 and has been one of the game’s best ninth-inning stoppers since, posting 8.5 wins above replacement in his career.

He isn’t even Cooper’s biggest success story, however. That would be Matt Thornton, the game’s premier left-handed reliever. The White Sox picked him up in the spring of 2006, sending busted prospect Joe Borchard to Seattle to acquire him. Thornton threw hard, but that was the only thing he could do. His command was dreadful, he didn’t have any good off-speed stuff and hitters would just wait for Thornton to fall behind in the count before sitting on his fastball.

Another mechanical tweak from Cooper and Thornton immediately cut his walk rate nearly in half in 2006, going from 6.6 BB/9 to 3.5 BB/9. He’s continued to improve his command while in Chicago and has actually seen his strikeout rate increase every year since joining the White Sox. Over the last three years, Thornton has an xFIP of 2.75, just behind some guy named Mariano Rivera for the best mark of any AL reliever.

Cooper has continued to work his magic this season, helping get J.J. Putz back on track after a disastrous stint with the Mets, as well as getting high-quality performances out of rookie Sergio Santos, a converted infielder who began the season with just 29 innings pitched in his professional career. Even though it is a collection of guys that no one wanted, the White Sox once again have the best bullpen in the AL.

Cooper doesn’t just specialize in relievers. The White Sox’s rotation also shows just how much the organization has benefited from their pitching coach.

When the White Sox acquired Gavin Floyd from the Phillies before the 2007 season, he had a 6.96 ERA in the big leagues and had shown little of the stuff that had made him a good minor league prospect. His K/BB ratio was a terrible 75/64 in 108 major league innings and he’d given up an alarming 20 home runs. He was basically a two-pitch guy, relying mainly on his fastball/curveball combination, and hitters had no problem teeing off on both.

Once arriving in Chicago, Cooper persuaded Floyd to start throwing a slider, which has become his more frequently used breaking ball and has allowed him to significantly cut back on fastballs. His ability to mix pitches and keep hitters off balance paid off immediately, as he also cut his walk rate dramatically upon joining the White Sox, and he has continued to improve each year he’s been a member of the staff. This year, he’s even added more groundballs to the mix while maintaining his excellent K/BB ratio.

Cooper’s influence can also be seen in Freddy Garcia, whom the team picked up off the scrap heap after years of injuries and has given the team effective innings at the back of the rotation. And, while it’s only a handful of starts, perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised that Edwin Jackson is throwing his best baseball of the season since being traded to Chicago. Cooper has spent years fixing pitchers like Jackson.

Since Cooper took over as Chicago’s pitching coach midway through the 2002 season, the team has consistently had one of the best pitching staffs in the league in spite of playing in a park that is one of the best places for hitters in all of baseball. By rehabilitating arms that were discarded by other organizations, the White Sox have been able to build quality pitching staffs without expending a lot of resources. The work Cooper has done in Chicago should not go unnoticed.

The July 31 trade deadline creates a good deal of buzz and excitement — and grades — but it’s a bit of a false premise.

Although trades become harder to make after July 31 passes, deals do get made in August; teams find trading partners after putting their players on waivers. Given the reluctance of many teams to take on additional payroll, we likely will see even more trades this month than usual — any player with a decent-sized paycheck likely will clear waivers and be eligible for a postdeadline trade.

Some of the big names floating out there right now have included Manny Ramirez and Adam Dunn.

Throughout the years, some interesting deals have been made after July 31. Although some clubs have found bargains with late acquisitions, others have been stuck with ridiculous contracts they never should have taken in the first place.

Here are the best — and worst — August deals of recent vintage.

2009: Cleveland Indians trade Carl Pavano to the Minnesota Twins for Yohan Pino
Teams were scared off by Pavano’s high ERA in Cleveland, but that was more a function of his teammates’ defensive abilities than his own poor pitching. His move to Minnesota proved a boon for the Twins and for Pavano, and he has even continued to pay dividends this season after accepting the Twins’ arbitration offer this past winter.

2009: Tampa Bay Rays trade Scott Kazmir to Los Angeles Angels for Sean Rodriguez, Alex Torres and Matt Sweeney
This one was regrettable. The Angels inherited the remainder of Kazmir’s bloated salary hoping that he would find his previous velocity — but he’s been downright terrible since joining the team. In addition to paying him $8 million this year, the Angels are on the hook for $12 million in salary next season plus a $2.5 million buyout of his 2012 option after the season ends. All told, they’ll end up paying more than $25 million for Kazmir, who has pitched about as well as a random Triple-A arm.

2004: Colorado Rockies trade Larry Walker to the St. Louis Cardinals for Jason Burch, Luis Martinez and Chris Narveson
The Cardinals needed an outfielder for the stretch run, and the Rockies were willing to move 37-year-old Walker to get out from under the final year of his contract — even though he was still one of their best players at the time. Walker proved he could hit outside Coors Field, more than justifying his salary, and helped push St. Louis into the World Series in 2004. None of the three players Colorado acquired panned out.

1998: Toronto Blue Jays trade Randy Myers to the San Diego Padres for Brian Loyd
Myers, a formerly dominant reliever who was battling injury problems, was given to the Padres because of his inflated salary — a total of more than $13.5 million due in 1999 and 2000. Myers would pitch just 14 innings for San Diego after the deal, posting a 6.28 ERA, then spend the next two seasons attempting to get healthy on the Padres’ dime. He would never pitch in baseball again, and San Diego ended up paying Myers more than $1 million per inning they received from the one-time Nasty Boy.

1990: Houston Astros trade Larry Andersen to the Boston Red Sox for Jeff Bagwell
This trade lives on in infamy as a caution against trading prospects for rental players, but it should be noted that Andersen was tremendous for the Red Sox in the final month of the season. He threw 22 innings and allowed just three runs down the stretch, and Boston held on to win the American League East title, edging the Blue Jays by just two games. Still, I’d guess that Boston wouldn’t have made that deal had it known what Bagwell would become.

1987: Atlanta Braves trade Doyle Alexander to the Detroit Tigers for John Smoltz
As with the Bagwell-Andersen trade, history does not remember this one fondly for Detroit, but Alexander was unbelievably good for the Tigers down the stretch. In 11 starts, he threw an amazing 88.1 innings with just a 1.53 ERA and pitched his new team into the playoffs. However, the Tigers were eliminated by Kirby Puckett and the Twins in the American League Championship Series and Smoltz went on to have a great career for the Braves, so this deal is remembered as a disaster for the Tigers.

After losing again last night, this time to the Kansas City Royals in a game in which Felix Hernandez took the mound, the Mariners now stand at 34-48. The biggest culprit in their disappointing season is clearly their offense, which is last in the AL in nearly everything related to producing runs. The Mariners’ biggest problem on offense is a total lack of power; they are tied with Oakland for fewest home runs of any American League team, but the A’s have 24 more doubles and nine more triples.

Many people see Seattle’s lack of power and its overall failure as a cause and effect, suggesting that teams that don’t hit the ball out of the park are structurally flawed and can’t win. Rather than just taking this at face value, though, I thought we should look at whether other teams have won without having any real thump in their lineups, compensating by scoring runs in other ways. As it turns out, a number of punchless squads have ended up playing meaningful games in October.

The most recent example of a playoff team that won this way was the 1996 Dodgers. They won 90 games and the NL wild card despite finishing last in the league in slugging percentage with a .384 mark. They managed to score 703 runs on the back of Mike Piazza and a poor supporting cast, though two of the other guys in the lineup, Raul Mondesi (24 homers) and Eric Karros (34 homers), could at least hit the ball over the wall.

If we’re looking for a playoff club that really lacked power, we have to turn the clock back to 1987, when the St. Louis Cardinals won more games (95) than they hit home runs (94). With Vince Coleman, Ozzie Smith and Willie McGee, it was a team built around speed and defense, but the Cards were able to finish second in the NL in runs scored because they got on base (No. 1 in OBP) and ran like the wind (No. 1 in steals). They did have one big-time power hitter, Jack Clark, who accounted for 37 percent of the team’s home run total by himself, but the rest of the lineup was a bunch of slap hitters who were on the team for their defense.

That squad is a good comparison for Seattle, because the M’s were hoping to ride the speed-and-defense model to a division crown. However, their .309 team OBP ranks 13th in the AL. And though they are third in the AL with 75 swipes (and an 80 percent success rate), you can’t steal first base. And unlike the ’87 Cards, they don’t have even one masher. Franklin Gutierrez leads the squad with just eight homers, and Ichiro Suzuki has the highest slugging percentage (.415) of any of their everyday players. Seattle’s team slugging percentage of .349 is the lowest in the AL.

If we’re searching for a team that got to the playoffs without any real big-time power threat, though, we have to go back to the 1973 Mets. They slugged a ridiculous .338 as a team, which was bad even by the lower offensive standards of the time. Their leading home run guy, John Milner, hit 24 bombs but also hit just .239. Rusty Staub, the team’s best hitter, launched only 15 jacks, but he racked up a lot of doubles and walks.

Still, despite being power-starved, that Mets team was able to win the NL East and take the A’s to seven games in the World Series, showing that it is possible to contend without a big-time power bat in the middle of the lineup. However, considering that the Mets won just 83 games in the regular season, they don’t exactly inspire confidence that this plan will always work.

While some teams have been able to get away with a lack of power, it’s rare. The Mariners needed more from Milton Bradley and Jose Lopez, who were being counted on to produce the offensive punch in the middle of the lineup. When they both decided to have the worst years of their careers, the Mariners’ chances for contention went out the window.

It’s no secret which guys are having the best seasons so far in 2010 — Robinson Cano, Ubaldo Jimenez and Justin Morneau are among those who are off to the races and will certainly be at the All-Star Game in two weeks. But that’s the thing about the Midsummer Classic — the choices are mostly based on who has had the best first half. What if we went back a full year? Here are the best players over the last calendar year, dating back to July 1, 2009? Think of them as the full-year All-Stars.

To choose this team, I took the players at each position with the highest weighted on-base percentage (wOBA) who had enough plate appearances (3.3 per team game) to qualify for a batting title. For pitchers, I used FIP.

Catcher: Joe Mauer, Twins — .330/.410/.491, .390 wOBA
No big surprise here, as Mauer’s the best-hitting catcher in the game. However, it should be noted that Arizona’s Miguel Montero has slightly better rate statistics, but doesn’t have enough plate appearances to qualify. He’s one to keep an eye on now that he’s healthy again.

First base: Albert Pujols, Cardinals — .319/.429/.585, .424 wOBA
Pujols takes the top spot, but you should feel bad for Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto and Kevin Youkilis — they are the three of the best hitters in baseball over the last 365 days, but because they play the same position as Prince Albert, they can’t crack the top spot.

Second base: Robinson Cano, Yankees — 347/.386/.567, .407 wOBA
Cano’s burst to begin this season has carried his numbers to the top, surpassing both Dustin Pedroia and Chase Utley. Not a bad trio of offensive middle infielders.

Shortstop: Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies — .318/.389/.564, .412 wOBA
Move over, Hanley; the Rockies star has taken over as the best-hitting shortstop in the game over the past year. Tulowitzki’s recent wrist injury is going to be a huge problem for Colorado. He is much more than just a slick fielder.

Third base: Alex Rodriguez, New York – .297/.381/.522, .392 wOBA
Rumors of A-Rod’s demise have been greatly exaggerated, as the Yankees third baseman has outhit all other third basemen over the last year. He might not be as good as he was a few years ago, but the guy can still rake.

Left field: Matt Holliday, Cardinals — .326/.395/.547, .404 wOBA
Yeah, I think St. Louis is pleased with how that trade with Oakland has worked out. Holliday’s slow start with the A’s last year is nothing more than a blip on the radar at this point, as he’s gone right back to being the best-hitting left fielder in the game.

Center field: Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies — .299/.346/.523, .375 wOBA
Kudos if you guessed this one correctly. He gets overshadowed by some of his teammates, but the slugging center fielder has put up huge numbers for the Rockies over the last year and is one of the reasons they felt comfortable giving Dexter Fowler more time in Triple-A.

Right field: Magglio Ordonez, Tigers — .334/.402/.506, .397 wOBA
Ordonez has certainly rewarded the Tigers for their decision to let his $18 million option vest; he has produced at an elite level even as he advances in age, just edging out Jayson Werth for the top spot on this list.

Designated hitter: Vladimir Guerrero, Rangers — .324/.370/.550, .393 wOBA
If the Angels weren’t already regretting their decision to let Guerrero leave and replace him with Hideki Matsui, they certainly are after he hit two more home runs against them Wednesday night. Finally healthy again, Guerrero is once again hitting like the “Impaler” that Anaheim knew and loved for so many years.

Starting pitcher: Adam Wainwright, Cardinals — 2.11 ERA, 2.73 FIP, 3.10 xFIP
He generally doesn’t get mentioned in the conversations about the best pitcher in baseball, but over the last year, he’s outpitched everyone, including Roy Halladay and Tim Lincecum.

Relief pitcher: Luke Gregerson, Padres — 2.48 ERA, 1.81 FIP, 2.32 xFIP
The Padres have a great bullpen, but no one has been better than Gregerson, who is simply blowing hitters away on a nightly basis. The Cardinals have done a lot of things right over the last few years, but trading him to San Diego for Khalil Greene was not one of their finer moments.