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This year’s World Series was truly a fall classic. However, for the fans of the other 28 teams, it was just one more week before the fun of the Hot Stove season begins.

As we saw with the St. Louis Cardinals signing Lance Berkman before this season, sometimes one signing can go a long way. With that in mind, here’s a look at the five biggest holes that need to be filled this winter, and how that can be accomplished.

San Francisco Giants: shortstop

It’s something of a minor miracle that the Giants were able to win 86 games and notch a second-place finish despite ranking 15th in the National League in wOBA. As you can imagine, that was due to a systemic failure on offense, but the most obvious need going forward is an upgrade at shortstop. Last season, Giants shortstops combined to “hit” a measly .210/.265/.299. Suffice it to say, that’s an unacceptable level of production. Since there’s little in Brandon Crawford’s minor league dossier to suggest he can hit at the highest level, an external solution is necessary.

The free-agent gold standard is, of course, Jose Reyes. While the Giants certainly have the resources to afford him, it figures to be a crowded fray of suitors. The next-best option is Jimmy Rollins, who can still provide above-average production by positional standards and plus fielding. Down-ballot options include, for the most part, Rafael Furcal. So if there’s any team that needs to be committed to paying the going rate for Reyes, it’s San Fran. This might be the best fit in term of need, resources and solution in this year’s market.

Chicago Cubs: first base

No, the Cubs are probably not going to contend in 2012, but this is more about establishing a foundation for future seasons. You can’t gauge the market for a player until after he signs, but provided conditions aren’t grossly out of whack, the Cubs should pursue Albert Pujols and/or Prince Fielder.

First and foremost, either would fill what will be a gaping hole following the departure of Carlos Pena (more on him in a moment). Second, both are excellent, established and popular players who would help build the brand in addition to helping win games. Third, either would be plucked directly from a division rival.

Concerns? Certainly. Pujols is aging and could potentially command a contract that extends beyond the bounds of his usefulness. And Fielder’s body type doesn’t lend itself to productivity deep into one’s 30s, though he has played at least 157 games in every season since 2006. Still, both are going to be top-tier performers for at least the next handful of seasons, and that matters to the Cubs. The buy-in for contention in the NL Central is relatively low, particularly when you consider two things: The Cubs’ resources are so much greater than those of their label-mates, and the Central will probably soon be a five-team division.

For Cubs fans, it would be a rousing way to begin the Age of Theo.

Cleveland Indians: first base

The Tribe, garrisoned with a solid lineup, underrated rotation and strong bullpen, could challenge in the AL Central next season. They could also, however, use an upgrade at first base.

Obviously, Cleveland doesn’t have the revenue to sign Pujols or Fielder. The Indians should, however, be able to afford a Carlos Pena. Last season, Pena tallied 28 homers and 101 walks for the Cubs, and he hit .255/.388/.504 against right-handed pitching. The Indians could use Pena to forge a platoon with the heretofore disappointing Matt LaPorta, and they could continue, for at least one more season, deploying Carlos Santana as their regular catcher.

Washington Nationals: center field

It’s absolutely possible the Nats will contend for a playoff berth in 2012. They went 80-81 this past season, and in 2012 they’ll enjoy (one assumes) a full season of Stephen Strasburg. Additionally, young core contributors like Ryan Zimmerman, Ian Desmond, Danny Espinosa, and Wilson Ramos will be another year closer to what should be their prime seasons.

One glaring weakness, however, is center field. In 2011, Nats center fielders ranked near the bottom of the league in WAR. Chief placeholder Roger Bernardina can be a useful fourth outfielder in the majors, but as a regular center fielder he’s stretched, both with the bat and the glove.

Fortunately, the Nats have some options. They tried to trade for Denard Span before the trade deadline in July, and that remains a possible (if not optimal) outcome. Some more intriguing options can be found on the market. Provided he can still handle the physical rigors of the position, Carlos Beltran would be an excellent fit. He’d give the Nats a whopping upgrade offensively, and even in decline Beltran’s a better fielder than what they trotted out last season. In the “calculated risk” category, there’s Grady Sizemore, who might be on his way out of Cleveland thanks to his injury history and pricey option for 2012. When healthy, Sizemore is an elite talent, but the rub, of course, is staying healthy. Nonetheless, he’s the sort of high-upside, risky addition that can distinguish a mid-market squad trying to surmount an established behemoth like the Phillies. Elsewhere, Coco Crisp, while not much of a hitter these days, would provide a lower-cost upgrade over the incumbents.

New York Yankees: starting rotation

The Yankees’ offense can forgive many a pitching sin, and, despite its age, that offense should again be potent in 2012. With that said, the Yanks will have rotation concerns, and that will be the case even if they’re able to retain CC Sabathia.

They can hope A.J. Burnett achieves tolerability, and they can hope that Phil Hughes is able to stay healthy. They can also hope that pups like Dellin Betances and Manny Banuelos can contribute. Even so, they’re still likely to need established help behind Sabathia and Ivan Nova. So long as Sabathia is back, they can lower their aim a bit. A veteran capable of 180 to 200 innings and league-average-ish ERA will suffice given the front end and given the likely run support. To that end, possibilities include Edwin Jackson, Paul Maholm or, best of all, Hiroki Kuroda.

In the absence of Sabathia? Then the Yankees will need to make at least one splash addition. Unfortunately for their purposes, this year’s free-agent crop is light on such hurlers. C.J. Wilson leads all comers, and then there’s Mark Buehrle or perhaps the tantalizing promise of Japanese phenom Yu Darvish. It’s obvious the Yankees will add an arm; the question is how much they will spend. If they go all in, Darvish is probably the play.

If both League Championship Series are any guide, the bullpens of the St. Louis Cardinals and Texas Rangers will play important roles in determining the World Series champion.

The Cardinals’ bullpen weakened the powerful Milwaukee Brewers lineup in the NLCS, posting a 1.88 ERA for the series. Even more noteworthy is that in the NLCS, the Cardinals’ bullpen worked more innings (28 2/3) than and threw almost as many pitches (431) as the St. Louis starters (24 1/3 innings and 450 pitches). St. Louis’ rotation yielded zero quality starts, only one outing of at least five innings and only one win. It’s a minor miracle that despite such lousy starting pitching, the Cardinals won the series in six games and outscored the Brewers 43-26. Their story, rare though it may be, is not unlike Texas’. In their six-game ALCS triumph, the Rangers also benefited from uncommon bullpen excellence (1.32 ERA) and an uncommon bullpen workload (27 1/3 innings and 391 pitches). Viva la pitching changes!

There’s also a flip side to all of this: The Rangers are moving on despite an ALCS rotation ERA of 6.59 and the Cardinals despite an NLCS rotation ERA of 7.03. If the Philadelphia Phillies’ early exit didn’t kill off the “starting pitching uber alles” strain of postseason thought, these LCS outcomes surely will. At least for 2011.

All of these improbabilities raise a question looking forward: Who has the bullpen edge in the World Series?

In the regular season, the Cardinals ranked 11th in the 16-team NL with a bullpen ERA of 3.73. However, the worst Cardinals relievers during the regular season will play no role in the World Series. If you remove from the calculus the numbers of Ryan Franklin, Miguel Batista, Bryan Augenstein, Maikel Cleto, P.J. Walters, Brian Tallet, Trever Miller and, um, Skip Schumaker (Aug. 23!), the bullpen ERA drops to 2.83. In other words, the bullpen that the Cardinals will trot out for the 107th World Series will be very, very good.

What’s particularly encouraging from St. Louis’ standpoint is that its current relievers are stingy when it comes to giving up homers. Against the Texas offense, which ranked second in the majors in home runs, that will serve them well, especially when the scene shifts to Arlington. The Cardinals have plenty of impact right-handed arms to counter righty power bats like ALCS MVP Nelson Cruz, Adrian Beltre and Mike Napoli, who, on a rate basis, was one of the best hitters in baseball this season.

From the left side there’s Marc Rzepczynski, who has been incredibly effective since adjusting his arm slot. There’s also Arthur Rhodes, but he’s been ineffective even in his limited role. On the upside, Josh Hamilton is Texas’ only power left-handed bat, and he’s hardly himself these days. Also, the Rangers likely won’t have any switch-hitters on their World Series roster.

The real key in the middle and later innings is that the Cards could blunt the Rangers’ right-handed attack with right-handers like Jason Motte, Lance Lynn, Fernando Salas, Octavio Dotel and Mitchell Boggs. The series could hinge on that strength-versus-strength subplot.

For Texas, things are similarly promising. The Rangers ranked a meager 12th in the American League in bullpen ERA this season, but if you look at runs per game to eliminate the mostly pointless distinction between earned and unearned runs, the Texas ‘pen improves to fifth in the AL. Alexi Ogando, assuming he’s deployed as a reliever in the World Series, provides a nifty upgrade over what was in place for most of the regular season, and Neftali Feliz has emerged as one of the elite relief arms in baseball.

With Ogando spending the summer in the rotation, Rangers GM Jon Daniels buttressed his relief corps by acquiring right-handers Mike Adams and Koji Uehara at the non-waiver trade deadline. Adams has pitched in line with his excellent career norms, but Uehara has struggled to keep the ball in the park. That’s not surprising given his fly-ball tendencies, but he could be useful when the situation demands a strikeout. Depth from the left side is a concern for Texas, but the same goes for St. Louis.

Given recent events, workloads could be worrisome. These, of course, are cumulative matters, so it’s worth noting that in the full light of the regular season, the Rangers are much better off in terms of games pitched, multiple-inning appearances, appearances on consecutive days and total number of relief innings and pitches.

All things considered, rating the teams’ relief corps appears to be a perilously close call. Both bullpens as presently assembled are better than the overall numbers would suggest, and both are coming off heavy, stressful usage. Still, give the slight edge to the Cardinals because of how their young and outstanding relief arms match up with the driving forces of the Texas offense.

The Milwaukee Brewers, St. Louis Cardinals and the open-roof jet stream at Miller Park combined for 15 runs in the opener of the NLCS (a 9-6 Milwaukee win), and the Texas Rangers, Detroit Tigers and the rain cloud that follows Justin Verlander wherever he goes lately yielded a 3-2 Texas victory in the ALCS.

And so the American League and National League championship series have unfolded similarly: The home team won Game 1.

There is, of course, a self-evident advantage to winning Game 1: The team that takes the opener needs to play merely .500 ball during the remainder of the series in order to advance. The team that loses Game 1, meanwhile, must win at least four of six, which is — breaking news to follow — substantially more difficult. In fact, over the sprawling history of the seven-game series in baseball, the Game 1 winner takes the series a shade less than 66 percent of the time.

But what happens when, as in the cases of the Brewers and Rangers, the team that wins Game 1 is also the team in possession of home-field advantage? Is the distinction significant?

In the history of the best-of-seven League Championship Series (meaning from 1985 — when the LCS expanded from a best-of-five format to the current best-of-seven — through 2010), if the home team wins Game 1, then that team goes on to win the series 61.5 percent of the time. And in the history of the best-of-seven World Series (the 1903 and 1919-1921 seasons have been omitted because of the best-of-nine format, which is sadly no longer with us), the home team that wins Game 1 takes the entire affair 69 percent of the time.

So, for whatever reason(s), Game 1 outcomes are somewhat less predictive in the LCS than they are in the World Series and, by extension, the postseason as a whole. Why would this be the case? Answering this question is a speculative exercise.

Perhaps familiarity with the opposition and the opposition’s home park contributes to those compressed winning percentages? Perhaps it’s the similar roster construction (NL teams have no need to plan for the DH, and AL teams have no need to plan for batting the pitcher) that plays a role? Perhaps it’s the function of a limited sample size (just 26 series meet the criteria)?

Whatever the elements in play, combine the data pools (i.e., lump together all best-of-seven series) and the home team that wins the opener goes on to win the series 66.7 percent of the time, which is roughly the same percentage for all Game 1 winners. In other words, teams that win the series opener go on to win the whole thing about two-thirds of the time, regardless of whether it is the home or road team. It’s the mere winning of Game 1 that matters greatly, not where that win occurs.

Additionally, the value of winning Game 1 of a series is less in a seven-game series than in one with only five games. But even so, the Brewers and Rangers now have the advantage by jumping out to 1-0 starts, and they have the aforementioned odds in their favor.

Winning Game 1? A very good thing. Winning Game 1 as the home team? That’s irrelevant, as it turns out.

Both American League Division Series stand at 1-1, and that provides us with at least two key considerations. First, both series are now, for all intents and purposes, best-of-three series; and second, the lower-seeded team in each series now enjoys home-field advantage. Given these facts, is it time to recalibrate our expectations as far as the Detroit Tigers-New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays-Texas Rangers series are concerned? The short answer: yes.

Here’s how the pitching matchups for rest of the Tigers-Yankees series will look:

Game 3 — CC Sabathia vs. Justin Verlander
(at Detroit)
Game 4 — A.J. Burnett vs. Rick Porcello
(at Detroit)
Game 5 (if necessary) — TBD vs. Doug Fister (at New York)

That suspension of Game 1 on Friday night pushed each team’s ace back to Game 3 and switched the venue. The latter consequence won’t mean much to Verlander, who hasn’t shown any home-road tendencies of note this season. The same goes for Sabathia.

Comerica Park, however, may present some challenges to the Yankees’ offense. They’ll be facing a pair of right-handers in Detroit, and that means Mark Teixeira and Nick Swisher will be batting from the left side. While both players hit for more power as left-handed batters, Comerica greatly suppresses the power numbers of left-handed batters. For park factors, a score of 100 is average. And as you can see in the link, Comerica has a home run park factor of 88 for left-handed hitters, which is well below average (lower numbers favor pitchers). In fact, only one AL park — Kauffman Stadium — has cut down on lefty home runs to a greater extent. In contrast, Yankee Stadium is, by a rather absurd margin, the most accommodating environment in all of baseball for left-handed power hitters with a left-handed home run factor of 143. Some Yankees hitters — Curtis Granderson and Robinson Cano, in addition to Teixeira and Swisher — will suffer as a result. For an offense that depends heavily on lefty power, this is not good news.

While the sample size is quite small, it’s also worth noting that the Yankees went 1-3 in Comerica Park during the season and scored just 10 total runs in those four games. Quite possibly, that’s because Comerica’s peculiarities dovetail with those of the 2011 Yankees.

The other, perhaps larger consequence of the Game 1 rainout is that Burnett (5.20 ERA over the last two years) will be given a start. Ideally for their purposes, the Yankees would have been able to give a pair of starts to Sabathia and thus avoid inflicting Burnett upon themselves and the world at large. Instead, Burnett will pitch Game 4 in Detroit, which will be one team’s chance to close it out. Burnett, of course, has induced more hand-wrings in 2011 than any pitcher not named John Lackey.

Indeed, Burnett has struggled mightily away from home, and he’s struggled more mightily still against right-handed batters (and this has generally been the case throughout his career). Righties had an .831 OPS against him this year, while lefties have a .777 mark. Those trends will work against him in Game 4. The Tigers, if manager Jim Leyland chooses to do so, can lard the lineup with right-handed hitters such as Miguel Cabrera, Jhonny Peralta, Magglio Ordonez, Austin Jackson and Delmon Young. If the Tigers want to get crazy, they might even have switch-hitter Victor Martinez bat from the right side against Burnett. Martinez has a line of .368 AVG /.478 OBP/.579 SLG against righties as a right-handed hitter in his career (in just 23 plate appearances). Presumably, that’s mostly come against knuckleballers, but Burnett’s splits are such that it’s worth discussing.

Based on the fact that the Yankees’ primary offensive strength is neutralized by Comerica Park, and the fact that they will be forced to use Burnett, the Tigers are legitimate favorites to win each of the next two games.

Rays-Rangers

Game 3 — Colby Lewis vs. David Price (at Tampa Bay)
Game 4 — Matt Harrison vs. Jeremy Hellickson (at Tampa Bay)
Game 5 (if necessary) — James Shields vs. C.J. Wilson (at Texas)

Lewis, a right-hander, likes to pitch on the road (3.43 ERA on the road this year, 5.54 at home), and he likes to face same-side hitters (.616 OPS against). On the flip side, Price could struggle against the righty-heavy Texas lineup: In his career, righties have homered once every 37 plate appearances against Price, while lefties have gone yard once every 63 PAs. So while Price is a better pitcher overall, the location of the game and the makeup of the Rangers’ lineup make this pitching matchup a lot more even than it appears at first glance.

With that said, the Rays will have an edge in Game 4. Hellickson gets to pitch Game 4 at home, where his numbers are uniformly better this season, and, as mentioned, the Rangers’ lineup is almost exclusively right-handed, which will benefit him.

And that brings us to Game 5. Rookie sensation Matt Moore utterly tamed the Rangers in Game 1, but Rays manager Joe Maddon is still saying that Shields will be his Game 5 starter if he needs one. It’s hard to properly analyze this game without knowing the starting pitcher, and Moore is proving to be this October’s big X factor.

We know the Rangers will start Wilson, one of this season’s most effective pitchers. However, despite his recent credentials, Wilson was abused in Game 1 opposite Moore, so the usual narrative of “playoff veteran versus untested rookie” yielded unanticipated results. And Wilson, in the regular season and his lone 2011 postseason start, has, by his own standards, struggled at home (3.69 ERA at home, 2.31 away).

In the end, this remains the most difficult series to predict. If pressed, bet on Texas’ superior offense, underrated back-end relief corps and solid rotation to carry the day, but Moore could change everything.

It would seem to be an easy choice. After all, in the 2010 ALCS the New York Yankees were thumped in six games by the Texas Rangers. So it follows that the Yankees, in the 2011 postseason, would prefer to avoid the incumbent American League champs for as long as possible — if not entirely.

Of course, with the AL wild card almost certain to come from the East Division, that means the Yankees will play either the Detroit Tigers or those menacing Rangers in the ALDS. Right now, Texas has a one-game lead on Detroit, and if that holds, the Yankees will face the Tigers. And while that might seem like good news for the Bronx Bombers, it’s actually not. In fact, the Rangers are a far more accommodating matchup for the Yankees than the Tigers.

Is this just idle talk from the idle contrarian? Far from it. In this case, the numbers bear it out.

First and most obviously are the regular-season results. This season, the Yankees are 7-2 against the Rangers with a run differential of plus-27. Against the Tigers, meantime, the Yankees are 3-4 with a run differential of minus-3.

The Yankees’ offense, of course, is a power attack. They pace the majors in homers (217) by a spacious margin. More specifically, when Yankees hitters put the ball in the air, the ball tends to cross the outfield fence quite often, at least in relative terms. When it comes to home runs per fly ball, the Yankees lead the majors, again with a cushion.

All these tendencies of New York hitters wouldn’t be terribly relevant if they didn’t dovetail quite nicely with the tendencies of Texas pitchers. Miracle of miracles, it turns out they do! The Texas staff ranks fourth in the 14-team AL in fly-ball rate, which, one may surmise, is not a good thing when facing the Yankees. Worse still is that the Rangers’ staff yields the third-highest HR/FB rate in the AL. All of that, to summon a related metaphor, is in the Yankees’ wheelhouse.

Some of that latter figure is, of course, owing to the character of the Rangers’ home ballpark, but we’re not concerned with neutral context in this instance. Rather, we’re concerned with how the Rangers’ staff will fare against the cloutin’ Yankees lineup in homer-friendly Arlington and almost-as-homer-friendly Yankee Stadium. The expectation based on recent history is: not well.

On the flip side, the Rangers’ offense is much like New York’s in that Texas batters hit home runs (second to the Yanks in the majors) and hit a high rate of homers per fly ball (also second to the Yanks in the majors). However, the Yankees’ staff isn’t similarly inclined to help them out. Yankees pitchers, unlike their Rangers counterparts, keep the ball on the ground (second-lowest fly-ball percentage in the AL) and do a significantly better job when it comes to preventing home runs on fly balls. And if this series comes to pass, then it will likely come to just that.

Depending on how the Rangers structure their ALDS rotation, the Yankees could face a lefty four times in a potential set that goes the full five games. In a five-game series, the Yanks would face lefty ace C.J. Wilson twice and fellow lefties Derek Holland and Matt Harrison, provided Holland and Harrison are both part of the ALDS rotation. That’s four lefties in five games. At a minimum, the Yankees would face a left-handed starter three times in a five-game series against Texas.

The significance, as you might have guessed, is that the Yankees have crushed left-handed pitching this season. In fact, Yankees batsmen lead the AL versus lefties in … deep breath … home runs (there’s that one again), OBP, SLG (and OPS!), wOBA, wRC+, wRAA and HR/FB (there’s that one again). Or, stated another way, they lead the AL versus lefties in quite a lot of things. This is not good news for Texas.

And what of those alternative Tigers? Contrary to what the Yankees would prefer, Detroit pitchers do not give up many fly balls and do not surrender many home runs on the fly balls they do permit. Furthermore, the Tigers will have no lefties in their playoff rotation. Plus, there’s the whole “two lethal doses of Justin Verlander in a short series” consideration.

So despite what you might think, the Yankees should be pulling for the Tigers this week so that they can play the defending AL champs in the ALDS.

There is a time for measured, philosophic calm, and there is a time for unrestrained panic. In Boston, it is time for the latter.

Despite a recent bevy of championships in a bevy of different sports, Boston and environs remain, to a large extent, home to the stricken Calvinist. As such, what’s unfolded over the past several days has left Boston Red Sox fans lost in a state of misery and in the embrace of worst-case scenarios.

What, exactly, has unfolded over the last several days? Those plucky Tampa Bay Rays, despite being outfitted with a payroll that’s roughly 26 percent of Boston’s, have hawked down the Red Sox in the AL wild-card chase and now sit two games back of Boston. Central to those developments is the fact that Tampa Bay has taken five of six from the Red Sox.

So how did such a thing come to pass? On the Boston side of things, it’s been a systemic breakdown. However, the pitching staff has been even worse: Boston starters, already hobbled beyond recognition, are lugging around a 6.37 ERA for the month, and Boston relievers over that same span have an aggregate ERA of 5.81. Hence that 4-13 record in September.

However, it’s not just the pitching that is at fault. The Boston offense is presently posting its worst monthly OPS since April. Dustin Pedroia has been particularly abysmal. He entered the season’s final month as an MVP candidate, but is hitting just .217 in September with 14 strikeouts and two walks. He had 66 whiffs and 80 bases on balls entering the month. The Rays were also able to take advantage of a major Sox weakness by swiping 11 bases in 13 attempts over the weekend. Boston has allowed an MLB-worst 142 steals on the season.

Given these trends and the afflicted state of the Boston roster, most of us expect the Rays to overtake the Sox and claim the AL wild card for the first time in franchise history. Seems inevitable, no? Yet despite all that’s been said about Boston’s current problems and Tampa Bay’s current merits, Boston’s probably going to be fine. For now.

Yes, a two-game lead, particularly considering what’s happened over the past fortnight, seems vanishingly thin. But this late in the season, it’s not. The Red Sox and Rays each have 10 games left to play in the regular season, and at this late hour any lead is a substantial one. To put a finer point on it, even after Sunday’s outcomes, the Sox have a 90.3 percent chance of making the postseason and the Rays an 8.6 percent chance of doing the same. Adjust those figures based on momentum and health if you like, but the Sox will remain heavy favorites to prevail. And they’ve got something else going for them besides the math — the schedule.

Here’s what’s ahead for the Red Sox: BAL, BAL, BAL, BAL, @NYY, @NYY, @NYY, @BAL, @BAL, @BAL.

And here’s what’s ahead for Tampa Bay: @NYY, @NYY, @NYY, @NYY, TOR, TOR, TOR, NYY, NYY, NYY.

The Red Sox will play seven more games against the lowly Orioles, against whom they are 8-3 in 2011. The Rays, meanwhile, will play their final 10 games against teams that have an average winning percentage of .574. To state the obvious, the Rays have a significantly tougher final stretch than the Red Sox do, and that’s the case even if the Yankees are in “cruise control” mode for the final series of the regular season and decide to rest their regulars.

Based on the Red Sox schedule, it’s hard to imagine them doing any worse than 5-5 over their next 10 games. (Remember, Josh Beckett is back.) Therefore, the Rays would need to go 7-3 just to tie the Red Sox and force a one-game playoff. And based on their slate, a 6-4 record is always a likely outcome for Boston, which would mean the Rays would need to go 8-2 to tie Boston. Possible? Sure. Likely? Not really.

In sum, despite what you hear and feel, the Red Sox, buttressed by a two-game lead and a far more accommodating docket of games, are very likely to prevail in the AL wild-card race. Trends notwithstanding, the Rays simply are running out of time. And nothing portends triumph in a tight race quite like playing the Orioles in 70 percent of your remaining games, which describes the Red Sox.

Torrents — torrents! — of ink, bandwidth and tears have been spilled over the New York Yankees’ rotation concerns. Yet there’s another AL East colossus saddled by pitching worries, and those worries might be more serious than those of the Yankees., particularly when you factor in the hard-charging Tampa Bay Rays.

The Boston Red Sox rank eighth in the American League in runs allowed, but the current state of affairs is even more grim. Despite having a puncher’s chance to finish the season with the best record in the American League, the Sox envy the pitching certainties of the Yankees. Consider that if the postseason started today, the Boston rotation would consist of Jon Lester and & hmmm.

Josh Beckett? He’s been Boston’s best starter on a rate basis this season, but he’s presently sidelined with a bum ankle and likely won’t return until next weekend at the earliest. There’s also Beckett’s substantial injury history to consider (he’s been on the disabled list 13 times in his career, and last season he lost 75 days to injury). He’s just not durable, so there’s no guarantee that Beckett will be able to remain healthy and effective once he does return.

Clay Buchholz? He may have the most raw ability of anyone on the Boston staff, but he hasn’t pitched since mid-June because of a back injury. Buchholz could throw from a mound this week. However, even if he is able to return this season, the Sox may be forced to deploy him as a reliever.

John Lackey? He’s been one of the worst starters in baseball this season. Despite having worked just 144 1/3 innings, Lackey has given up the most earned runs in the league (and, in a related matter, he’s hit the most batsmen). All you really need to know, however, is that opponents this season are hitting .304/.373/.484 against Lackey.

Stated in rough terms, Lackey turns every opposing hitter into something a little better than Kevin Youkilis. But wait, there’s more! Lackey has just two quality starts in the second half, and his September ERA stands at a foul-smelling 12.38. At this point, it can legitimately be asked whether Lackey even merits a spot on the postseason roster, should such a thing be necessary.

Tim Wakefield? The franchise stalwart, it would seem, has been in search of career win 200 since the men of Boston wore powdered wigs, and, with a WAR of 0.7, Wakefield has been effective only by the low standards of Mr. Lackey.

Also, if you’re the sort to value playoff performance as a meaningful indicator, then note that Wakefield is lugging around a career postseason ERA of 6.75.

Elsewhere, Erik Bedard (nine career DL stints) is laid up with knee and lat problems and has no clear timetable for a return. Andrew Miller has a 5.58 ERA in Boston, and Daisuke Matsuzaka (remember him?) is still rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and won’t begin light throwing until the middle of October.

Accordingly, symptoms of desperation abound: Kyle Weiland is part of the stretch-drive rotation, and Alfredo Aceves might soon be forced back into the rotation.

Suddenly, the Yankees’ straits — a rotation of CC Sabathia plus a gumbo of lesser alternatives — seem downright enviable. Unless Boston is willing to trot out Lester on short rest, it will need four starters in each playoff series. Can you find four worthies within this mess? No, you cannot.

Of course, as a consequence of all this carnage and lousiness, the Sox have more to fret over than their playoff rotation.

First, they must concern themselves with reaching the postseason. Coming off a devitalizing sweep in Tampa, the Red Sox are now as close to the Tampa Bay Rays in the standings as they are to the Yankees. A 3 1/2 game lead in mid-September — which is the wild-card margin the Red Sox presently cling to — is still substantial, so it’s likely (though hardly assured) that Boston will be part of the playoff fray. But, simply put, this is not a good rotation right now.

If the Sox survive the four-game set against Tampa Bay that starts Thursday, they’ll likely back into the playoffs via the AL wild-card berth. But unless the rotation gets healthier in a hurry, they could be poised for a quick and quiet exit.

After a headline-dominating offseason, that would be quite contrary to expectations and design.

Bold, sweeping declaration: The 2011 Philadelphia Phillies are good at baseball.

At present, the Phillies boast a hefty run differential of +174 (second to only the Yankees) and are on pace for a franchise-record 106 wins. Chief among their many merits? One of the best rotations you’ve ever seen. Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee are both Cy Young worthies, and Cole Hamels has been roughly their equal when healthy. Even Vance Worley has thrived in spot duty.

Given the strength of the Phillies’ starting pitching and given that they’ll almost certainly enjoy home-field advantage throughout the postseason, consider them the favorites for the belt and the title.

Of course, no such thing as a fait accompli in baseball. The short playoff series lends itself quite nicely to fluke-ish outcomes and minor miracles. In a game with so much structural, built-in parity, nothing is to be assumed in October. But beyond those annual considerations, do the Phillies, the best team in baseball, have a soft, hidden underbelly that could be exploited in the postseason?

One would expect a team playing .657 ball to do lots of things well, but is that the case with the ‘11 Phillies. The numbers sayeth …

Statistic Phillies 2011 NL Rank
wRC+ 5th
Rotation WAR 1st
Bullpen WAR 10th
UZR 12th

To the surprise of no one, Philly’s weapons-grade rotation tops the loop in WAR. But the rest is something of a mixed bag.

The bullpen seems to be a problem, no? However, consider that, because of Philly’s ability to pitch deeply into games, they’ve logged the fewest bullpen innings of any NL squad (Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, and others will tend to do that for you). So the sample size is not as large as you might think, and, because of the strength of that rotation, the Phillies depend upon their bullpen less than most. As well, consider that the Phillies were without the services of Brad Lidge until late July. So while the bullpen would seem to be lacking, the Philllies, thus far, haven’t suffered as a result.

The defense, according the UZR, doesn’t grade out especially well, but consider that, a, Philly pitchers tend to miss a lot of bats and, b, even at the team level one year (or less) of defensive data may not mean too much.

As for the Philadelphia offensive attack, it’s mostly a matter of not hitting left-handers …

Statistic Phillies 2011 Rank

wRC+ vs. RHP 5th
wRC+ vs. LHP 11th

Such a split is not surprising, perhaps, on a team whose top right-handed power source is part-timer John Mayberry. And this is the case despite the fact that Citizens’ Bank Park tends to be a fairly accommodating environment for right-handed power hitters (who, in turn and of course, tend to hit lefties fairly well). And even so, the Phillies are much less potent when a port-sider is on the mound for the opposition. This raises the matter of whether this particular Philly weakness might be exploited during the postseason.

Now let us state the obvious: to be exploited by a lefty, one must first face a lefty. The good news for the Phillies is that, among likely NL playoff opponents, no team has a bounty of left-handed starters. The Arizona Diamondbacks, who will almost certainly face the Phillies in the NLDS, have only Joe Saunders from the left side. The Milwaukee Brewers have Randy Wolf and Chris Narveson, but Narveson is unlikely to be part of the playoff rotation. As for the Atlanta Braves, no lefty figures to be a postseason starter.

If the Phillies do as expected and make the World Series? Largely, the story continues. The Red Sox? One lefty likely in the playoff rotation. The Yankees? Same story. The Tigers? Not a single lefthander to be found. The “sum of all fears” scenario, however, is an encounter with the reigning AL-champion Texas Rangers. The Rangers, one might notice, will perhaps trot out three lefthanders in the playoffs, and two of those lefthanders — C.J. Wilson and Matt Harrison — are the Rangers’ most effective starters. Scaled across a seven-game series, that might come to five starts against lefties. Suffice it to say, the Phillies would prefer other circumstances. They might, for instance, prefer that the AL West flag go to the Angels, who, like the Tigers, have no lefties in the rotation.

Of course, Philly might well prevail regardless of opponent. But for the smoothest road ahead, the Phaithful should summon their energies against a possible World Series match-up with the Rangers.