Archive for ESPN Insider 2012

Matchup to Watch: Brandon Moss vs Phil Coke

The A’s don’t have a ton of power from the left side, and the Tigers don’t have much left-handed pitching, so this series is going to be a battle of right-handers, but the two prominent lefties might end up deciding things. Moss slugged .643 versus right-handed pitching but just .431 against lefties this year, so you can bet that Jim Leyland is going to target his lefty specialist to face the A’s toughest slugging lefty as many times as possible in the series. Because of Coke’s problems against right-handers — they hit .381/.446/.604 against him this year — Moss is probably the only batter he’ll face all series. These two should get used to seeing each other.

A’s X-Factor: George Kottaras

Like Moss, Kottaras will also benefit from the right-handed heavy pitching staff that Detroit leans upon, and should end up spending most of the time behind the plate for the A’s. He has 21 home runs in 541 career plate appearances against right-handed pitching, so while he’s not going to hit for a high average, he’s capable of turning around a fastball and providing some production from the bottom of the order.

Tigers X-Factor: Austin Jackson

For the first four months of the season, Jackson may have the Tigers best position player, as he added power and posted a .400 OBP, providing the opportunity for the big boys to drive in a lot of runs. He faded a bit in August and September, however, looking more like the decent hitter with some OBP issues he’d been in previous years. Last year, opposing pitchers dominated Jackson in the postsesaon, exploiting his contact issues to limit him to just a .195/.327/.317 line. His improvement in the first half of the year suggests that he can do better this year, but he’ll need to get back to the things that made him successful earlier in the season.

A’s Key Reliever: Sean Doolittle

It’s amazing that a converted position player could become so good so quickly, but in Doolittle’s first year of pitching, he’s become a dominant left-handed reliever, and one of the key parts of the A’s bullpen. Interestingly enough, though, he posted a large reverse platoon split, and was much better against right-handed batters than lefties. This attribute should let him go multiple innings if need be, and Bob Melvin shouldn’t be afraid to let him go through the heart of the Tigers order – he’s got as good a chance of retiring Miguel Cabrera as he does of getting Prince Fielder out.

Tigers Key Reliever: Joaquin Benoit

Jim Leyland leaned on Benoit very heavily last October, but given his second half meltdown — he’s allowed 11 home runs since the start of July — it will be interesting to see if he’ll be given as much responsibility this year. Most of the rest of the Tigers bullpen is primarily made up of match-up guys, so Benoit’s ability to get both right-handers and left-handers out could prove to be pivotal, but his gopheritis this year suggests that asking him to protect a late lead for too long could go horribly wrong in a hurry. The Tigers need Benoit to be the guy he was last year, not the guy he’s been in the second half of this year.

A’s Key Bench Player: Chris Carter

With Seth Smith as the starting DH against right-handed pitchers, Carter will be limited to pinch-hitting duties in this series. If Cliff Pennington comes to bat in a key situation, look for Carter to pop out of the dugout and provide a little more pressure on the Tigers pitchers. While he strikes out a lot, Carter may very well be the best pinch-hitter on anyone’s bench in the playoffs, with his power giving him the chance to change a game or two.

Tigers Key Bench Player: Ramon Santiago

This is almost a selection by default, as the rest of the Tigers bench is not much look to at. In fact, the Tigers lack of depth beyond their starters was one of their key problems this year, and Leyland is likely to just ride his starters for as long as he can. Santiago can serve as a pinch-runner in a key situation, but beyond that, don’t expect to see many of Detroit’s reserves in this series. They’re just not good enough to be featured in games with this kind of meaning.

Most Important Stat: Tigers starters, 82 ERA-

Justin Verlander, Doug Fister, Max Scherzer, and Anibal Sanchez combined to prevent runs at a rate that was 18 percent better than the league average this year. To put that in context, that’s essentially the same rate put up by Felix Hernandez and CC Sabathia this year. The Tigers starters are the best group that any team takes into October, and while they’re not quite up to the Phillies level from the past few years, they’re pretty close. The A’s offense has been surprisingly good in the second half of the year, but they’re in for a stiff challenge, as there just isn’t a weak spot in this Detroit rotation.

Modest Proposal: Jose Valverde should not be asked to begin the 9th if an LHB is due up.

While Valverde is the Tigers capital-C Closer, he’s really a right-handed specialist masquerading in that role. He only struck out 21 left-handed batters all season (against 19 walks), and his problems holding leads have mostly come when he’s been asked to retire a series of guys who bat from the opposite side. If a left-hander is due up to start the inning, the Tigers are better off sticking with Benoit for one additional batter, then handing the ball to Valverde to go after the righties. The A’s don’t have the same amount of scary left-handed bats that others do, but Leyland should still protect his closer as best he can, and that means not using him for the entire ninth inning if a right-hander isn’t due up first.

Prediction: Tigers in five.

Matchup to Watch: Buster Posey vs Aroldis Chapman

Posey put together an amazing offensive season that is likely going to end with the NL MVP trophy on his mantle, but he did most of his damage against left-handed pitching, hitting .433/.470/.793 against southpaws on the year. Conversely, he only hit .292/.382/.440 against right-handed pitching, which is a nice line but not overly spectacular. The Reds pitching staff is heavily right-handed, so Posey’s chances to tee off on a left-hander is only likely to happen if he gets a chance to face the Reds flamethrowing closer. While Chapman was excellent for the Reds this season, 10 of the 12 extra base hits — and all four of the home runs — he allowed were against righties this year. Conventional wisdom will tell Dusty Baker to bring Chapman in to face whoever is coming up in the ninth inning, but if he has a chance to get Posey out with a right-hander before going to Chapman, he should take advantage of it. The Reds don’t have to let Posey face a lefty the entire series, and can mitigate the Giants main offensive weapon if they simply keep throwing right-handers at him, saving Chapman for everyone else in the line-up.

Giants X-Factor: Brandon Belt

Bruce Bochy has talked about having Hector Sanchez catch Tim Lincecum for his comfort level, but doing so would force Buster Posey to first base and Brandon Belt to the bench. With the Reds rotation featuring all right-handed pitching, the Giants can’t afford to sit one of their few quality left-handed bats in favor of their backup catcher. Belt needs to start each game, and if that means Lincecum has to throw to Posey, so be it.

Reds X-Factor: Bronson Arroyo

Arroyo is being given the chance to start in Game 2 of the series, meaning that he’s also going to be lined up to start game 5 if the Reds stay with just a three man rotation. Arroyo had a strong comeback season after a disastrous 2011, but is still prone to giving up home runs, and could put Baker in a tough situation if he gives up a few long balls early. With Mat Latos available, the Reds are taking a risk in lining up Arroyo to get the ball in a potential deciding fifth game, and Arroyo’s going to have to keep the ball in the yard for this decision to not look like a mistake.

Giants Key Reliever: Jose Mijares

The Giants acquired Mijares for the stretch run to help them deal with dangerous left-handers, and the Reds have the most dangerous left-handed hitter in the game in Joey Votto. Mijares held left-handed batters to a .205/.269/.317 line this season, but he’s going to be asked to get Votto out multiple times in this series, a tall task for even the toughest lefty reliever.

Reds Key Reliever: Jonathan Broxton

The Reds bullpen is a bit strange, in that the two best relievers down there are both left-handed and that all the important right-handers were better against left-handed batters than right-handers this season. However, with the Giants mashing lefties this year, the Reds are going to have to maximize their right-on-right match-ups, and that will mean using guys like Broxton to go after Marco Scutaro, Buster Posey, and Hunter Pence. With a strong fastball and a decent slider, Broxton should be better against right-handers than he was this season. He’ll need to be for the Reds to get some big outs late in games in this series.

Giants Key Bench Player: Aubrey Huff

Huff had a lost season and his potential inclusion on the playoff roster is a source of controversy, but the Giants don’t have any other left-handed power on their bench. Perhaps Huff doesn’t possess the kind of thump he used to have either, but Bruce Bochy is going to need someone to pinch-hit against right-handers, and there aren’t any other obvious options behind San Francisco’s regular starters. The team’s lack of pinch-hitting depth is a problem, and they’ll likely look to Huff for a miracle comeback after a miserable 2012 campaign.

Reds Key Bench Player: Xavier Paul

Paul was very effective against right-handed pitching down the stretch, and even spent a little time in center field, where Drew Stubbs has been mostly ineffective this season. If Stubbs comes to bat in a critical situation early in the game, Dusty Baker should not hesitate to use Paul to pinch-hit for Stubbs. The defensive downgrade might hurt later, but Paul can hit right-handed pitching, something that cannot be said for Stubbs.

Most Important Stat: Giants 81.7% contact rate on swings

The Giants offense posted the fourth best contact rate in baseball this year, producing offense through consistently putting the bat on the ball. The Reds bullpen allowed the lowest rate of contact of any relief corps in baseball, limiting hitters to just 73.7% contact on the season. Late in games, it’s going to be strength versus strength, with the Reds relievers trying to throw the ball past Giants hitters who are very good at putting the ball in play. The best way to protect a late lead is to simply strike everyone out, but San Francisco is the toughest playoff team to accomplish that against.

Modest Proposal: Todd Frazier should start at third base for the Reds over Scott Rolen.

Baker favors the veteran for his experience and his defense, but Frazier clearly outperformed Rolen when he was given a chance to play during the regular season. Rolen’s glove still has value, but shouldn’t stand in the way of one of the Reds best hitters getting a chance to drive in runs. Rolen can be used as a late game defensive replacement, giving Baker the advantage of improved defense when protecting leads, but if Cincinnati wants to maximize their chances of advancing past the first round, Frazier should be in the starting line-up.

Here’s the piece for tomorrow.

With the regular season winding down, those who won’t be playing in October are beginning to look forward to the Hot Stove season, and are picking through the list of free agents that will hit the market this coming winter. Part of that preparation is looking back at how previous free agents have fared after landing a big contract, and seeing what lessons can be learned from history. It turns out that the early results of last winter’s class holds some interesting lessons for those who are preparing to spend again this winter.

First, let’s just look at the free agents who had the best years in 2012 on the field. While first season performance doesn’t dictate whether a contract was a wise choice or not, these five players provided the largest boosts to their franchises with their play this year.

1. Aramis Ramirez, 3B, Milwaukee: 6.2 WAR

Ramirez was brought in to replace Fielder’s offense in Milwaukee, and he actually provided an upgrade over what the team got from their slugging first baseman the year before. Already 34, Ramirez is unlikely to repeat his career year, but swapping out Fielder for Ramirez looks like a net win for Milwaukee even before you consider the massive cost differences.

2. Aaron Hill, 2B, Arizona: 5.6 WAR

Another surprising result, Hill has been rejuvenated in Arizona, finding his early career power and supplementing it with a .300 average for the first time in his career. He’s cut down on his pop-ups and is driving the ball regularly, and there aren’t many second baseman in baseball who can match what Hill did at the plate this year.

3. Yu Darvish, SP, Texas: 4.9 WAR

While Darvish was not techncally a free agent, all teams had the option to bid on his rights, so for all intents and purposes, he was available to the highest bidder. His command has been up and down, but over the last six weeks, he’s been pounding the strike zone with nasty stuff, and his ability to keep the ball in the yard even when he’s struggling to throw strikes has allowed him to thrive in Texas.

4. Jimmy Rollins, SS, Philadelphia: 4.8 WAR

Rollins may be the surprising name on the list, but after a slow start to the year, he’s been a monster in the second half of the season, carrying the Phillies back into the playoff race despite injuries to Roy Halladay, Chase Utley, and Ryan Howard. Rollins ended up back in Philadelphia after finding the market for his services pretty dry, but in retrospect, teams should have been anxious to get one of the game’s best middle infielders away from the Phillies.

5. Prince Fielder, 1B, Detroit: 4.7 WAR

The Tigers haven’t played up to expectations this year, but don’t blame Fielder – he’s done his part, providing the kind of offensive complement to Miguel Cabrera that the Tigers were expecting when they gave him a massive contract to replace the injured Victor Martinez. How Fielder would hold up as he got older was always the concern, but the Tigers will take the value now and worry about the long term ramifications of the deal later.

Shopping in free agency isn’t just about getting the best results from the players you sign, however. Since teams have budgets to operate under, getting value for the dollar frees up money to spend on other players, so franchises can often be better off landing a couple of good players at bargain prices rather than focusing on trying to pay market value for one big name star. So, instead of simply looking at the best signings by total production, here are the best free agent values of last winter.

1. Fernando Rodney, RP, Tampa Bay: 1 year/$2 million AAV plus a team option – 2.2 WAR – $0.9 million per WAR

Rodney has an outside chance to best Dennis Eckersley’s 0.61 ERA in 1990, which currently stands as the lowest ERA any pitcher has produced in a full season in Major League history. Relievers in general are generally overvalued on the free agent market, but Rodney has been an amazing bargain, and perhaps the best part of the deal is that the Rays had the foresight to include a team option for 2013 in the contract, so Rodney can’t even cash in on his amazing performance this year.

2. Aaron Hill, 2B, Arizona: 2 years/$5.5 million Annual Average Value – 5.6 WAR – $1.0 million per WAR

The going rate for free agents last year was about $5 million per win, while Hill only cost $1 million per win, an 80% discount off the market rate. Keeping the deal to just two years minimized their risk last winter, but in retrospect, they probably wish they would have gotten him locked up for three or four years now. If he comes anywhere close to repeating his performance in 2013, he’s going to land a much, much bigger paycheck next time around.

3. Josh Willingham, OF, Minnesota: 3 years/$7 million AAV – 3.9 WAR – $1.8 million per WAR

Concerns about his age (33) along with the wrong-way trends of his walk and strikeout rates drove down Willingham’s price, but he didn’t take long to make teams regret passing on one of the cheapest sluggers to sign in the last few years. He’s set a career high with 35 home runs in part because he got his contact rates back under control, and is a reminder that trends don’t always continue on a straight line.

4. Aramis Ramirez, 3B, Milwaukee: 3 years/$12 million AAV – 6.2 WAR – $1.9 million per WAR

The most productive free agent of the winter signed for just $36 million total, or just 17 percent of the total that Detroit guaranteed Fielder over the life of his deal. In a market where offensive performance is heavily rewarded, it’s rare to see a power hitting run producer come out as such a bargain, but that’s exactly what the Brewers got in Ramirez.

5. Hiroki Kuroda, SP, New York: 1 year/$10 million AAV – 3.6 WAR – $2.7 million per WAR

Kuroda’s production in LA was viewed with skepticism, especially when Brian Cashman asked him to make the switch from the NL West to the AL East. However, Kuroda’s sinker has proven just as effective against stiffer opponents, and he’s been a stabilizing force in the Yankees rotation. Perhaps most interestingly, the Yankees make him a qualifying offer and receive a draft pick as compensation if he signs elsewhere this winter, so they’ll either get him back on an another low-risk one year contract or gain an additional prospect for the future.

The one key strand that runs through the top five values? They were all on the wrong side of 30 and presumed to be on the downside of their careers. Each came at a discount due to questions about their long term value, and whether they could sustain recent successes while adjusting to their advancing age. Teams willing to place bets on older free agents did very well last winter, receiving a large bang for the buck without having to enter into a long term commitment to improve their teams in the short term.

On July 1st, the San Diego Padres stood at 29-50, a worse mark than every team in baseball besides the Chicago Cubs. They’d been outscored by 80 runs, and simply looked like a team that was far from being competitive. Since that day, however, the Padres have won 42 of 70, a .600 winning percentage that is tied for the fifth best mark in baseball. The addition of top catching prospect Yasmani Grandal and a resurgent Cameron Maybin have the offense clicking, and their second half success has people talking about the Padres as contenders in 2013.

And certainly, the Padres do have several interesting young players, and their farm system was rated as the best in the game by Keith Law before the season started, so there are reasons for Friar-related optimism. However, before we get too carried away by their recent string of strong play, it would be helpful to know whether these kinds of second half surges have actually carried over to the following season.

Over the last five years, I found eight examples of teams that posted losing records before July 1st, but had a winning percentage at least 100 points higher in the final three months of the season than they did in the first three. While the Padres mid-season turn around seems unexpected based on how they played in the first three months of the year, this phenomenon happens pretty much every season, and sometimes multiple teams pull off large second half improvements in the same year.

So, how often did those gains carry over to the following season? Well, Padres fans, you might not want to read any further, because you’re probably not going to like the answer.

Of the eight clubs that had similar leaps, only one team — the 2008 Rockies — actually improved upon their second half winning percentage in the following year, and that example comes with a fairly large asterisk, because the 2007 Rockies team made it to the World Series. They started their NL title defense with a thud, and their second half rebound and subsequent 2009 improvement was more about returning to established levels of performance. The Rockies played poorly in the first half of 2008, but those were really their only poor stretch of baseball over a three year time period, so they don’t necessarily fit the model of an upstart team having a strong finish as a precursor to what is to come.

Besides that Colorado team, every other club played worse in the following season than they did during their second half improvement. Of course, there was far more room to go down than up, so perhaps that was to be expected, but the magnitude of the overall declines doesn’t speak particularly well for the Second Half Surge theory.

On average, the seven decliners lost 67 points off their second half winning percentage, dropping from a .548 aggregate winning percentage as a group to just .478 in the following year. The 2010 Braves had the smallest decline at 19 points — and they did manage to win the NL Wild Card, so perhaps you would like to count them as a success story as well — but they were also the best of the first half teams that we were examining, having posted a .474 winning percentage in the first three months of 2009.

Four of the seven posted losing records in their follow-up season, and two of them — the 2009 Indians and 2011 Astros — posted lower winning percentages in the next season than they did in the first half of the prior year. Overall, the .478 winning percentage posted by these teams in the season after their “Second Half Surge” was slightly lower than the .480 winning percentage they posted during the season in which they appeared to be two totally different clubs.

And perhaps that small difference is the real takeaway here. At the group level, these teams posted an almost identical record in the next season as they did to their total record in the prior year, suggesting that the first half record of a team that improves significantly is just as important as the second half data. Had we just used total season winning percentage as a predictor of next season winning percentage, we’d have hit the overall mark almost dead on for these eight teams.

The Padres play of late is certainly encouraging, but it doesn’t mean that we can just ignore all the problems that were on full display in the first three months of the season. If we want to understand how teams will do next year, we should look at their entire season as a whole, and not fall into the trap of putting too much weight on recent performance. The Padres may very well be a team on the rise, but their record since the calendar turned to July is simply not enough evidence to suggest that they should be penciled in for a playoff run in 2013.

With the regular season just a few weeks away, teams are beginning to have to make their off-season plans, at least as it pertains to players on their own roster. In situations where a player has a guaranteed contract, the decision of whether to retain them or not has already been made, but arbitration eligible players and guys who have team options for 2013 force teams to make often difficult decisions. Based on their performance and their 2013 salaries, here are the five toughest calls that teams are going to have to make this winter.

Jake Peavy, SP, Chicago White Sox – $22 million team option or $4 million buyout

While Adam Dunn and Alex Rios have both had big comebacks to spark the offense, Peavy’s return to prior form has been the biggest driver of the White Sox success this year. After dealing with a variety of arm problems, Peavy is going to throw 200 innings for the first time since 2007, and while he’s not quite as dominant as he was then, his K/BB ratio (3.89) is nearly the equal of Justin Verlander (3.93), and ranks seventh in the American League among qualified starters. He’s also the rare fly ball pitcher who can succeed in the White Sox home ballpark, and while it might seem like he’s been around forever, he doesn’t turn 32 until the end of May.

However, is a pitcher with Peavy’s track record of injuries worth $18 million (the net cost of retaining him, considering the presence of the buyout) for 2013? Last winter, Hiroki Kuroda only was able to land a one year, $11 million deal with a similar skillset, and while he was several years older, he didn’t have Peavy’s history of arm problems. It is a weak market for starting pitching, however, and Peavy could probably land a three or four year deal at a reduced annual average value if the White Sox grant him free agency. The White Sox may be looking at a choice between paying him $22 million for 2013 or paying the $4 million buyout and then bidding against others who might offer something like $36 million over three years. However, even if they had to pay the buyout, signing him to 3/36 would value the additional two years at just $9 million apiece, which is probably a gamble worth making given his production.

Verdict: Decline the option, attempt to re-sign to multi-year deal at a lower AAV.

Dan Haren, SP, Anaheim: $15.5 million team option or $3.5 million buyout

Before the season, this looked like a lock to be picked up, but Haren has struggled with back problems that have led to reduced velocity, and in turn, his worst season since his rookie season in 2002. However, an off-season of rest could solve all of his issues, and he’s had stretches of effectiveness this year, including his most recent few starts in September. However, Haren’s strikeout rate has been trending in the wrong direction for four years now, and even early in the season, he wasn’t the same frontline starter he was in Arizona.

At a net cost of $12 million, the question for the Angels will really come down to whether they can afford to keep both Haren and free agent starter Zack Greinke, or if they need to choose between them. If picking up Haren’s option stands in the way of retaining Greinke, then paying the buyout and hoping to bring him back at a lower salary seems like the best bet. If they don’t believe they can re-sign Greinke, however, then they can allocate a few million that would have gone to keeping him around to picking up Haren’s option, making sure they don’t lose two starters in one fell swoop this winter.

Verdict: Decline if they can re-sign Greinke, exercise if they can’t.

Hunter Pence, OF, San Francisco: Offer arbitration at expected $14 million or non-tender

When the Phillies traded Pence to San Francisco, the fact that he was not eligible for free agency until after the 2013 season was touted as a virtue. However, as a player who has already gone through arbitration three times (thanks to achieving Super-Two status earlier in his career), Pence’s salaries have escalated to the point where offering him arbitration might result in a paycheck that is too large for what he brings to the table.

After posting a career best .378 wOBA and +4.7 WAR last year, Pence has regressed to a career worst .324 wOBA and +1.8 WAR this season, as he’s just not getting balls to fall in for hits like he used to. His core statistics are all mostly unchanged, so there isn’t evidence of massive decline, but Pence overachieved in 2010, and his current salary reflects numbers that he probably can’t put up again. If Pence is more of a +2 to +3 win player headed into his age 30 season, $14 million may just be too rich for the Giants blood, especially if they also want to retain the more productive Angel Pagan. However, if they think that Pence could bounce back to something closer to his prior form, $14 million isn’t an outrageous sum for one year, and they would have the right to make him a qualifying offer after next season, which would give them draft pick compensation if he signed elsewhere as a free agent, which they would not get if they non-tender him this winter.

Verdict: Offer arbitration, hope he’s willing to settle for a smaller raise.

Kevin Youkilis, 3B, Chicago: $13 million team option with $1 million buyout

Since the White Sox took Youkilis from their red-stained brethren, his power and walks have come back and he’s performed as well as they could have hoped, though still not at the kinds of levels he’s achieved previously. Still, at +1.7 WAR in just 266 plate appearances in Chicago, his numbers would project out to a +4 win season in over 150 games played, which is easily worth the $12 million net cost of exercising his team option.

Of course, Youkilis has actually never managed to play 150 games in a regular season before, and has only averaged 115 per season over the last four years. So, while he’s been productive when healthy, the injuries are starting to take a toll on his body, and committing a significant chunk of the payroll to a guy who might best profile as a part-time player might not be the best use of resources for the White Sox. On the other hand, this is an absolutely miserable crop of free agent infielders, so he’d be fighting guys like Jeff Keppinger for the title of best available third base option if the Whtie Sox cut him loose. Given the relative lack of alternatives, he probably won’t have to settle for much less than what the option would guarantee him.

Verdict: Decline, but don’t expect a big savings if they try to re-sign him afterwards.

Tim Hudson, SP, Atlanta: $9 million team option or $1 million buyout

Hudson has been an excellent pitcher when healthy, and $8 million isn’t a lot of money for a guy who can still get opposing batters out, but Hudson’s future comes with a lot of red flags. He turned 37 in July, and right about that time, his velocity and strikeout rates both headed south in a hurry. After averaging 90 MPH with his fastball after coming off the disabled list in May, he bottomed out at 88 MPH in July, though he’s creeped back up to 89 in the last month or so. However, his 12% strikeout rate in the second half of the season is a problem, as even a groundball specialist like Hudson needs to miss bats every now and then in order to keep opposing runners from scoring.

Given his advancing age, his back surgery last winter, and his declining velocity and strikeout rates, committing $8 million to Hudson might not be in the Braves best interests. As a Georgia resident near the end of his career, Hudson may be more willing to take a paycut to stay close to home, but how low he’ll be willing to go while still being a rather effective pitcher remains to be seen. If the Braves put him on the market, he might be this winter’s Roy Oswalt.

Verdict: Decline, then try to re-sign to an incentive-laden contract.

As we head into the final month of the season, teams that are out of the pennant chase can utilize the expanded rosters to give their pitchers a bit of a breather after a long five months, backing off workloads and skipping starts or shutting pitchers down entirely if need be. However, for those still in the race, these games are more important than ever, and the pitching staff does not have the luxury of taking such breaks.

In some cases, however, recent trends in velocity might suggest that giving an important pitcher a couple of days off might be in everyone’s best interests, especially if these teams want to see their hurlers at full strength for an extra month of playoff baseball.

Chris Tillman – Baltimore Orioles

When Tillman was a top pitching prospect in the minors, he was routinely throwing in the mid-90s, and profiled as a true power pitcher. However, his velocity the last couple of years has hovered around 90 MPH, and his results have been nothing short of terrible. So, when Tillman arrived back in the Majors in July and promptly averaged 95 MPH with his fastball in his first start of the season — a game in which he gave up just two hits in 8 1/3 innings — it gave the Orioles some hope that the Tillman of old was starting to reemerge. Unfortunately, with each subsequent start, that velocity looks farther and farther away.

Average fastball speed, by start:

Date FBv
7/4/12 94.9
7/16/12 94.1
7/21/12 93.0
7/26/12 92.8
7/31/12 91.6
8/6/12 91.0
8/11/12 92.5
8/16/12 92.6
8/21/12 92.4
8/28/12 91.9
9/2/12 89.6

Not surprisingly, Tillman was removed from his start last Sunday with elbow soreness, as his fastball was off two miles-per-hour from his previous start and over five from his electrifying debut in July. An MRI showed inflammation in his elbow, and it’s not clear when he’ll make his next start, but this was clearly not just a one day issue, as his fastball has been eroding all summer. The Orioles have seen what Tillman can do with a 90 MPH fastball, and it isn’t pretty — getting him back to throwing 95 on a consistent basis, even if it requires a break during a playoff push, should be priority number one.

Jered Weaver – Los Angeles Angels

Like Tillman, Weaver has been diagnosed with inflammation and temporarily removed from the rotation, as his recent performances haven’t been very Weaver-esque. Weaver’s biggest asset throughout his career has been home run avoidance, and in the first three months of the season, he was keeping the ball in the yard as always, allowing just five home runs in 82 innings pitched. Since the calendar turned to July, however, he’s allowed 12 home runs in 79 innings, and his gopheritis has the Angels concerned. And rightfully so.

Since Weaver has made 25 starts, we won’t list the average velocity for each, but will instead break his season into thirds, with his final start before going to the doctor listed separately.

First eight games: 88.4 MPH
Middle eight games: 87.8 MPH
Last eight games: 87.5 MPH
Final game: 86.4 MPH

Weaver’s never been the hardest thrower around, but the last month or so, he’s started to shift into Mark Buehrle territory. Because he pitches up in the zone, throwing 87 instead of 89 can change a routine fly ball into a home run, and with the Angels trying to run down a wild card spot, they’ll need the version of Weaver that throws 89 again for the stretch run.

Phil Hughes – New York Yankees

Unlike Tillman and Weaver, Hughes has not reported any issues with his arm, and he is still a member of the Yankees rotation. However, his velocity trends should have the Yankees watching him closely, as his fastball has also been getting slower the last month or so. From April through July, Hughes averaged 92.4 MPH with his fastball, and was pretty consistent in that range, sitting between 92-93 in 14 of his first 20 starts.

The last seven have been a slightly different story, however. His highest average velocity game was against Detroit, when he sat at 92.2 for the day. He only got his average over 92 in two other starts, and his fastball registered just 91.1 in his last start against the Orioles. Six of his nine starts on the season with an average fastball velocity below 92 have come in the second half of the year, and his two lowest have both come in the last five weeks.

It’s more of a subtle decline than we see with either Tillman or Weaver, but it is there, and the recent trends aren’t terribly encouraging. Given that his 15% strikeout rate was also a season low in August, the Yankees should keep a close on Hughes’ fastball in his start on Friday night.

The White Sox hold a two-game lead over the Tigers in an up-for-grabs AL Central division. The rivals squared off this weekend in a crucial series, and tonight’s finale pits respective aces Chris Sale and Justin Verlander against one another. Sale has been a major reason the White Sox have held the division lead for this long, leading to speculation that he could dethrone Verlander in the Cy Young Award race.

While the 23-year-old lefty has turned in a fantastic season – especially considering it’s his first in the starting rotation – his award prospects should be tempered. His opponent is still king of the jungle.

The major difference between Sale’s and Verlander’s cases is playing time. Obviously, great pitchers help their team more and increase their own individual value by toeing the rubber more often. The near 40-inning gap between Sale and Verlander is integral to the discussion, because it truly has been all that separates the two starters. Aside from sheer playing time, they are having almost identical seasons.

Sale: 24 GP (23 GS), 157 IP, 25.0% K/PA, 6.3% BB/PA, 44% GB, 2.81 ERA, 3.23 SIERA
Verlander: 27 GS, 196.1 IP, 25.3% K/PA, 6.4% BB/PA, 40% GB, 2.80 ERA, 3.26 SIERA

Identical is being used in its literal sense here, as these pitchers are mere rounding errors away from each other in each of the relevant rate stats above. However, Verlander’s increased playing time has led to a WAR advantage of 1.5 wins. Verlander currently leads the junior circuit at 5.6 WAR, while Sale ranks third at 4.1. Though it’s easy to argue that Sale has pitched as effectively as Verlander on a start-by-start basis, Verlander has simply made more starts, and that goes a long way in accruing value.

The AL Cy Young Award landscape isn’t two pitchers deep, however, and since Sale ranks 3rd in WAR there is clearly someone sandwiched between him and Verlander. Felix Hernandez ranks between these two, and is actually just a hair behind Verlander with 5.5 WAR. Then again, Hernandez has thrown over half of his innings at Safeco Field, which has doubled as both the Mariners home park and a museum that reenacts the Deadball Era for interested fans this season. Even after accounting for the extreme disadvantage hitters face at Safeco, the playing time disparity bumps Hernandez over Sale.

Then there’s the matter of Sale’s teammate, Jake Peavy, having an equally good season. Through 26 starts and 181 innings, Peavy has 3.8 WAR to his name and similarly efficient and impressive peripherals. Of course, many voters still look at W-L record as a proxy for determining pitcher value and performance, and Sale’s 15-5 mark trumps Peavy’s 9-10 record. It also bests Verlander’s 12-7 and Felix’s 13-5. While Hernandez himself won the award with a 13-12 record in 2010, he was the clear choice that season. Right now, there are three reasonable choices and W-L record may loom large.

This season’s award race should prove interesting down the stretch, as Sale is the only pitcher in the race with a shot at 20 wins. However, he isn’t even likely to reach 200 innings, while his main opponents have 240 innings on their peripheries. Even if they did rack up that much playing time, voters could find reasons to not vote for them. Team performance could come into play for Hernandez, while a White Sox division title, plus a sexy wins total, could be enough to sway the vote in Sale’s favor.

This conflates will-win and should-win, which often happens in award discussions. Who will win is obviously up in the air right now, but there isn’t a clear-cut favorite. In terms of who should win, well, it shouldn’t be Sale. He has pitched very well this year but hasn’t pitched as often as Verlander or Felix, and the gap in WAR of over 1.5 wins is too much to ignore.

For most of the summer, columnists — myself included — have been writing about the likely fade of the Pittsburgh Pirates. And, for most of the summer, Andrew McCutchen made us all look silly, carrying the Pirates to unexpected victory after unexpected victory. As July came to a close, the Pirates were in line for a wild card, just three games behind the Reds in the NL Central, and Andrew McCutchen was the obvious choice for National League MVP.

However, August hasn’t been kind to either McCuthen or the Pirates. With their star center fielder slumping for the first time all season — he’s hit just .252/.350/.346 in the season’s first 30 days — Pittsburgh has gone just 11-16 and have fallen to third place in the NL Central, and are now on the outside looking in at the playoff picture. And, for the first time in a couple of months, it seems possible that someone other than the Pirates star center fielder might end up with the National League Most Valuable Player Award at the end of the season.

That opening has led to rising campaigns for other deserving candidates. Buster Posey’s tremendous performance with the Giants deserves recognition, David Wright’s rebound has made him one of the game’s best players again, and Ryan Braun might actually be having a better season this year than he did a year ago when he actually won the award. However, there’s one legitimate candidate who hasn’t garnered much attention as of yet, despite the fact that he may have the best case of all – Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina.

Molina is generally known for his defensive abilities, but while he might not be the star of the Cardinals offense like Posey is in San Francisco, don’t overlook the tremendous season he’s had at the plate this season. Here is a list of the seven best hitters in the National League this season, rated by wRC+, an index scale where 100 is average and which adjusts for ballpark factors, creating a more level playing field.

1. Ryan Braun, 168 wRC+
2. Andrew McCutchen, 159 wRC+
3. Buster Posey, 152 wRC+
4. Matt Holliday, 146 wRC+
5. Melky Cabrera, 146 wRC+
6. David Wright, 146 wRC+
7. Yadier Molina, 144 wRC+

Molina has essentially been the offensive equal of Wright, Cabrera, and Holliday this season, and Posey has only been slightly better at the plate. The only hitters in the National League who you can say have been drastically better than Molina are Braun and McCutchen and, of course, neither Braun nor McCutchen are catchers.

And, with all respect to Posey as a defender, he’s no Yadier Molina behind the plate. Evaluating the defensive contributions of a catcher is more difficult than any other position because of their interactions with the pitcher, but there are things that we can isolate about a catcher’s defense, specifically their ability to control the running game.

There are 14 NL catchers who have spent at least 500 innings behind the plate this year, Molina included. The 13 other catchers have caught 9,916 innings and have seen opposing base stealers attempt 990 steals, or essentially one every 10 innings. They have thrown 28% of those would-be base stealers, or stated another way, an average defensive NL catcher (not named Molina) has allowed a runner to take an extra base once every 14 innings, and created an out with his throwing arm once every 35 innings.

Molina blows them all away in both categories. To begin with, hardly anyone runs on Molina, as opposing baserunners have only attempted 52 steals against the Cardinals when he’s been behind the plate, and that’s still probably too often, as 24 of those 52 runners (46%) have been gunned down trying to take the base. Putting it on the same scale as the rest of the NL catchers, Molina only allows a success steal of second once every 33 innings, while he creates an out with his throwing arm once every 38 innings. In other words, Molina is gunning down runners almost as often as the league average while allowing successful steals less than half as often.

As for Posey, runners have tested his arm more than twice as often, attempting an additional 53 stolen bases against him despite the fact that he’s caught 118 fewer innings. Of those extra 53 stolen base attempts, Posey has only thrown out an additional four runners. The difference between the two in controlling the running game is 49 additional bases allowed by Posey with a gain of only four outs.

A successful stolen base allowed costs a team approximately 0.25 runs on average, while throwing out an advancing runner saves a team about 0.50 runs. Applying those average run values to the difference between Molina and Posey yields a 10 run difference, which more than cancels out the seven run lead Posey has with the bat this season.

Molina is the best defensive player at one of the most important positions on the field, and this year, he’s hitting at the same level as slugging clean-up hitters. While McCutchen has been the shining star of the first four months, the Cardinals August surge was due in large part to Molina — he’s hit .417/.463/.556 this month — and he is the primary reason the team is still a strong contender in the National League.

While the MVP award usually goes to the guy with the best offensive stats, the true MVPs are often the ones who hit well while providing excellent defense at premium positions. This year, no National League player has combined elite offense and defense like Molina. After years of simply being a defensive specialist, Molina is now playing like a true MVP talent.

It’s easy to see what Mike Trout, Miguel Cabrera, or Andrew McCutchen are doing to keep their team in the race this year. All three are having fantastic seasons, and are doing their part (and then some) to help keep their team in the playoff race.

However, baseball is the major sport where an individual player has the least impact on his team’s results, and no player can single-handedly carry his team to a playoff berth. To make it to October, a team needs production from up and down the roster, but not every contributor gets their fair share of recognition. Today, we shine a light on four key role players whose performances have been instrumental in keeping their team’s playoff hopes alive.

Coco Crisp, OF, Oakland

Crisp was one of the worst players in baseball for the first two months of the season. After going 0-4 on June 6th, his batting line stood at .158/.213/.175, as he had hit into twice as many double plays as he had extra base hits. However, over the last 10 weeks, Crisp has turned his season around in a big way, hitting .307/.370/.513 over his last 258 trips to the plate. To put that in perspective, that .883 OPS matches what Mark Trumbo has put up this season. Crisp isn’t thought of as a major power hitter, but he has 26 extra base hits in the last two and a half months, all while playing in a park that significantly depresses offense. Even with his terrible start and a DL stint in May, Crisp has already racked up +2.1 WAR, and is one of the underrated cogs that is keeping the A’s in contention. While there scoffs when a rebuilding Oakland team gave a 32-year-old a two year contract as a free agent, Crisp has proven to be worth far more than he signed for, and his off-season signing was one of the best moves any team made all winter.

Wade Miley, SP, Arizona

The Diamondbacks entered the season with one of the best trios of pitching prospects in baseball, as Archie Bradley (#19), Trevor Bauer (#21), and Tyler Skaggs (#25) all rated highly on Keith Law’s pre-season top 100 prospect list. However, while Bauer struggled with his control upon being called up, Skaggs just made his MLB debut this week, and Bradley has spent the year in A-ball, rookie southpaw Wade Miley has been the main reason Arizona is still hanging around in the NL West race. The 25-year-old is doing his best Ian Kennedy impersonation, pounding the strike zone with average velocity fastballs and succeeding in a way that shouldn’t logically work in Arizona’s ballpark. However, his command has been so precise that he’s been able to limit walks and keep the ball in the yard, the combination of which has led to an ERA that is 33 percent better than the league average. In fact, the only two NL pitchers with a better park adjusted ERA are Johnny Cueto and Jordan Zimmermann. Miley didn’t have much hype coming into the season, but he’s been the one with substance so far in 2012.

Angel Pagan, OF, San Francisco

While Melky Cabrera has gotten the headlines (for reasons both good and bad), the off-season pickup of Angel Pagan hasn’t received as much attention, but he’s been an extremely valuable piece for the Giants this year. After a down year with the Mets, the Giants gave him new life on the west coast, and Pagan has responded by putting up numbers right in line with his prior career norms. His jack-of-all-trades skillset is the one that is most often undervalued, as he doesn’t excel in any one area, but instead is a solid player across the board. Pagan draws walks, makes good contact, hits for some power, steals bases, and plays a good enough center field. This year, that package of skills has added up to +2.9 WAR, and Pagan’s presence has as a switch-hitter has given the Giants offense some life at the top of the order.

Chad Billingsley, SP, Los Angeles

Last year, it appeared that Billingsley might be pitching his way out of LA. At age 26, he had the worst year of his career right after signing a three year contract, and questions about whether he’d ever mature into a reliable rotation stalwart only seemed to get louder. Over the last few months, Billingsley has seemingly put those questions to rest, and is quietly having a pretty terrific season for the Dodgers. Command was his main issue a year ago, but Billingsley managed to get through 102 batters in July while only issuing one walk the whole month, a Halladay-esque performance from a guy who has never really resembled a strike-thrower. In fact, he’s issued 10 or fewer walks in every month but May, and the result has been a career low BB% of 6.8%, turning Billingsley into a guy who can work deep into ballgames. Clayton Kershaw is the undisputed ace of the Dodgers staff, but the mid-rotation guys behind him are one of the main reasons that the Dodgers are surprise contenders this year, and the rejuvenation of Chad Billingsley is one of the keys to the success of the boys in blue.

The Red Sox season hasn’t gone according to plan, and much of the blame has been placed on the shoulders of 62-year-old manager Bobby Valentine. Several members of the Red Sox are fed up with Valentine, and the situation reportedly came to a head in late July, when this group was highly critical of its manager and expressed those sentiments to ownership.

Regardless of whether or not these players informed ownership that they no longer wanted to play for Valentine, the new manager has undergone intense scrutiny this season. That tends to happen when a team with such high expectations is 59-62 through 121 games, 12.5 games out of first place in its division and five games out of the second wild card berth.

But much of this criticism is undeserved, as the Red Sox have experienced a litany of issues this year that have had far more of a material impact than the manager himself. While studies have shown the impact of a manager to be marginal at most over a 162-game season, it’s still a non-zero effect. However, injuries to key members of both the starting lineup and bullpen, strange and almost out-of-nowhere struggles from the starting rotation, and below average contributions from counted-on position players are why the Red Sox are on pace to miss the playoffs for the third straight season… not Valentine.

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