Archive for ESPN Insider 2012

In his early look at the postseason awards yesterday, Keith Law two Tigers among the top four on his AL MVP ballot, but neither of them were named Miguel Cabrera. While I agree with Keith that Jackson and Verlander are both having excellent seasons and are deserving of consideration, I do think there is a case to be made for Cabrera as a legitimate contender for American League MVP.

Let’s start with the obvious – no, he can’t match Mike Trout’s overall numbers right now. Trout has posted a higher batting average, higher on base percentage, and higher slugging percentage, he leads the league in stolen bases and stolen base efficiency, and he’s a fantastic defensive center fielder who adds a lot of value in the field. There isn’t a player in baseball who stack up next to Trout’s overall line, Cabrera included.

However, there are reasons to think that perhaps Cabrera has been somewhat more valuable this year than his overall batting line would suggest, and the opposite may very well be true of Trout. That reason? Performance in the clutch.

No, I’m not talking about RBIs, which I find just as useless as Keith does. Comparing the runs batted in totals between a leadoff hitter and a guy who bats third is silly, as we’d simply be rewarding Cabrera for where he hits in the line-up while punishing Trout for batting once a game with the bases empty, and hitting behind the weakest part of the Angels line-up the rest of the game. Whether Cabrera leads the league in RBIs or not should be irrelevant in the MVP discussion, or really in any discussion not involving a trivia contest.

But just because RBIs are a bad metric doesn’t mean that the idea that Cabrera has performed well in clutch situations is wrong. Using better metrics, we actually can confirm that he has, in fact, been a fantastic clutch hitter this year.

Using Leverage Index, we can quantify the relative impact any given plate appearance has on the outcome of a game, based on the score, inning, number of base runners, and how many outs there are at the time. At FanGraphs, we break every player’s plate appearances into three tiers, ranging from low leverage (game already decided) to high leverage (high chance of determining who wins and loses), and can evaluate how players have done in the “clutch” opportunities they’ve been given.

As it turns out, Cabrera has been a shining star in such situations this year.

Cabrera’s performance, by leverage:

Low Leverage: .332/.389/.613, .424 wOBA
Medium Leverage: .305/.365/.508, .369 wOBA
High Leverage: .417/.500/.833, .524 wOBA

In those 44 high leverage plate appearances, Cabrera has 15 hits, 11 of which have gone for extra bases. He’s also drawn seven walks, creating an even higher pressure situation for the pitcher, who now has to face Prince Fielder without first base being open. Cabrera’s .526 wOBA in high leverage situations easily paces the American League. The fact that Alejandro de Aza and Alex Rios — neither exactly known as fearsome clutch hitters — are also in the top five should tell you something about the year-to-year variability of clutch performance, but we’re not trying to predict whether Cabrera can keep hitting like this in high pressure situations, we’re just noting that he has so far this year.

On the other end of the spectrum, the best hitter in low leverage situations in the American League? None other than Mike Trout. In fact, Trout’s leverage splits are basically a mirror opposite of Cabrera’s.

Trout’s performance, by leverage:

Low Leverage: .376/.459/.700, .499 wOBA
Medium Leverage: .317/.369/.511, .394 wOBA
High Leverage: .276/.289/.517, .345 wOBA

Trout has been an absolute monster when the game is already determined one way or another, and just a little bit better than league average when the game is on the line. Now, you should not take these numbers to mean that Trout folds under pressure or that he lacks some personality trait that allows him to answer the call when necessary, as we’re just dealing with 38 plate appearances, and these splits will even out over a larger sample of data. I am not arguing that Cabrera has a clutch gene that Trout does not.

However, that’s not the question the MVP Award is asking. It is a retrospective question, asking who did more to help their team win in the past. And, while it is not a predictive measure that tells us anything about what will happen in the future, the reality is that Cabrera has been the best high leverage hitter in the American League this year, while Trout has produced a great majority of his offense in situations where the outcome was already fairly clear.

Clutch performance shouldn’t be the only factor in MVP voting, and we shouldn’t pretend that Trout’s performance in low and medium leverage situations hold no value. That Trout has trounced Cabrera in larger samples needs to be reflected in the voting, as does Trout’s elite base running and defense.

However, just looking at their raw batting lines overlooks the fact that Cabrera has an additional 83 plate appearances overall, and that Cabrera has done more with the important opportunities he’s been given. That difference in quantity of playing time and extreme greatness in the clutch should be enough to put Cabrera in the MVP conversation. When you adjust for the timing of when they’ve performed at their best, the gap shrinks enough that a vote for Cabrera isn’t as crazy as it might sound otherwise. Trout’s still the best candidate, but Cabrera’s as worthy as any other player on the ballot for second, and if he continues to scorch the ball for the last six weeks of the season, he might even end up as a legitimate selection for the top spot.

Last year, Eric Hosmer, Dustin Ackely, and Matt Moore put themselves on the map in their Major League debuts. Hosmer was an above average hitter at age 21, showing the special offensive skills that created expectations that he would anchor the Royals line-up for years to come. Ackley proved he could handle second base and showed more power than expected, giving the Mariners a legitimate Major League hitter that they badly needed. Moore didn’t show up until September, but in five appearances between the regular season and the playoffs, he looked like a flame-throwing ace who might just be the guy to put Tampa Bay over the top. Instead of building off their remarkable debuts, however, all three have taken significant steps backwards.

What can we learn from their struggles in 2012? To answer this question, I used the filters available on the FanGraphs Leaderboards to identify players since 1992 who had similar seasons at a similar point in their career, allowing us to see whether other players were able to bounce back, or whether this kind of failure was the sign of a long term problem. Rather than simply looking at the results, I focused the filters on the metrics that most align with a player’s development – walk rate, strikeout rate, power, and age.

Eric Hosmer, 1B, Kansas City

Comprable Seasons: Jimmy Rollins (2002), Scott Spiezio (1997), Stephen Drew (2007), Pablo Sandoval (2010), Lastings Milledge (2008)

Hosmer’s shown very good contact skills with a decent approach at the plate but minimal power, which is not usually the kind of skills you find in a young first baseman. In fact, the filter returns more middle infielders than anything else, which says something about how poorly Hosmer has hit this year. Sandoval is the name on the list the Royals have to be clinging to, as he put a poor second season behind him and has developed into one of the better hitting third baseman in the game, but unfortunately for Kansas City, he looks more like the exception than the rule.

Rollins and Drew eventually developed into good hitters compared to other shortstops, but they never hit like you’d want from a franchise first baseman. Spiezio had the most similar season from a statistical perspective, and while he improved to a degree, he spent his career as more of a role player than any kind of impact bat. Milledge was a highly touted prospect who never developed into what he was projected to be, and in turn was out of baseball by age 26. Besides Sandoval, the list of comparable players is mostly made up of guys who were never more than league average hitters. Given Hosmer’s position and expectations, he’ll have to turn into more than that to live up to the hype.

Dustin Ackley, 2B, Seattle

Comparable Seasons: Royce Clayton (1994), Chad Allen (1999), Daric Barton (2008), Ben Davis (2001)

If you thought things were grim based on Hosmer’s comps, the list of guys who had similar years to Ackley are even scarier. Clayton stuck around the league for a long time because he was a good defensive shortstop, but he never turned into much of a hitter. Allen played in parts of seven seasons and was either replacement level or worse in six of them. Barton had one monster season two years later, but then saw his offense take a nosedive and is now toiling in Triple-A. Davis, like Ackley, had been selected #2 overall his in his draft, but failed to ever turn into more than a part-time reserve catcher.

There are no Sandoval’s on this list, mostly because the combination of high strikeouts and low power is simply not an effective way to produce offense. To survive as a low power hitter in the big leagues, you have to get on base a lot, and that requires good contact skills. Ackley doesn’t have the physique to become a slugger, so he’s simply going to have to fix his strikeout problems if he’s ever going to turn into a quality big league hitter.

Matt Moore, SP, Tampa Bay:

Comparable Seasons: Tony Armas Jr (2001), Chad Billingsley (2009), Shawn Estes (1998), Gio Gonzalez (2010), Matt Cain (2006)

Finally, we get some good news. Moore’s list is essentially a who’s who of young pitchers with good stuff who just needed some refinement, with several examples of pitchers who took the necessary steps forward to become quality hurlers. Cain is probably the best possible outcome, as he’s developed into a durable workhorse who now knows how to pound the strike zone, but I’m sure the Rays would be fine if Moore followed in Gio Gonzalez’s steps as well. Billingsley is more of a middle of the road career path, as he’s been inconsistent in Los Angeles, and Estes and Armas are examples of what can go wrong, but there’s plenty of success stories on the list of pitchers who had a similar down year after being loaded with expectations.

Pitchers tend to be ever-evolving, and one minor change can set off a major directional change in their careers. For Moore, even a small improvement in his command could have a large chain reaction on his results, allowing him to pitch ahead in the count more often and forcing hitters to chase a greater amount of pitches out of the strike zone. While Hosmer’s going to have to figure out how to add some power to his game and Ackley needs to figure out how to stop striking out, Moore simply needs to figure out how to attack the zone more regularly. Given what history shows us about these three necessary improvements, Moore looks like the one to bet on for the big rebound.

As part of the new era of pitching, baseball has ushered in a wave of young fireballers who dominate through velocity. Aroldis Chapman, Stephen Strasburg, and even unheralded arms like Kansas City’s Kelvin Herrera routinely hit 100 MPH with their fastballs, and baseball has never been so populated with as many hard throwers as there are in the game today.

However, on the other end of the spectrum, there is simultaneously a group of pitchers making a splash in the big leagues with stuff that would fit in better at your local high school. Tommy Milone (Oakland), Michael Fiers (Milwaukee), Carlos Villanueva (Toronto), and Scott Diamond (Minnesota) are all establishing themselves as big league starters, and rewarding their organizations for taking a shot on a guy without a big fastball. Milone’s success after being just the extra guy added into the Gio Gonzalez trade is one of the main reasons why the A’s are surprise contenders, while Diamond, Fiers, and Villanueva have all been pleasant surprises on pitching staffs that found themselves desperate for reliable pitching mid-season.

As a group, their fastballs have averaged just 88.5 mph this year, with Diamond being the hardest thrower with an average velocity of 89.5 mph on his fastball. However, they’re all very different pitchers, and succeeding in very different ways. Diamond is a sinkerball specialist who generates a ton of ground balls, while Fiers is one of the most extreme fly ball pitchers in baseball. Milone is a control specialist who never walks anyone, while Villanueva has the 11th highest walk rate of any pitcher in baseball with at least 60 innings pitched this year. Despite the stereotype of every low velocity starter being cut from the same mold, these four are all pretty different.

Of these four low velocity hurlers, is there one whose skillset portends success more than the others? Let’s take a look at some historical comparisons for both.

Scott Diamond – 3.4% BB%, 13.5% K%, 56.5% GB%

Diamond’s the hardest of the group to find comps for, as this is a pretty rare combination of skills for a big league starter. Since 2002, only four other pitchers have thrown 100 innings in a season with a walk rate below 5%, a strikeout rate between 10-15%, and a ground ball rate over 50% – Greg Maddux, Carl Pavano, Joel Pineiro, and Chris Sampson. While any comparison to Maddux seems flattering, remember that the four years he fit into this category were all at the end of his career, so we aren’t talking about the Cy Young version of Maddux here. While he was still useful at this stage of his career, Pavano, Sampson, and Pineiro were more of a mixed bag, mixing in some above average years with some mediocre ones. Overall, this group combined to produce about league average results, which is still a nice thing to have, but well below the level that Diamond is achieving at the moment.

Michael Fiers – 5.5% BB%, 25.0% K%, 31.1% GB%

For Fiers, the comparisons are a bit easier and a bit more friendly, as there are a decent number of good pitchers who have succeeded by living up in the strike zone and trading extra fly balls for increased strikeout rates. Jered Weaver is the best version of this skillset (and also doesn’t throw particularly hard), but Colby Lewis, Scott Baker, and Ted Lilly have also posted similar seasons to what Fiers is doing right now. Those three have all fallen short of what Weaver has accomplished due to one common problem, though – the home run ball. As extreme fly ball guys, they’re more prone to giving up the long ball, and their issues with the home run caused them to settle in as more good pitchers than great ones. Weaver shows the potential this type of arm can have if he figures out how to keep the ball in the park, though the fact that he’s the only example also shows how tall of a task that really is. Still, Fiers is controlling the strike zone well enough to have success even if he does start giving up home runs. The stuff might not project as a quality starter, but like Baker and Lewis before him, Fiers may very well defy expectations.

Tommy Milone – 4.9% BB%, 17.7% K%, 39.1% GB%

Milone’s skillset is the most common of the four, as 30 different pitchers in the last 10 years have put up similar statistical seasons based on their walk rates, strikeout rates, and ground ball rates. As with any group this size, results are going to run the gambit, so you see the likes of Ben Sheets or Cliff Lee on the same list as Andy Sonnanstine and Brett Tomko. However, the significant majority belonged to pitchers who had good seasons, as only nine of the 30 pitchers on the list posted an above average ERA in the year that their profile matched up with Milone’s. Overall, the group posted an ERA that was 10 percent better than the league average, and the most representative sample was Chris Capuano, who is also a soft-tossing left-hander who gets some strikeouts despite pedestrian stuff. If Milone can have Capuano’s career minus the two Tommy John surgeries, I think the A’s will be quite happy they stole him away in the Gio Gonzalez trade.

Carlos Villanueva – 10.9% BB%, 25.0% K%, 43.5% GB%

Villanueva’s the one member of the group who isn’t arriving in the big leagues for the first time, as he made his big league debut with the Brewers in 2006. He’s also the guy whose statistical profile don’t align with his stuff at all. The list of pitchers with comparable numbers in a single season include A.J. Burnett, Yovani Gallardo, Scott Kazmir, and Jorge de la Rosa, each of whom was a live arm with serious command problems. In fact, all of the ten comparable pitchers in terms of results had an average fastball velocity of 90 mph or higher in that season, so Villanueva is essentially breaking new ground here. Villanueva’s not going to be able to harness his raw stuff in the same way that Clayton Kershaw did, and he’s got a history of walking guys in the big leagues, so we probably shouldn’t expect a big leap forward. Still, even with his current skillset, Villanueva can be a useful starting pitcher, as he mixes in his off-speed pitches frequently and racks up enough strikeouts to offset the walks.

This has already been an active week leading up to next Tuesday’s trade deadline, with names like Hanley Ramirez, Ichiro Suzuki, Zack Greinke, and Ryan Dempster hogging the headlines. However, while the big names get all of the attention, there are going to be some under the radar moves made in the next four days that could provide significant upgrades for teams down the stretch. Here, we’ll take a look at four players who might not have the name value of the guys dominating the rumor mill, but could be impact pick-ups for teams in contention.

Yunel Escobar, SS, Toronto

Escobar hasn’t hit well for the Blue Jays this year, slumping to just a .250/.299/.342 line that adds up to just a .283 wOBA, but he could still be a Major upgrade for several teams in the race. His career history suggests that he’s got more offense in his bat than he’s shown the last few months, as his career line of .285/.357/.393 is actually quite good for a shortstop, and UZR has rated him as an above average defender at the position every year since 2008. A strong finish to the year is certainly possible, but even without a huge rebound, Escobar could still represent a vast improvement for both Bay Area teams. The Giants are currently leaning on Brandon Crawford and his .269 wOBA while the A’s have had to suffer through Cliff Pennington’s .245 mark.

ZIPS projects that Escobar will be worth +1.2 WAR over the remainder of the 2012 season, a full win better than the +0.2 WAR projection for Crawford and a half win improvement over what the system sees from Pennington down the stretch. He’s not just a rental, either, as he’s under contract for $5 million in 2013 and then any team acquiring him would hold team options for both 2014 and 2015 at that same $5 million salary, so Escobar could provide both a short term boost and an answer for the next several seasons at a position that isn’t easy to fill. While his reputation in Atlanta wasn’t the best, there simply aren’t many shortstop options available, and if Escobar hits like he has previously, he could be the bargain of the trade deadline.

Paul Maholm, SP, Chicago

While all the talk has centered around the Cubs dealing Ryan Dempster and/or Matt Garza, Maholm may actually be the value buy out of the Cubs starters. He doesn’t rack up strikeouts like his rotation mates (just 6.02 K/9), but his combination of strikes (2.38 BB/9) and groundballs (50.0% GB%) make him a very solid innings eater. He could be a perfect fit for a team like the White Sox that just need a solid league average pitcher at the back of their rotation to stabilize things for the final two months of the season.

Maholm isn’t a guy that you want to give the ball to in Game 1 of a playoff series, but he’s more than capable of giving a team six quality innings every fifth day, and shouldn’t require the same kind of commitment in terms of prospects as the more high profile arms on the market. That makes him a great fit for the White Sox, who don’t have many good prospects to trade to begin with, and the club option for 2013 at $6.5 million would give them insurance in case they don’t have confidence in John Danks returning to full health. Maholm would be a legitimate improvement over Phil Humber and give Chicago a better shot at keeping pace with Detroit, and Kenny Williams may be better off with Maholm than trying to outbid everyone else for Zack Greinke.

Oliver Perez, relief pitcher, Seattle

Yes, that Oliver Perez. The guy who was last seen walking 42 batters in 46 innings with the Mets has resurfaced as a left-handed reliever in Seattle, and looks nothing like the guy who earned the scorn of everyone in Queens. His fastball has averaged 93.8 MPH this year, up a staggering 5.8 MPH from his last season in New York. The average velocity has also brought a new found ability to throw strikes, as 72 percent of the pitches he’s thrown for the Mariners have been strikes — in 2010, that number was just 56 percent.

His track record means that buyers are going to be wary of paying too high a price to acquire Perez’s services, but it’s hard to argue that he’s the same guy he was earlier in his career. The command might not stick around, but in throwing 94 out of the bullpen from the left side, Perez has a chance to be a real weapon in relief for any contender, and the Rangers and Cardinals both showed how important bullpen depth can be in October. A team like the Braves — who don’t know what to expect from Jonny Venters — would be a good fit, though in reality, every team in the playoff race should be evaluating Perez before next Tuesday.

Chris Denorfia, Outfielder, San Diego

While the Padres disappointed potential suitors for Carlos Quentin when they re-signed him earlier in the week, there’s another outfielder in San Diego who could provide real value as a strong role player and should come at a much lower cost. The highly underrated Chris Denorfia is quietly having a very strong season, hitting .294/.356/.431 while splitting time between all three outfield positions. Like most Padres hitters, his offensive line is being dragged down by the offensive black hole known as Petco Park, as he’s hitting a spectacular .330/.375/.491 on the road.

He’s not going to hit that well in a new location, but Denorfia has over 1,100 big league plate appearances and a .331 wOBA that is 10 percent above league average, so it’s about time that he got a chance to show what he can do with increased playing time. At 31, he’s not young enough to be a long term solution, but he’s probably the best fourth outfielder in the game today, and could start for a handful of contenders with question marks in the outfield. Pittsburgh might be an ideal landing spot for Denorfia, as he wouldn’t cost them a vital part of their farm system and would give them depth behind newly recalled prospect Starling Marte, allowing them to have a necessary safety net who is already used to serving as a part-time player.

Yesterday, Dan Szymborski gave you five National League trades that should go down, hoarding intriguing talents like Justin Upton and Cole Hamels in the process. But, just because he’s already kept those two in the NL doesn’t mean that the AL contenders should stand pat at the deadline — there are five moves in the AL that need to happen too.

Trade No. 1: Miami Marlins third baseman Hanley Ramirez, starting pitcher Anibal Sanchez, and second baseman Omar Infante to the Detroit Tigers for third baseman Nick Castellanos, starting pitcher Jacob Turner, and outfielder Delmon Young.

The Tigers can’t afford to let prime seasons from Justin Verlander, Miguel Cabrera, and Prince Fielder go to waste, and have already bet big on 2012, so they shouldn’t stop short now. The surrounding cast around The Big Three needs serious improvement, and the Marlins could offer significant help at several positions in one fell swoop.

Ramirez hasn’t settled in well at third base and could probably use a change of scenery at this point, and the Tigers might be a good place for him to start over. Of course, with Miguel Cabrera at third, he’d have to undergo another positional switch, but the Tigers could get creative in an effort to get him on board – offer him a chance to move back to shortstop in 2013 if he’s willing to move to the outfield for the rest of this season. Ramirez was outspoken about wanting to remain at shortstop, and the organization could decline Jhonny Peralta’s team option for next season in order to give Ramirez another shot at his preferred position. In order to get that shot, he’d just have to acquiesce to an outfield experiment that may be the best use of his physical skills anyway.

A fast runner with mediocre instincts, he’s long been projected by scouts as an outfielder, and the Tigers could certainly use a replacement for the inept Delmon Young (who the Marlins are forced to take back simply so Jim Leyland wouldn’t play him anymore). Ramirez would give the team another legitimate offensive weapon, and if his transition to the outfield went quickly — the team could start him off at DH while he learns the position in warm-ups — he has the physical skills to also be a vast improvement with the glove as well.

Sanchez is an underrated hurler who would fit in well behind Verlander, but is headed for a big payday in free agency, and might be too pricey for the Marlins this off-season. Including him in the deal in order to get both Castellanos and Turner is better than letting him walk for draft picks over the winter.

Infante might look like the throw-in, but given the team’s awful production from second base (.198/.277/.274) this season, just getting a league average player is a dramatic upgrade. The price for these two upgrades may seem steep, but if the deal breathes new life into Ramirez, he could the difference between the team sitting at home or throwing a parade in October. For the Marlins, they would finally have a real third baseman of the future, an interesting young pitcher, and a chance to move on from the Hanley Ramirez era.

Trade No 2: Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Zack Greinke to the Texas Rangers for outfielder Leonys Martin, starting pitcher Neil Ramirez, and second baseman Rougned Odor.

The Rangers rotation consists of many quality pitchers, but there’s no one that you could point to as the guy you want to give the ball to in Game One of a playoff series. The Rangers might be World Series favorites even without Greinke, but adding a true frontline starter would give them their best chance to avoid being the Buffalo Bills of Major League Baseball.

Greinke has experience both in the AL and in hitter friendly ballparks, and he’s had success at avoiding home runs throughout his career, a key attribute for pitching well in Texas. His 2.80 xFIP is second in the Majors (behind only Stephen Strasburg), and with the Rangers quality defense behind him, he could very well take a step forward even while switching to a tougher environment. In a market full of arms that just duplicate what Texas already has, Greinke is one of the true difference makers.

Given the changes in the CBA that eliminate draft pick compensation for midseason acquisitions, giving up three quality prospects for a rental might seem like a steep price, but the Rangers are better off paying in quantity rather than quality. This deal would allow them to keep coveted shortstop Jurickson Profar and third baseman Mike Olt, and while they may regret moving Odor in a few years, they have the depth to live with the losses of Martin and Ramirez in the short term.

For the Brewers, they get a guy who should be able to take over in center field right away, replacing the platoon of Carlos Gomez and Nyjer Morgan that has been nothing short of a disaster in 2012. Ramirez is an inconsistent arm who recently got demoted from Triple-A back to Double-A, but has shown signs of life in four starts since the move and still has premium stuff. And Odor may be the real prize of the group, though the Brewers would have to wait a few years for the 18-year-old to live up to reach Milwaukee. Still, this package would be too much for the Brewers to turn down, and the Rangers can afford to part with three young players in order to try and bring home a ring.

Trade No 3: Chicago Cubs trade starting pitcher Ryan Dempster for shortstop/second baseman Jean Segura.

While the Dodgers have been heavily connected to Dempster, it’s the other Los Angeles franchise who should swoop in and add him to their rotation. With Dan Haren and Ervin Santana struggling, the Angels are in need of another reliable starter, and Dempster is the best fit for them on the market. He’d slide in perfectly as another strike thrower who misses bats, and he should be able to take advantage of Anaheim’s friendliness towards right-handed pitchers.

Segura is a middle infield prospect who was aced out of a future in Anaheim when the team gave contract extensions to both Erick Aybar and Howie Kendrick, so his role in the organization is now trade chip. He got off to a slow start in Double-A but has heated up as of late, and would offer the Cubs a potential Starlin Castro replacement or a guy who could offer a bit more at the plate than Darwin Barney.

Trade No 4: Seattle Mariners trade starting pitcher Kevin Millwood and catcher Miguel Olivo to the Chicago White Sox for catcher Tyler Flowers.

The White Sox don’t have the prospects to make a huge splash at the deadline, but that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t try to improve the roster in order to hold off the Tigers and Indians. Picking up veterans like Millwood and Olivo might not grab headlines, but could be enough to keep them in the race.

Millwood’s quietly pitching well for the Mariners, posting his usual 2:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio with some ground balls, and before you point out that Safeco Field is a pitcher’s haven, he was effective down the stretch for Colorado last year as well. With John Danks and Gavin Floyd on the DL, the team could use an innings sponge who can keep the team in games, and that’s Millwood’s specialty at this point in his career.

Olivo would be making a return visit to Chicago, but instead of flopping as the catcher of the future, he could serve as the perfect platoon caddy for A.J. Pierzynski. Pierzynski is hitting okay against lefties in 67 trips to the plate this year, but he’s historically got a large platoon split and the team could use an alternate option against southpaws in the second half. However, Olivo wouldn’t have to play against all LHPs to be worth acquiring — he also has a very strong throwing arm, another big weakness for the White Sox starting catcher. Olivo could be used situationally against teams who can run, or late in games to prevent a stolen base, and would represent an upgrade in a limited role over Flowers, who has been atrocious for the White Sox.

The Mariners just need offense, and Flowers has flashed some power in the minors. He might not be any kind of savior, but as a 26-year-old, he’s more in line with the type of player that Seattle needs to be looking at in the second half than either Millwood or Olivo.

Trade No 5: Philadelphia Phillies trade outfielder Juan Pierre to the New York Yankees for relief pitcher Kevin Whelan.

With Brett Gardner’s injury problems lingering, the Yankees could use some depth in left field, and what better way to replace Gardner than with another player with similar physical skills. Pierre is nowhere near Gardner as a defender, but he’s a high-contact speed guy who can be effective in a strict platoon — he’s hitting .345/.385/.427 against RHPs and .171/.190/.171 against LHPs. Thankfully, with Andruw Jones around, a strict platoon would be easy to pull off, allowing Raul Ibanez to move back to designated hitter.

Pierre would also give the team a pinch-running option on days he doesn’t start, and gives Joe Girardi a bit more flexibility on the bench. As a useful role player, he’s worth giving up on the hopes that Whelan ever figures out where the strike zone is, and let the Phillies bet on his all walks-and-strikeouts approach to pitching.

The Red Sox are a disappointing 43-42 this season, in fourth place by a half-game over the Blue Jays, and 8.5 games out of first place in the AL East. However, despite their pitching struggles and numerous injuries, especially in the outfield, the Red Sox are merely 2.5 games behind the Orioles for the second wild card spot. The playoffs are within reach, and as Jacoby Ellsbury gets back into the swing of things and Carl Crawford and Dustin Pedroia return from the disabled list, the Sox could make a serious postseason push. Though it would certainly help if Adrian Gonzalez was hitting at his normal level.

Through 85 games and 370 plate appearances, Gonzalez is hitting a measly .284/.330/.417. While his .322 wOBA meets the league average, he is a far greater hitter. He has a career .371 wOBA and a .395 mark over the last three seasons. Projection systems, which are based heavily on historical data, see him rebounding nicely down the stretch. But there is no guarantee that he completely rebounds and the possibility still exists that he’ll finish the year with a drastically lower wOBA. Whether he finishes the season hovering around a .320 wOBA, or closer to the .340 that ZIPS projects, his current and potential dropoffs are worthy of investigation.

Throughout history, there are plenty of examples of players whose wOBA dropped substantially as compared to their prior three-year averages. Among players who managed 1,000+ plate appearances over four consecutive years, and who batted at least 400 times in the fourth season – to avoid drop-offs due to injuries or reduced playing time – there were 187 such examples of players whose wOBA dropped by 70+ points.

However, a selection bias exists in the data in that players with extremely high wOBAs over a three-year span are more likely to experience larger drop-offs: Roger Hornsby’s .544 wOBA average from 1923-25, and his subsequent .396 mark in 1926 isn’t really a comp for Gonzalez. To get around that issue I restricted the data to players whose three-year wOBA average fell in the .370-.420 range. That dropped the list to 81 players who lost 70+ points of wOBA in that fourth season.

Most of the recent examples are players whose careers were essentially over after that fourth season. Sammy Sosa had a .387 wOBA from 2002-04, and a .292 wOBA in 2005. Roberto Alomar had a .404 wOBA from 1999-2001 and a .316 wOBA in 2002. Pat Burrell had a .382 wOBA from 2006-08 and a .304 mark in 2009. Jim Edmonds, like Gonzalez, had a .395 wOBA from 2004-06, but well to .316 in 2007.

The comparable players might not bode well for Gonzalez, but as Adam Dunn is showing us, sometimes players simply have fluky poor seasons. Among the group whose three-year average fell between .370 and .420, Dunn actually had the second-largest drop-off of all time, with a .385 average from 2008-10 and a .266 wOBA last season. Though his wOBA fell by 119 points, he now has a .370 wOBA and has rebounded nicely.

That being said, why exactly has Gonzalez struggled? According to an excellent post from ESPN’s Sweetspot affiliate Fire Brand of the American League, Gonzalez’s struggles revolve around plate discipline, an assertion backed up by the data. FanGraphs has Gonzalez swinging at 52.6% of his pitches seen, compared to his career 48.7% rate. He hasn’t topped 50% in this category since before he was a regular starter. His rate of swings out of the zone is up to a career-high 37.1%, and his career rate is just 29.1%. He has swung at 75.1% of pitches thrown his way in the zone, up from 69.9% last, but is making less contact on those pitches. And while his overall contact is slightly up, it has come more from pitches out of the zone, where worse contact is often induced by pitchers.

And while he has produced more effectively over the last two weeks – a .393/.404/.500 slash line and a .392 wOBA – some of his plate discipline stats are still askew. That productivity is accompanied by a 41.5% rate of out-of-zone swings, which is disconcerting since pitchers have only thrown 38.2% of pitches in the zone throughout this span.

He has also swung at 57.1% of all pitches, and while his approach has yielded solid results recently, there doesn’t seem to be much in the way of a discernible change. Gonzalez started out slowly and has experienced some recent success despite approaching plate appearances in the same odd way. Perhaps he is being pitched differently and is yet to make adjustments.

The previously linked Fire Brand article found that pitchers are more inclined to challenge Gonzalez inside this year, instead of constantly staying low and away. Since he hasn’t made them pay for it, there hasn’t been any reason to limit their plate coverage. Gonzalez is likely too good to finish the season with merely league average production, but there is certainly precedent for substantial drop-offs in productivity, and his can be traced to a specific root cause. The Red Sox playoff hopes don’t entirely hinge on his production picking up, but given the uncertainties caused by numerous injuries to everyday players, having Gonzalez as anything but a sure thing clearly hurts.

Jim Bowden laid out his list of the 10 players most likely to be on the move over the final four weeks leading up to the trade deadline, and in several of those cases, there’s one team that could use their services more than anyone else. Without further ado, here are the three best fits to fill a contender’s needs for the stretch run.

Shane Victorino to the Cincinnati Reds.

That the Reds are in first place right now is something of a minor miracle, given the ridiculously awful performance they’ve gotten from their leadoff hitters this season. Table setters for the Reds this year have combined fora .194/.234/.304 batting line – easily the worst in the majors – and are the primary reason that Joey Votto has only 47 RBI despite being baseball’s best hitter this season. The Reds badly need a guy who can get on base at an average rate at least, and it would help if that guy could play center field, giving them a better option than either Drew Stubbs or Chris Heisey.

Enter Shane Victorino. While the Phillies 5’9 Hawaiian sparkplug isn’t having the same kind of impact he did last year (hitting .254/.322/.386), he’s still been a quality all around performer, producing +1.6 WAR to date. Most of his regression from last year has come through hitting fewer extra base hits, but the Reds don’t need Victorino to match 2011’s .491 slugging percentage, and would be happy to just have his career .342 on base percentage at the top of their line-up instead of the out machines they’ve been playing this season.

Victorino is a perfect complement to the guys already on Cincinnati’s roster as well, as he’s a switch hitter who is better from the left side of the plate, helping to balance out the all-RHB options the Reds have beyond everyday right fielder Jay Bruce. Stubbs could play against all lefties in a platoon and play left field against right-handers on days when the Reds want to maximize outfield defense, giving them more options defensively as well as a guy who could ignite their line-up and allow Votto to start driving runners in with all of his doubles.

Adding Victorino and making Stubbs as a fantastic fourth outfielder could add between one and two wins for the Reds over the rest of the season, and given how competitive the NL Central is, that could easily be the difference between a division title and sitting at home in October.

Francisco Liriano to the Indians.

With Ubaldo Jimenez and Justin Masterson rounding into form, the Indians rotation is starting to look like a strength of the team once again. However, both of those hurlers are right-handed, as are all three other members of the Indians rotation. In fact, 10 of the 12 pitchers currently on Cleveland’s roster are right-handed, and that presents a significant match-up problem against the AL Central leading Chicago White Sox.

With left-handed thumpers like Adam Dunn and A.J. Pierzynski, the White Sox have several players with large platoon splits, and the team’s 85 wRC+ against LHPs ranks just 22nd in baseball. However, the Indians don’t currently have any way to exploit those weaknesses against Chicago, and end up throwing an army of right-handed pitchers at an offense that is better against RHPs (98 wRC+) than they have been against LHPs. Beyond just the White Sox, the Indians would benefit from having a having quality left-handed starter, and Liriano’s inconsistent history and impending free agency should drive his price down to the point where the Indians could afford him without surrendering a premium return.

Liriano provides as much upside as any starter on the market, and given the Indians position, they need to take a gamble rather than making a safer, smaller move that won’t have as much impact. Replacing McAlister or Tomlin with Liriano should net them an extra win, and could also give them a match-up weapon they lack at the moment.

Marco Scutaro to the Dodgers.

Among the 23 shortstops in MLB who have qualified for the batting title, Dee Gordon ranks 21st in offense (61 wRC+) and 22nd in fielding (-9.4 UZR), all of which serve to make him baseball’s worst performing shortstop (-0.9 WAR) to date. Of all qualified players at any position, only Brennan Boesch (-1.5 WAR) has been worse. Gordon’s speed and athleticism might eventually make him a good Major League player, but he’s nowhere close to that now, and he has no business playing on a team with playoff aspirations.

Unfortunately for the Dodgers, there aren’t a lot of shortstops available, but Scutaro represents one potential upgrade who could make a major difference even while not being an amazing player himself. Scutaro’s decent-but-unspectacular production (90 wRC+, 0.1 UZR) isn’t going to command a huge return in trade, but because of the complete void he’d be filling for LA, acquiring Scutaro would be more impactful than if the proposed Carlos Lee deal had gone through. The Dodgers won a substantial amount of games in the first two months of the season with Matt Kemp surrounded by a bunch of steady performers, and what they need now is yet another steady performer to plug their hole at shortstop.

Scutaro won’t be on anyone’s list of guys who will put you over the top, but in terms of magnitude of difference for acquiring team, swapping him in for Gordon might be a larger upgrade than any other team makes all month.

When evaluating a player, it’s generally a good idea to look at larger sample sizes so that short term swings in performance don’t mislead you into an incorrect conclusion. However, there are some cases where looking at a player’s line from the entire season will cause you to miss some adjustments and improvements that players have made in season. In fact, just focusing on the overall performance in 2012 might cause you to come to the wrong conclusion about several pitchers who have recently gotten back on the right track after some very tough starts to the year. So, while you shouldn’t completely ignore the fact that they struggled out of the gate, here are some pitchers whose turnarounds might fly under the radar if you only focus on full season numbers.

Ubaldo Jimenez, Cleveland Indians

For the first two months of the season, Ubaldo Jimenez appeared broken. He had more walks than strikeouts in both April and May, pacing the Majors by issuing 28 free passes in the second month of the year. His velocity was down, his command was off, and the former groundball machine had turned into a fly ball pitcher who couldn’t throw strikes. However, once the calendar flipped to June, Jimenez began to right the ship.

During the last month, Jimenez has struck out 32 batters in 32 1/3 innings pitched, totaling one strikeout less than he did in the first two months combined. He’s also gotten his command problems under control, issuing just 11 walks and holding batters to a .282 on base percentage. He still isn’t getting ground balls, but his velocity in June (92.9 MPH) is up one MPH from where it was in April (91.9), and he’s commanding the strike zone once again. He still doesn’t look like the pitcher who dominated in Colorado several years ago, but he’s showing that he can still get batters out, and the problems that plagued him early in the season weren’t permanent.

Francisco Liriano, Minnesota Twins.

Liriano was perhaps the worst pitcher in baseball in April, posting an 11.02 ERA that got him kicked out of the Twins rotation, which is a pretty remarkable feat considering that the Twins don’t have many quality pitchers to begin with. Everything was wrong – his fastball velocity (91.6 MPH) was down, his command (7.16 BB/9) was off, he wasn’t getting strikeouts (6.61 K/9), and he was giving up home runs (1.65 HR/9) in bunches. The Twins shipped him off to the bullpen to try to get straightened out, and whatever he did while pitching in relief got him ready to dominate upon rejoining the rotation.

Liriano in June just looks like an entirely different pitcher. His fastball is up to 93.9 MPH, putting him among the hardest throwing southpaws in the league once again. His groundball rate this month is 57.1%, a dramatic turnaround from the 31.6% GB% he posted in April. The walks are down and the strikeouts are up, and opposing batters are hitting just .155/.252/.243 against Liriano in June. He’s always been an inconsistent pitcher, but early in the year, Liriano was throwing batting practice and now he’s making Justin Verlander look like a slacker. Given how he’s throwing, Liriano has gone from a complete disaster to a suddenly interesting trade chip for the Twins at the deadline.

Hiroki Kuroda, New York Yankees

Kuroda didn’t find a lot of interest in the free agent market last winter, both because of his advancing age but also because of the negative perception teams have about importing pitchers from the National League West. While Dodger Stadium isn’t the pitcher’s paradise it used to be, it’s still not a terrible place to pitch, and the road trips include frequent stops in San Diego and San Francisco, two of the best pitcher’s parks in baseball. Going from the NL West to the AL East is perhaps the roughest jump in level of competition and change in ballparks any pitcher can make.

So, when Kuroda started the year as a pitch-to-contact guy with a serious home run problem, many were quick to chide Brian Cashman for not understanding that Kuroda’s numbers were simply a product of his environment. However, as he’s adjusted to his new environment, Kuroda has adapted and was one of baseball’s best pitchers in June.

His strikeout rate in April and May (5.43 K/9) was one of the main sources of concern, but he’s racked up 8.47 K/9 in June, showing that he still has the ability to put hitters away. The home run problem has dissipated as well, and Kuroda’s 2.38 ERA in June is one of the main reasons why the Yankees have gone 19-6 this month. Kuroda might not be quite as dominant as he was during his days in Los Angeles, but he is showing that he can be a good pitcher regardless of what park he’s pitching in, and his success in LA wasn’t all simply due to inferior opponents.

Some records in baseball have become legendary over the years, to the point where most baseball fans know exactly what the number and record holder are. The records for most career no-hitters (7, Nolan Ryan), longest hitting streak (56 games, Joe DiMaggio), consecutive games played (2,632, Cal Ripken), and stolen bases in a season (130, Rickey Henderson) are some of the more famous numbers in the sport, and have stood the test of time with few challengers since they were established. But, there’s actually another record that hasn’t been seriously threatened in 75 years that is coming under assault this season, but you probably haven’t heard much about it yet — Joey Votto is poised to make a run at the record for the most doubles in a season.

The current record holder is Earl Webb, who hit 67 doubles for the Boston Red Sox in 1931. He broke George Burns’ record of 64 doubles that had been set five years previous to that. In fact, only six players in history have ever recorded 60 or more doubles in a season, and all of six of them did it in the 11 seasons between 1926 and 1936. For hitters, it was the golden age of the double.

The last player to even make a run at Webb’s record was Todd Helton in 2000. Aided by playing in Coors Field during the peak of the offensive surge at the turn of the century, Helton finished the season with 59 doubles, and his season represents the gold standard for modern day doubles production. With 30 doubles in his first 68 games, Votto’s on pace to obliterate Helton’s mark and actually run down Webb as well.

At his current pace, Votto would end the season with 71 doubles, and while history suggests he probably can’t keep hitting doubles at this pace, he is the perfect modern day hitter to challenge Webb’s record.

Doubles require line drives, because line drives are both hit hard enough to get into the gaps or down the lines and are not hit high enough to clear any fences for a home run. Among the 330 players with at least 2,000 plate appearances since 2002, only two (Mark Loretta and Todd Helton) have a higher line drive rate than Votto’s 24.8%. He’s turned things up another notch in the first half of 2012, posting a ridiculous 33.0% line drive rate this season, up from the 27.5% mark he posted last year, and easily the best single season line drive rate since batted ball data began being collected.

In addition to hitting line drives, Votto is also remarkable at avoiding infield flies – the kinds of balls in play that are outs nearly 100% of the time. He hasn’t hit a single pop-up all year, which might be weird if he didn’t go the entire 2010 season without hitting an infield fly. In fact, his one pop-up from last year is starting to look like the aberration. When Votto hits the ball, it goes out, not up.

He also excels in one other skill critical to racking up a lot of doubles – driving the ball to the opposite field. Taking out his 13 home runs, Votto has put 170 balls in the field of play this season — 60 to left, 63 to center, 49 to right. His opposite field power is the driving force behind his run at Webb’s doubles records, as half of his 30 doubles have come on balls hit to left field. He’s the league leader in opposite field doubles with 15, but his eight doubles to center field rank fourth in the league, and there are 45 hitters with more pulled doubles this season than Votto. For Votto, left field is his doubles sweet spot.

This combination of high line drive rate and willingness to go to the opposite field is the perfect recipe for a lot of extra base hits that don’t quite clear the wall, and while Votto runs pretty well for a first baseman, he doesn’t run so well that he’s likely to keep on going for third. If Votto was a right-handed hitter, he’d likely have a better chance at turning some of those doubles into triples, but given his average speed and the fact that he’s hitting the ball towards third base, he’s more likely to settle for two bases instead of trying for three. Being a high doubles hitter requires an interesting combination of skills, and no player in today’s game specializes in these more than Votto.

If anything is going to keep him from the record, though, it might just be his home park. The Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati has historically been a below average park for home runs because the shorter fences convert would-be doubles into home runs. In fact, GABP has historically inflated home runs by right-handed hitters (most of whom pull the ball to left field, which is Votto’s doubles field) by 13 percent, while playing as a just slightly below average doubles park due to those home runs.

When you look at the parks that historically inflate doubles (Colorado, Boston, Arizona), you begin to understand why Helton, Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz, Luis Gonzalez, and Matt Holliday have all managed seasons with at least 50 doubles in the past 10 years. Since the Reds opened their new stadium, they’ve only had two hitters get even 40 doubles in a season — Sean Casey in 2004 and Votto last year.

So, can Votto break Webb’s record? It won’t be easy, as he’ll need 38 doubles over the Reds remaining 94 games, and he’s never hit more than 40 in 161 games in any prior season. Even with Votto’s predilection for line drives to the opposite field, the game has changed dramatically since Webb played, as the league average strikeout rate is now more than twice as high as it was back in 1931, while the average home run rate is twice as high. More strikeouts and more home runs equal many fewer chances for doubles, which is why no one has crossed the 60 double mark in 75 years. Votto’s halfway there, though, and has more than half the season remaining, so Webb could be in for his first real challenge in a very long time.

Ryan Dempster pitched very well on Friday, shutting the Red Sox offense out over seven innings. It was the third straight start in which he tossed at least seven shutout innings, reducing his ERA to 2.11 in the process. With his typically strong peripherals, Dempster has already tallied 1.9 WAR in 81 innings, putting him on pace for his highest total since posting 5.2 WAR with the 2008 Cubs. However, given his contractual status and the Cubs futility this season, Dempster is likely to find himself finishing the season in another uniform.

While a few contenders — the Yankees and Dodgers, mostly — have already inquired on his availability, the team Dempster just recently blanked could and should have interest. The Red Sox interest in Cubs pitching doesn’t have to stop there, either, as Matt Garza is conceivably available as well. Both righties would help solidify the Red Sox starting rotation and help them get back into the running for a very obtainable playoff berth.

Neither pitcher would come cheap, but the Red Sox have a solid system and the front office familiarity — Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer run the Cubs now after having served together with the Red Sox for many years — could certainly help matters. The Red Sox might not instantly appear to be natural trade partners for the Cubs pitchers, but they stand to make up some ground as offensive contributors regress to the mean and return from injuries. Adding a 4-5 WAR pitcher to the mix could take them even farther.

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