Cubs Should Avoid Prince Fielder

Barring a blockbuster trade to be named, Prince Fielder’s destination is the next — and last — big thing this offseason.

Fielder, the outgoing Milwaukee Brewers first baseman, is one of the best pure hitters in baseball. He’s coming off a season in which he ranked third in slugging and total bases and second in on-base percentage. At 27, Fielder is also entering what should be the prime of his career. So it’s reasonable to expect that he’ll average 5-7 WAR per season in the next few years (WAR = wins above replacement).

Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs has already argued that the Texas Rangers could benefit greatly from signing Fielder, as could the San Francisco Giants, Cleveland Indians, Miami Marlins and a handful of other hopefuls. This raises a related question: Who doesn’t need Fielder?

Obviously, we could compile a lengthy list of teams with certainty at first base — the big-spending Los Angeles Angels, New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox, for instance — or without the necessary resources to sign Fielder. But what about those teams that, despite a superficial need for a slugger like Fielder, shouldn’t be among his suitors?

Fielder is an elite free agent, and elite free agents almost always command contracts that overpay them — both in years and money — on the back end. The ideal organization for Fielder, then, is one squarely in “win now” mode, and one with the revenue base to withstand his long-term deal once it takes a turn for the burdensome.

The Chicago Cubs, for instance, have been heavily linked to Fielder in recent days. The North Siders certainly have the revenue base to cut a few Faustian bargains on the market — given the perilous straits of the New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers, the Cubs should be regarded as the most well-heeled team in the National League — and they have a pronounced need at first base. However, the Cubs won’t contend in the near future. The St. Louis Cardinals, Brewers and Cincinnati Reds are all better positioned for the next few seasons, whereas the Cubs, saddled with subpar talent at the major and minor league levels, are in need of a bottom-up rebuilding effort. Fielder won’t make them a serious contender now or, most likely, in the seasons to come.

With his body type and defensive shortcomings, Fielder isn’t a great fit for any NL team. After all, he’s within four or five years of needing to be a full-time DH. The Cubs, obviously, can’t offer that.

Another rumored Fielder suitor is the Seattle Mariners. The M’s badly need an upgrade at first base, but like the Cubs, Fielder doesn’t turn them into contenders. In the AL West, the Rangers have claimed the last two pennants, and the Angels, who are coming off 86 wins, have added Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson this winter. There’s really no plausible scenario in which Seattle, which has lost a total of 196 games the past two seasons, will earn a playoff berth in the foreseeable future. Fielder would make them a better team, but he wouldn’t make them a postseason team.

Last, we have the Baltimore Orioles, who are so often drawn to a high-profile free agent at the neglect of, well, everything else. And so it goes with Fielder. Yes, Baltimore could use him in the sense that “Twilight” could use better actors, but really to what end? A slightly less disastrous disaster?

Yes, Orioles first basemen in 2011 combined to hit just .247 AVG/.314 OBP/.440 SLG, so Fielder would constitute an upgrade. Here, however, is the problem that a Fielder signing would in no way address: The Orioles ranked 29th in rotation WAR last season. The reality is that the Orioles could add Fielder to the fold and still be likely to finish in last place by 10 games or so. The addition of Fielder would help sell some tickets, perhaps, and give the illusion of seriousness in Baltimore. But until the Orioles develop or acquire better starting pitching, they are not going to contend in baseball’s toughest division. Fielder helps, but ultimately his signing would be a misallocation of resources and a half-measure.

To be sure, Fielder as an MVP-caliber performer in the here and now can help teams like the Rangers, Giants, Marlins, Washington Nationals and Toronto Blue Jays achieve real and meaningful goals. He can’t, however, do much for the Cubs, Mariners and Orioles. That’s why those three teams should bow out of the bidding.