Have the Marlins Done Enough?

Not even the most privileged of human spawn will have as many holiday gifts to enjoy as the Miami Marlins. Indeed, besides a new ballpark, a new manager and new uniforms, the Marlins have bestowed upon themselves a new star shortstop, a new closer and a new workhorse for the rotation. So among the tattered wrapping paper is a pressing question: Does it all add up to postseason contention for the rebranded Marlins?

Last season, the Marlins limped to 72 wins, the same number of Pythagorean wins and a last-place finish in the National League East. So their baseline for 2012 would seem to be quite low. As you can see below, the Marlins were generally mediocre in all underlying phases of the game.

NL Rank
wOBA 9th
Rotation xFIP 7th
Bullpen xFIP 6th
UZR/150 8th
Run Differential 13th

Of course, there are those on-field improvements. Laying aside the fiscal wisdom of the contracts handed out, the Marlins will certainly be better because of their hot-stove adventures. But after all the hype, will they improve enough to make the playoffs? Let’s start with Jose Reyes. He will provide an offensive and defensive upgrade over what the Marlins got from the shortstop position in 2011. When healthy, Reyes puts up outstanding numbers by positional standards, flashes rare speed on the bases and plays capable defense.

On the downside, Reyes is coming off what was easily his best season on a rate basis, and there’s no guarantee that he’ll be able to replicate those numbers. His 2011 spike was largely attributable to a batting average on balls in play of .353, compared to a .314 career mark. While it’s possible Reyes has established a new level of expected performance, it’s not likely. As well, Reyes hasn’t played in more than 133 games in a season since 2008. Reyes is a fine player and one who’ll likely live up to his new contract. However, some immediate regression is likely.

Also new to Miami will be Mark Buehrle, a pitcher who has notched 11 straight seasons of 200 innings or more. In the near term, Buehrle should benefit from moving out of the DH league and into a park that figures to be far more pitcher-friendly than was U.S. Cellular. Buehrle will almost certainly provide the Marlins with an ERA better than the league average and an innings total worthy of a frontline starter. Considering Josh Johnson’s penchant for injury and Ricky Nolasco’s penchant for inconsistency, Buehrle’s skills are much needed in South Florida.

A number of teams have handed out unwise contracts to closers this offseason, and the Marlins are among them. For a commitment of $27 million, Miami added to the fold Heath Bell, who will take over late-inning duties from Juan Oviedo (formerly Leo Nunez). While Bell certainly constitutes an upgrade, it’s not the degree of upgrade that leads to much improvement in the standings (Bell bested Oviedo by just 0.3 WAR in 2011). Moreover, Bell’s drop in strikeout rate last season might suggest forthcoming decline, and no longer pitching his home games in pitcher-friendly Petco Park might also exact a price.

Elsewhere, there’s the enigmatic Hanley Ramirez. He is coming off a disappointing campaign, but he’s an excellent bounce-back candidate. Ramirez’s core hitting skills remained largely unchanged last season, although a precipitous drop in BABIP led to depressed numbers overall.

As well, Ramirez’s surgically repaired shoulder should be fully healthy, so he’s likely to improve significantly in 2012. If, as planned, he moves to third base, it will address a serious weak spot in the Miami lineup. The shift would also play to Ramirez’s defensive strengths.

All of this, of course, assumes Ramirez will accept the position switch and maintain the proper state of mind.

Above all, though, there’s this reality: In 2011, the Marlins finished 30 games out of the NL East race and 18 games out of playoff position. Assume all contingencies break Miami’s way — the Phillies come back to earth a bit; Reyes doesn’t; Ramirez rebounds; Bell thrives; Mike Stanton shows skills growth; Johnson stays healthy; Buehrle is Buehrle; the run differential better reflects the team’s performance — where does that leave it? Almost certainly not in the postseason. The division title is out of reach, and the buy-in for the NL wild card figures to be 90-plus wins. The Marlins, even with their improvements, aren’t 18 wins better. A realistic goal? A winning season, a third-place finish and a reinvigorated fan base.