Fielder’s Effect on AL Central Race

When this week began, the American League Central was an eminently winnable sort of division. Sure, the Detroit Tigers won 95 games last year, but their Pythagorean record was a more modest 89-73, and in 2012 they’ll be without one of their best hitters in Victor Martinez. That meant an opportunity for an up-and-coming squad like the Cleveland Indians or Kansas City Royals.

But then the Tigers, despite solemn promises that they wouldn’t spend the money, lavished upon Prince Fielder a nine-year, $214 million pact. And now you can write in Detroit’s name at the top of the standings. Use ink if you like.

Sure, the idea of having Fielder, Miguel Cabrera and Delmon Young wield leather at the same time for the same team is enough to haunt one’s dreams, but the powerhouse offense plus a strong rotation fronted by AL MVP and Cy Young winner Justin Verlander is more than enough to overcome those pratfalls in the field. The Tigers, barring a series of minor miracles, will win the division. And that changes things for everyone else in the AL Central.

What of the Indians? By most accounts, they were the team best-positioned to challenge Detroit, but that was before the Tigers added a 5-to-7 win player to the roster. Now, second place seems like a reasonable goal. Last season, the Indians won a respectable 80 games despite having one of the youngest rosters in baseball, and this year they’ll (presumably) enjoy full seasons from the likes of Ubaldo Jimenez and Lonnie Chisenhall.

Plus, Derek Lowe has been added to the rotation, and second base has been upgraded by swapping out Orlando Cabrera for Jason Kipnis. If MLB decides to add another wild card for this season, the Indians might have an outside shot at being in the mix. However, it’s hard to imagine them having a better record than the third-place AL East team and second-place AL West club. The Indians are in an odd spot, but considering their youth they should be in position to compete with Detroit in a year or two, and there is no reason for them to sell anything major.

As for the Royals, they have the kind of offense — an offense capable of scoring 800-plus runs and ranking in the top four of the AL — that could’ve made them contenders in a pre-Prince-to-Detroit world. The rotation is a serious liability, however, and adding Roy Oswalt or Edwin Jackson would’ve been a serious boon to their hopes. Now, though, there seems to be little point. So a “steady as she goes” approach seems most prudent given recent events. Kansas City will be a relevant, contending team soon, but “soon” no longer means 2012.

The Chicago White Sox have a recent history of defying expectations, but it’s hard to envision them making the postseason. This winter, they lost Mark Buehrle to free agency and traded away Carlos Quentin and Sergio Santos. They’ll perhaps have enough pitching to contend, but the offense, once you adjust for park effects and consider what they lose in Quentin, won’t be good enough. The Sox under GM Kenny Williams have been relentlessly disinclined to rebuild, but it’s clearly time.

Their farm system is one of the worst in baseball, bad contracts abound, and they have no legitimate designs on contention. It’s going to be near impossible to find a taker for Adam Dunn, Jake Peavy or Alex Rios, but flipping Gavin Floyd at the non-waiver deadline would net them a sorely needed prospect or two. If it wasn’t obvious before, the Fielder deal makes it clear: time to blow it up.

And speaking of lost causes, we have the 2012 Minnesota Twins.

Minnesota, of course, cratered to 99 losses last season, and there’s little reason to hope for substantial improvement. Even if Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau stay healthy (a perilous assumption, to say the least), the supporting cast in the lineup and the rotation aren’t of contender quality. The bullpen, meanwhile, is potentially one of baseball’s weakest. While Minnesota’s farm system isn’t as barren as the White Sox’s, it’s still unimpressive.

Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Carl Pavano and Jason Marquis are all pending free agents, and if the Twins can find takers, they should deal them in the service of restocking the farm system. The same, really, goes for any veteran on the Minnesota roster. Without an influx of young talent, the Twins aren’t going to contend for some time. Their most marketable player is probably Denard Span, who is signed at a reasonable price through 2014 (with a 2015 club option). His name has come up in trade talks in the past, and he would probably be able to net the most of anyone on the roster if we assume Mauer is not going to be moved. (And considering Mauer’s contract, he might not bring back much anyway.)

In the end, the Tigers’ statement of authority in the AL Central should cause some teams to recalibrate their expectations for 2012 and beyond. The Indians should set their sights on the wild card, the Royals should hold steady, and the White Sox and Twins should — to invoke and quote a musical genre toward which the Sox were once famously hostile — burn this mother down.