Rays Still Among MLB’s Best

The Los Angeles Angels have had the splashiest offseason of any team. The Texas Rangers return an impressive core and may yet add the likes of Yu Darvish and perhaps even Prince Fielder. The New York Yankees, in the span of an hour or two this past Friday, upgraded their rotation by a notable margin. The Philadelphia Phillies return the most vital parts of last year’s 102-win outfit. The Boston Red Sox, despite the upheavals of 2011, have a tremendous amount of talent on the roster. Still and yet, the best team in baseball headed into the 2012 season might just be the Tampa Bay Rays.

That they’re in this discussion is not especially noteworthy. After all, the Rays, despite a basement-level payroll, have made a history of defying expectations: they’ve made the playoffs in three of the past four seasons, and in 2008 they notched a pennant. They achieved all this even though, over that same span, they traded away or lost to the market core performers such as Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, Matt Garza, Scott Kazmir, Jason Bartlett, Rafael Soriano and Johnny Damon, among many others. Yet the Rays, despite roster turnover, financial constraints and a home in baseball’s toughest division, keep on winning. In 2011, the Rays won 91 games, earned the same number of Pythagorean wins and of course seized the AL wild card in white-knuckled fashion. So why might the Rays be even better in 2012?

As always, playing an unbalanced schedule against the likes of the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays will exact a price, but consider what they have in their favor. Foremost among their merits is a tremendous rotation. Last season, Tampa Bay starting pitchers ranked sixth in the AL in xFIP, and that figure should improve in 2012. Back is ace David Price. After finishing second in the Cy Young balloting in 2010, Price slipped to a 3.49 ERA in 2011. However, his xFIP was a career-best 3.32. Given his aging curve and increasing innings load, it’s likely Price will be worth more than five wins above replacement in 2012. Ditto for James Shields, who rebounded from a disappointing 2010 to finish in the top 10 in the AL in WAR last season.

Jeremy Hellickson returns as one of the best young pitchers in all of baseball, and Wade Davis has the makings of a league-average starter, which is a serious asset at the back end of the rotation. And then there is Matt Moore, who is arguably the best young starter in baseball and an early favorite for AL Rookie of the Year. If his late-season (and playoff) performance is any indication, the Rays can challenge the Angels and Phillies for best rotation in the game today.

The Tampa bullpen wasn’t particularly effective in 2011, but the Rays do return the most useful parts in Kyle Farnsworth, Joel Peralta and possibly Brandon Gomes. Jake McGee has the stuff to take a step forward in 2012, and Fernando Rodney might be the latest successful Rays reclamation project. As well, the ground balling Burke Badenhop could thrive now that he’s pitching in front of one of the best infield defenses around (and perhaps the best overall defense around). Expect at least modest improvement from the relief corps.

Offensively, the Rays last year ranked sixth in the AL in wOBA, and once again there’s hope for advances. Evan Longoria, Matt Joyce and Sean Rodriguez are closer to what should be their prime years. They’ll get a full season out of Desmond Jennings, and a healthy Luke Scott figures to give them a power upgrade at DH. At first base, Russ Canzler has the minor league pedigree to be one of the pleasant surprises of 2012. While Jose Molina doesn’t exactly inspire at catcher, it’s worth remembering that last season Tampa Bay catchers combined to hit just .194/.274/.333. It’s possible even the likes of Jose Molina can do better than that.

What you have, then, is a team that figures to be incrementally better in terms of starting pitching, relief pitching and offense and again be one of the top squads in terms of fielding. That places the Rays firmly in the discussion for best team in baseball. Given the aging lineups in Philly and the Bronx, the Rays might indeed be the best team on paper headed into the 2012 season.