Forget Garza, Get Dempster Instead

With the Chicago Cubs in rebuilding mode, Theo Epstein is likely to be a very busy man during this summer’s trading season. The addition of the second wild card incentivizes teams that are hanging around on the periphery of the playoff race to keep their rosters in tact and try to make a second half run, so the Cubs president will be one of just a few people with legitimate talent to unload. In Matt Garza, the team has an asset who could probably command more in return than any other pitcher on the market, but when playoff contenders start hunting around the north side of Chicago, they may do better by letting someone else pay the premium for Garza and instead focus on his less heralded but equally effective teammate – Ryan Dempster.

Dempster might not get the same kind of notoriety as Garza, but when you look at their recent body of work, you can see just how similar they actually are.

2009 – 2012:

Garza: 8.0% BB%, 21.1% K%, 1.02 HR/9
Dempster: 8.7% BB%, 21.5% K%, 1.00 HR/9

Their walk, strikeout, and home run rates are nearly identical over a sample that covers their last three seasons and change. Garza’s ERA is slightly lower (3.76 to 3.95) on account of posting a better batting average on balls in play (.281 to .301), but that’s a mark that is influenced heavily by a team’s defenders, and not surprisingly, a low BABIP isn’t something Garza was able to sustain after leaving Tampa Bay, a team that is often among the best in baseball at turning batted balls into outs.

Despite their similar numbers, there are usually two arguments made in Garza’s favor – his “breakout” 2011 season and his prior success in the American League East. We’ll do with them in that order.

There’s no question that last year was the best year of Garza’s career, setting personal bests in nearly every meaningful category. The most drastic change was in his home run rate (dropping from 1.23 HR/9 in 2010 to 0.64 HR/9 in 2011), which had always been a problem in prior years. Unfortunately, that doesn’t seem to have carried over to 2012, as he’s again giving up home runs in bunches, and his performance this season looks an awful lot like his pre-breakout performance of 2009.

2009: 9.2% BB%, 22.0% K%, 1.11 HR/9
2012: 8.2% BB%, 22.6% K%, 1.24 HR/9

When you account for the relative strength of the different parks and leagues he was pitching in, Garza’s 2009 rated as a 94 xFIP-, which essentially means he was six percent above average in the skills that best predict future pitching performance. In 2012, his numbers equal that same 94 xFIP-, and his career mark is 96. In other words, Garza is pitching to the level you’d expect based on his career norms, and last year looks more like an aberration than any real breakout.

Now, about that success against the tough AL East competitors. It’s true that Garza managed to hold his own while pitching for the Rays, but if the Orioles or Blue Jays are looking to bring him in because of his past success against the Red Sox and Yankees, they might want to look again.

Garza’s career numbers versus MLB: 8.1% BB%, 19.8% K%, 0.99 HR/9
Garza’s career numbers versus BOS: 8.5% BB%, 16.2% K%, 1.22 HR/9
Garza’s career numbers versus NYY: 8.3% BB%, 16.5% K%, 1.49 HR/9

The Red Sox and Yankees historically put some terrific line-ups on the field, so there’s no shame in giving up a lot of home runs against them, but there’s not much evidence to suggest that Garza has some special skill that allows him to hold down the two offensive titans of the division. As most pitchers do, when faced with a series of good hitters, he performs worse than his overall numbers. This isn’t a knock against him, but a team should understand that Garza’s experience pitching in Tampa Bay doesn’t mean he actually performed all that well against the Yankees and Red Sox.

Garza is a quality pitcher, but so is Dempster, and a team willing to settle for a 2012 rotation upgrade only would likely get just as strong of a performance from the Cubs other starting pitcher for sale as they would by acquiring their supposed ace. Given Dempster’s age, higher higher salary, and impending free agency, he won’t require the same kinds of sacrifices in terms of prospects to obtain, and whichever team gets Dempster may find that he’s not just a one year rental after all.

A change in the new collective bargaining agreement requires a team to make a one year qualifying offer equal to the average salary of the 125 highest paid players in baseball – most estimates place that around $12 to $13 million. At age 35, Dempster probably won’t be landing a lucrative long term contract over the winter, and depending on how he finishes the season, he may be tempted to accept an offer of $12 million in salary for 2013 – after all, Hiroki Kuroda was a fairly similar free agent and ended up settling for $10 million last winter. Any team acquiring Dempster could have the option of either getting him back for 2013 at a fair salary without a long term commitment or getting draft pick compensation if he decides to sign elsewhere next winter. Either outcome could be beneficial to the team.

For the rebuilding Cubs, they probably wouldn’t be interested in retaining Dempster at that price next year, so they’re less likely to make the qualifying offer than a club who expects to be a contender. But, other teams in need of a short term rotation upgrade could see Dempster as a significant boost to their playoff chances this year while also offering some potential future value as well.

Garza is the brand name product while Dempster is the generic version, but as in most cases, buying the generic can get you the same product at a fraction of the cost. My advice to teams looking to the Cubs for pitching help – you want Dempster, not Garza.