Reds Gain By Standing Still

Last week’s winter meetings were filled with all sorts of moves, both big and small. There were a few teams, however, who did almost nothing, and the Cincinnati Reds were among them. That kind of inaction will usually make you the target of local talk radio hosts, but in Reds’ case, it might — just might — have put them over the top.

The Reds, of course, muscled their way to the division title in 2010 but regressed last season to 79 wins and a third-place finish. The two teams in front of the Reds in 2011, however, have been diminished by recent events. Most notably, the World Series champion St. Louis Cardinals lost Albert Pujols to the Los Angeles Angels, and then outfielder/first baseman Allen Craig, a vital part of any post-Pujols scenario in St. Louis, was revealed to have undergone knee surgery last month. He’ll be lost until at least May.

The Cardinals certainly have room in the budget to add, say, someone like Carlos Beltran, but so far they look primed to fall from their 90-win level of a year ago, and that’s the case even with the return of pitcher Adam Wainwright from Tommy John surgery. And all of this is to say nothing of the loss of Tony La Russa, who might be the best manager since Joe McCarthy.

Meanwhile, the Milwaukee Brewers, who won the division title flag in 2011, will almost certainly part ways with free agent Prince Fielder, and their rumored fallback plan — a badly needed upgrade at shortstop in the form of Jose Reyes — has already inked with the Marlins. Complicating the Fielder situation is that Mat Gamel, their likely starter at first base, doesn’t figure to even sniff Fielder’s level of production.

Then there’s left fielder Ryan Braun, who could face a crippling 50-game suspension because of his alleged use of a banned substance. And even though the Brew Crew won 96 games last year, their Pythagorean record — which estimates a team’s true talent level based on run differential — was that of a 90-win team. So subtract Prince and 50 games of Braun and you are very easily looking at a .500 team. As for the rest of the division, the Pittsburgh Pirates and Houston Astros are still years away, though the Chicago Cubs could really spice things up if they make a run at Fielder because of just how wide open the division has become.

But let’s get back to the Reds. Unlike the Brewers, the Reds’ Pythagorean record (83-79 last season) portends better days ahead. On offense, young core performers like Joey Votto and Jay Bruce will be another year closer to what should be their prime seasons. Zack Cozart, now that he’s healthy after undergoing Tommy John surgery on his non-throwing arm, should provide a significant upgrade over the awful production the Reds received from the shortstop position last season. The Reds could also be in for an upgrade at the catcher position once Devin Mesoraco is ready to take over for Ryan Hanigan. And Yonder Alonso could add some pop to the outfield or provide some pitching depth if the Reds end up shopping him since he is blocked by Votto at first base, his natural position.

The rotation is an obvious source of concern. Last season, the Reds, despite expectations to the contrary, ranked next to last in the NL in rotation WAR. The good news is that the Reds can assault the problem with depth: Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez, Bronson Arroyo, Mike Leake, Homer Bailey, and Travis Wood all return, and Aroldis Chapman might get a look as a starter, provided his shoulder holds up.

It’s obviously a bit odd to proclaim a team that was below .500 last season to be the division favorite, but considering the talent drain in the rest of the division, it’s hard to bet against the Reds. You’ve probably read a lot of stories about the “winners” and “losers” from the winter meetings. Well, Cincy might have gained the most of any club, and they did it without spending a dime.