The current iterations of the Texas Rangers, Boston Red Sox and Atlanta Braves have at least three things in common: all three crafted their own tragic endings to the 2011 season, all three figure to contend again in 2012, and all three teams don’t need to do very much in order to do so.

Sure, the Hot Stove is very much about conspicuous consumption. For teams with designs on the belt and the title, anything less than the splashiest addition might be regarded as a half-measure. For teams like the Rangers, Red Sox and Braves, this perhaps goes double: a crushing near-miss should beget major changes. Or at least that’s what many observers seem to think. As mentioned, however, there’s no need for a purge in Arlington or Boston or Atlanta, and there’s no need for pricey, top-tier signings.

First, take the back-to-back American League champion Rangers. Last season, they barged to 96 wins in the regular season, which is right in line with what could be expected based on their run differential. For 2012, they have under contract or under team control core performers like Adrian Beltre, Josh Hamilton, Michael Young, Ian Kinsler, Nelson Cruz, Elvis Andrus, Mike Napoli, and every starting pitcher not named C.J. Wilson.

Given Mitch Moreland’s modest upside and wrist problems, there’s some talk that the Rangers may pursue Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder this winter. Yet that may be an unwise allocation of resources for Texas. A better option might be a lower-cost hedge like Carlos Pena or Casey Kotchman. That would leave room in the budget to re-sign Wilson, although the conversion of Neftali Feliz to starter means that the rotation has depth with or without their incumbent ace.

On the whole, the Rangers are in a winnable division and have a great deal of talent already locked down. Big contracts — big contracts that may later prove to be burdensome — aren’t necessary for another run.

As for the Red Sox, lost in their lacerating collapse is the fact that they won 90 despite playing 84 games against teams with .500 records or better. More than chicken thighs, beer cans and video games, injuries — an inordinate number of injuries — are mostly to blame. During the 2011 season, 15 players on Boston’s major-league roster, most of them regulars, made at least one trip to the disabled list. Such a high figure is almost bound to improve in 2012.

Otherwise, the holes are few. Re-signing David Ortiz would fill out the lineup, and that lineup figures to again be one of baseball’s best. The loss of John Lackey to Tommy John surgery (hardly a bad thing from a cold-eyed organizational perspective) means the back of the rotation could use some depth, but there’s no need for a pricey frontline addition. The Sox wisely passed on re-upping Jonathan Papelbon at the absurd going rates, and Daniel Bard is ready to take over as closer. Middle-relief help is needed, but that’s never difficult to dig up, at least for a resourceful team. The overarching point is that the Sox, as presently constructed, are prepared to make a serious run in 2012. Wholesale changes aren’t necessary in the least.

Finally, the Braves. Like the Red Sox, they endured an impossible late-season collapse, but, also like the Red Sox, they’re in good shape for the season to come. Making Derek Lowe go away was a good thing, and the rotation behind Tim Hudson (provided sub-aces Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens are able to stay healthy) looks strong. When depth is needed, Julio Teheran and Mike Minor are ready to step in, or even seize a job out of spring training. Given the workloads foisted upon Craig Kimbrel and Jonny Venters, an addition or two to the relief corps is in order.

On offense, the Braves must hope that Jason Heyward, further removed from his shoulder injury, can rebound. They need help at short, but they won’t be in the market for a Jose Reyes or even a Jimmy Rollins. A reunion with Rafael Furcal? Or perhaps they might be willing to shop starting pitching in order to fill the shortstop hole (and perhaps snag an upgrade in left). And speaking of that upgrade in left, there’s enough out there for the Braves to cobble together a low-cost platoon.

While the offense won’t be exceptional, there’s some cause to think the Braves will improve on this front in 2012. To wit, better health for Heyward and Brian McCann, a full season of Michael Bourn, no uncharacteristic early-season slump from Dan Uggla, and skills growth from the already impressive Freddie Freeman are all reasonable expectations. Sure, the Braves have more needs than the Rangers or Red Sox, but the National League provides more margin for error these days. And there’s also the possibility of expanded playoffs in 2012.

Fans of contenders will always be frustrated by moves at the margins, but sometimes — as in the case of the 2012 Rangers, Red Sox and Braves — that’s all that’s needed to ensure another run.

Without question, Albert Pujols is going to command the largest contract of the offseason. And while there will much rejoicing in the streets for fans of the team that signs him (or re-signs him, in the case of the St. Louis Cardinals), they should know that Pujols’ next contract figures to be one of the riskiest in the annals of free agency.

Pujols, obviously, is a future first-ballot Hall of Famer and still one of the top hitters in all of baseball. Last season, his numbers slipped a bit, but he still managed to finish second in the NL with 37 home runs. As well, his wRC+ of 148 is the same as his mark in 2002, which reflects the fact that offense was down across all of baseball last season.

With all that said, the fact remains that Pujols is in decline. His wRC+ peaked in 2008 at 184 and then began a steady downward trend: 182 in 2009, 165 in 2010 and last season’s 148. Given his age, none of this is especially surprising. Last season, Pujols suffered a precipitous decline in his batting average on balls in play (a career-low .277), which could be somewhat attributable to bad luck/random variation or could be the symptom of a slowing bat. He also experienced a spike in his ground-ball rate — it jumped from 38.3 percent to 44.7 percent — which is potentially a troubling sign.

It bears repeating that Pujols remains a top-tier hitter and probably will remain as much for the next handful of seasons. The rub is that the market will likely treat him as something more than that.

If the rumors are any guide, then Pujols received a nine-year offer from the Cardinals last offseason and perhaps from the Miami Marlins last week. Since Pujols will turn 32 in January, that means a nine-year pact would run through his age-40 season. The average annual value of his next contract will surely exceed $20 million per, so that means Pujols will almost certainly fetch a deal in excess of $180 million over nine seasons. The whims of the market could alter those parameters, but that’s a fair guess at the minimum buy-in.

So you’ve got a slugger who’s in his 30s and already showing signs of decline but who’s also poised to fetch what will be one of the most lucrative contracts ever. Needless to say, the team that signs him will be assuming a great deal of risk.

The usual high-revenue suitors — i.e., the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Angels — almost certainly won’t be bidding since they are set at first base. As well, stalwarts like the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets won’t be in the running thanks to owner incompetence (Mets) or malfeasance (Dodgers). So Pujols will likely fall to a club that may not be able to budget around him once he becomes a liability. To be sure, Pujols is a “brand-building” type of player who helps the bottom line over and above what he does on the field. Still, though, it’s lot of money and a lot of years for a player whose best days are almost certainly behind him.

In terms of historical comparables, the contract Mark Teixeira signed in advance of the 2009 season is probably strongest in terms of dollars and length (eight years, $180 million). The distinction, however, is that Teixeira was 28 when he inked his deal. And even that contract looks as though it could wind up being a burden.

Once age and contract dimensions are both considered, Alex Rodriguez’s 2007 mega-deal with the Yankees is perhaps most instructive. Pujols won’t match the $275 million lavished upon Rodriguez, but the contract length won’t be far off. Rodriguez was 32 in the first season under the contract in question, just as Pujols will be in 2012. Rodriguez in that first year put up strong numbers, but his descent since then, both in terms of productivity and durability, is undeniable. Since Rodriguez’s deal runs through 2017, things are going to get even uglier.

On this point, it’s worth noting that Pujols, as a first baseman, is already on the far left end of the defensive spectrum, so there’s no place to move him (in the National League, anyway) as he ages and loses mobility and athleticism. The other difference, of course, is that Rodriguez toils for the Yankees, who are uniquely positioned to withstand bad contracts. The team that signs Pujols — which almost certainly won’t be the Yankees or anyone else of their tax bracket — won’t be similarly blessed. If, say, the Cardinals are paying Pujols $20 million per (or more) for his age 36-40 seasons, that could be a serious drag on the team’s ability to build a competitive roster around him or treat him as a sunk cost.

A perfect lesson in this regard is the Minnesota Twins. Just a year-and-a-half ago they were lauded for signing hometown hero and reigning AL MVP Joe Mauer to an eight-year, $184 million extension. Mauer was just about to turn 27 at the time, and it looked like a no-brainer. However, he has been dogged by leg problems, and has hit a total of 12 home runs since signing the contract. There is already talk of moving him off catcher, and he will be paid $23 million per year through 2018 while occupying anywhere from 25 to 35 percent of the Twins’ payroll.

Overpaying at the back end of a contract in order to wring value out of the front end is nothing unusual. But considering Pujols’ age, performance trends, appeal on the free-agent market and the decidedly un-Yankee-like resources of the team that eventually signs him, Pujols’ next contract can be regarded as one of the riskiest we’ve ever seen.

This year’s World Series was truly a fall classic. However, for the fans of the other 28 teams, it was just one more week before the fun of the Hot Stove season begins.

As we saw with the St. Louis Cardinals signing Lance Berkman before this season, sometimes one signing can go a long way. With that in mind, here’s a look at the five biggest holes that need to be filled this winter, and how that can be accomplished.

San Francisco Giants: shortstop

It’s something of a minor miracle that the Giants were able to win 86 games and notch a second-place finish despite ranking 15th in the National League in wOBA. As you can imagine, that was due to a systemic failure on offense, but the most obvious need going forward is an upgrade at shortstop. Last season, Giants shortstops combined to “hit” a measly .210/.265/.299. Suffice it to say, that’s an unacceptable level of production. Since there’s little in Brandon Crawford’s minor league dossier to suggest he can hit at the highest level, an external solution is necessary.

The free-agent gold standard is, of course, Jose Reyes. While the Giants certainly have the resources to afford him, it figures to be a crowded fray of suitors. The next-best option is Jimmy Rollins, who can still provide above-average production by positional standards and plus fielding. Down-ballot options include, for the most part, Rafael Furcal. So if there’s any team that needs to be committed to paying the going rate for Reyes, it’s San Fran. This might be the best fit in term of need, resources and solution in this year’s market.

Chicago Cubs: first base

No, the Cubs are probably not going to contend in 2012, but this is more about establishing a foundation for future seasons. You can’t gauge the market for a player until after he signs, but provided conditions aren’t grossly out of whack, the Cubs should pursue Albert Pujols and/or Prince Fielder.

First and foremost, either would fill what will be a gaping hole following the departure of Carlos Pena (more on him in a moment). Second, both are excellent, established and popular players who would help build the brand in addition to helping win games. Third, either would be plucked directly from a division rival.

Concerns? Certainly. Pujols is aging and could potentially command a contract that extends beyond the bounds of his usefulness. And Fielder’s body type doesn’t lend itself to productivity deep into one’s 30s, though he has played at least 157 games in every season since 2006. Still, both are going to be top-tier performers for at least the next handful of seasons, and that matters to the Cubs. The buy-in for contention in the NL Central is relatively low, particularly when you consider two things: The Cubs’ resources are so much greater than those of their label-mates, and the Central will probably soon be a five-team division.

For Cubs fans, it would be a rousing way to begin the Age of Theo.

Cleveland Indians: first base

The Tribe, garrisoned with a solid lineup, underrated rotation and strong bullpen, could challenge in the AL Central next season. They could also, however, use an upgrade at first base.

Obviously, Cleveland doesn’t have the revenue to sign Pujols or Fielder. The Indians should, however, be able to afford a Carlos Pena. Last season, Pena tallied 28 homers and 101 walks for the Cubs, and he hit .255/.388/.504 against right-handed pitching. The Indians could use Pena to forge a platoon with the heretofore disappointing Matt LaPorta, and they could continue, for at least one more season, deploying Carlos Santana as their regular catcher.

Washington Nationals: center field

It’s absolutely possible the Nats will contend for a playoff berth in 2012. They went 80-81 this past season, and in 2012 they’ll enjoy (one assumes) a full season of Stephen Strasburg. Additionally, young core contributors like Ryan Zimmerman, Ian Desmond, Danny Espinosa, and Wilson Ramos will be another year closer to what should be their prime seasons.

One glaring weakness, however, is center field. In 2011, Nats center fielders ranked near the bottom of the league in WAR. Chief placeholder Roger Bernardina can be a useful fourth outfielder in the majors, but as a regular center fielder he’s stretched, both with the bat and the glove.

Fortunately, the Nats have some options. They tried to trade for Denard Span before the trade deadline in July, and that remains a possible (if not optimal) outcome. Some more intriguing options can be found on the market. Provided he can still handle the physical rigors of the position, Carlos Beltran would be an excellent fit. He’d give the Nats a whopping upgrade offensively, and even in decline Beltran’s a better fielder than what they trotted out last season. In the “calculated risk” category, there’s Grady Sizemore, who might be on his way out of Cleveland thanks to his injury history and pricey option for 2012. When healthy, Sizemore is an elite talent, but the rub, of course, is staying healthy. Nonetheless, he’s the sort of high-upside, risky addition that can distinguish a mid-market squad trying to surmount an established behemoth like the Phillies. Elsewhere, Coco Crisp, while not much of a hitter these days, would provide a lower-cost upgrade over the incumbents.

New York Yankees: starting rotation

The Yankees’ offense can forgive many a pitching sin, and, despite its age, that offense should again be potent in 2012. With that said, the Yanks will have rotation concerns, and that will be the case even if they’re able to retain CC Sabathia.

They can hope A.J. Burnett achieves tolerability, and they can hope that Phil Hughes is able to stay healthy. They can also hope that pups like Dellin Betances and Manny Banuelos can contribute. Even so, they’re still likely to need established help behind Sabathia and Ivan Nova. So long as Sabathia is back, they can lower their aim a bit. A veteran capable of 180 to 200 innings and league-average-ish ERA will suffice given the front end and given the likely run support. To that end, possibilities include Edwin Jackson, Paul Maholm or, best of all, Hiroki Kuroda.

In the absence of Sabathia? Then the Yankees will need to make at least one splash addition. Unfortunately for their purposes, this year’s free-agent crop is light on such hurlers. C.J. Wilson leads all comers, and then there’s Mark Buehrle or perhaps the tantalizing promise of Japanese phenom Yu Darvish. It’s obvious the Yankees will add an arm; the question is how much they will spend. If they go all in, Darvish is probably the play.

If both League Championship Series are any guide, the bullpens of the St. Louis Cardinals and Texas Rangers will play important roles in determining the World Series champion.

The Cardinals’ bullpen weakened the powerful Milwaukee Brewers lineup in the NLCS, posting a 1.88 ERA for the series. Even more noteworthy is that in the NLCS, the Cardinals’ bullpen worked more innings (28 2/3) than and threw almost as many pitches (431) as the St. Louis starters (24 1/3 innings and 450 pitches). St. Louis’ rotation yielded zero quality starts, only one outing of at least five innings and only one win. It’s a minor miracle that despite such lousy starting pitching, the Cardinals won the series in six games and outscored the Brewers 43-26. Their story, rare though it may be, is not unlike Texas’. In their six-game ALCS triumph, the Rangers also benefited from uncommon bullpen excellence (1.32 ERA) and an uncommon bullpen workload (27 1/3 innings and 391 pitches). Viva la pitching changes!

There’s also a flip side to all of this: The Rangers are moving on despite an ALCS rotation ERA of 6.59 and the Cardinals despite an NLCS rotation ERA of 7.03. If the Philadelphia Phillies’ early exit didn’t kill off the “starting pitching uber alles” strain of postseason thought, these LCS outcomes surely will. At least for 2011.

All of these improbabilities raise a question looking forward: Who has the bullpen edge in the World Series?

In the regular season, the Cardinals ranked 11th in the 16-team NL with a bullpen ERA of 3.73. However, the worst Cardinals relievers during the regular season will play no role in the World Series. If you remove from the calculus the numbers of Ryan Franklin, Miguel Batista, Bryan Augenstein, Maikel Cleto, P.J. Walters, Brian Tallet, Trever Miller and, um, Skip Schumaker (Aug. 23!), the bullpen ERA drops to 2.83. In other words, the bullpen that the Cardinals will trot out for the 107th World Series will be very, very good.

What’s particularly encouraging from St. Louis’ standpoint is that its current relievers are stingy when it comes to giving up homers. Against the Texas offense, which ranked second in the majors in home runs, that will serve them well, especially when the scene shifts to Arlington. The Cardinals have plenty of impact right-handed arms to counter righty power bats like ALCS MVP Nelson Cruz, Adrian Beltre and Mike Napoli, who, on a rate basis, was one of the best hitters in baseball this season.

From the left side there’s Marc Rzepczynski, who has been incredibly effective since adjusting his arm slot. There’s also Arthur Rhodes, but he’s been ineffective even in his limited role. On the upside, Josh Hamilton is Texas’ only power left-handed bat, and he’s hardly himself these days. Also, the Rangers likely won’t have any switch-hitters on their World Series roster.

The real key in the middle and later innings is that the Cards could blunt the Rangers’ right-handed attack with right-handers like Jason Motte, Lance Lynn, Fernando Salas, Octavio Dotel and Mitchell Boggs. The series could hinge on that strength-versus-strength subplot.

For Texas, things are similarly promising. The Rangers ranked a meager 12th in the American League in bullpen ERA this season, but if you look at runs per game to eliminate the mostly pointless distinction between earned and unearned runs, the Texas ‘pen improves to fifth in the AL. Alexi Ogando, assuming he’s deployed as a reliever in the World Series, provides a nifty upgrade over what was in place for most of the regular season, and Neftali Feliz has emerged as one of the elite relief arms in baseball.

With Ogando spending the summer in the rotation, Rangers GM Jon Daniels buttressed his relief corps by acquiring right-handers Mike Adams and Koji Uehara at the non-waiver trade deadline. Adams has pitched in line with his excellent career norms, but Uehara has struggled to keep the ball in the park. That’s not surprising given his fly-ball tendencies, but he could be useful when the situation demands a strikeout. Depth from the left side is a concern for Texas, but the same goes for St. Louis.

Given recent events, workloads could be worrisome. These, of course, are cumulative matters, so it’s worth noting that in the full light of the regular season, the Rangers are much better off in terms of games pitched, multiple-inning appearances, appearances on consecutive days and total number of relief innings and pitches.

All things considered, rating the teams’ relief corps appears to be a perilously close call. Both bullpens as presently assembled are better than the overall numbers would suggest, and both are coming off heavy, stressful usage. Still, give the slight edge to the Cardinals because of how their young and outstanding relief arms match up with the driving forces of the Texas offense.

The Milwaukee Brewers, St. Louis Cardinals and the open-roof jet stream at Miller Park combined for 15 runs in the opener of the NLCS (a 9-6 Milwaukee win), and the Texas Rangers, Detroit Tigers and the rain cloud that follows Justin Verlander wherever he goes lately yielded a 3-2 Texas victory in the ALCS.

And so the American League and National League championship series have unfolded similarly: The home team won Game 1.

There is, of course, a self-evident advantage to winning Game 1: The team that takes the opener needs to play merely .500 ball during the remainder of the series in order to advance. The team that loses Game 1, meanwhile, must win at least four of six, which is — breaking news to follow — substantially more difficult. In fact, over the sprawling history of the seven-game series in baseball, the Game 1 winner takes the series a shade less than 66 percent of the time.

But what happens when, as in the cases of the Brewers and Rangers, the team that wins Game 1 is also the team in possession of home-field advantage? Is the distinction significant?

In the history of the best-of-seven League Championship Series (meaning from 1985 — when the LCS expanded from a best-of-five format to the current best-of-seven — through 2010), if the home team wins Game 1, then that team goes on to win the series 61.5 percent of the time. And in the history of the best-of-seven World Series (the 1903 and 1919-1921 seasons have been omitted because of the best-of-nine format, which is sadly no longer with us), the home team that wins Game 1 takes the entire affair 69 percent of the time.

So, for whatever reason(s), Game 1 outcomes are somewhat less predictive in the LCS than they are in the World Series and, by extension, the postseason as a whole. Why would this be the case? Answering this question is a speculative exercise.

Perhaps familiarity with the opposition and the opposition’s home park contributes to those compressed winning percentages? Perhaps it’s the similar roster construction (NL teams have no need to plan for the DH, and AL teams have no need to plan for batting the pitcher) that plays a role? Perhaps it’s the function of a limited sample size (just 26 series meet the criteria)?

Whatever the elements in play, combine the data pools (i.e., lump together all best-of-seven series) and the home team that wins the opener goes on to win the series 66.7 percent of the time, which is roughly the same percentage for all Game 1 winners. In other words, teams that win the series opener go on to win the whole thing about two-thirds of the time, regardless of whether it is the home or road team. It’s the mere winning of Game 1 that matters greatly, not where that win occurs.

Additionally, the value of winning Game 1 of a series is less in a seven-game series than in one with only five games. But even so, the Brewers and Rangers now have the advantage by jumping out to 1-0 starts, and they have the aforementioned odds in their favor.

Winning Game 1? A very good thing. Winning Game 1 as the home team? That’s irrelevant, as it turns out.

In his ALDS victory over the New York Yankees, Jim Leyland used a different line-up in each game. The mixing and matching worked out when he got key hits from the likes of Ramon Santiago and Don Kelly, but the Tigers also only managed to score 17 runs in the series, and they’ll have to produce more offense against the Rangers if they want a shot at the World Series.

So, we’re here to lend Leyland a hand, and help him come up with a steady line-up that can maximize his team’s offensive output against Texas. He has some good hitters, but the order in which they’re being used could be improved. Given that the Rangers are going to throw left-handers C.J. Wilson, Derek Holland, and Matt Harrison in the series, he’ll also want to focus on getting his best anti-southpaw hitters to the plate as often as possible.

The line-up below might be unconventional, but it would improve the Tigers chances of scoring runs and advancing to the World Series.

#1: Ramon Santiago, 2B, Switch – .305 wOBA

Austin Jackson’s speed has kept him at the top of the order all season, but the reality is that he just doesn’t hit well enough to justify staying there. He struck out in 27 percent of trips to the plate this year, and the Yankees were able to consistently get him out by throwing off-speed pitches out of the zone. Santiago isn’t anyone’s idea of Rickey Henderson, but his better contact rates and performance against southpaws this year win him the top spot in the batting order.

#2: Victor Martinez, DH, Switch – .368 wOBA

Martinez has gotten a lot of credit for making pitchers pay after they intentionally walk Miguel Cabrera, but right now, Cabrera needs someone in front of him who can get on base. He came up with the bases empty far too often in the ALDS, and moving Martinez’s .380 OBP to the second spot in the line-up will give the Tigers star more RBI opportunities. Having two switch-hitters at the top of the line-up will also help keep the line-up stable when the Rangers go to the bullpen.

#3: Delmon Young, LF, Right – .303 wOBA

While most teams give the #3 spot to their best hitter, Leyland has this one right, as Cabrera is more likely to produce runs from the #4 spot in the order. Young’s OBP isn’t what you’d like from a hitter in this spot, but he hit left-handers significantly better than right-handers and has enough power to drive Martinez in on his own from time to time.

#4: Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Right – .436 wOBA

This one’s easy – he’s the beast of the Tigers line-up and belongs in the run producing spot. The rest of the line-up is just there to try and ensure he gets chances to do as much damage as possible.

#5: Jhonny Peralta, SS, Right – .353 wOBA

Peralta wasn’t able to sustain his tremendous first half performance, and he faded a bit down the stretch. However, he’s still one of the Tigers best hitters, and he has enough power to make teams pay for pitching around Cabrera.

#6: Ryan Raburn, RF, Right – .314 wOBA

Magglio Ordonez got most of the playing time in round one, but Raburn is just the better player, especially against a left-handed heavy pitching staff. He hit .274/.321/.486 against southpaws this year, and he was the Tigers second best hitter in the final two months of the season. Compared to Ordonez, he’s also a defensive upgrade in right field.

#7: Alex Avila, C, Left – .383 wOBA

If Avila was healthy, I’d suggest hitting him a lot higher, but his knee problems appeared to be taking a significant strain on him at the plate in the ALDS. His production was a huge part of why the Tigers got to the playoffs in the first place, and if he shows he’s healthy, he should move up to the #5 spot in the order, but the current version of Avila barely resembles the one that the Tigers saw in the regular season.

#8: Austin Jackson, CF, Right – .309 wOBA

While Jackson’s speed may seem wasted at the bottom of the order, this is actually a better spot for his skills. The negative value associated with a caught stealing is dramatically reduced with weaker hitters coming to the plate, so Jackson could run more frequently when he does get on base.

#9: Brandon Inge, 3B, Right – .247 wOBA

Inge had a terrible season by any standard, but most of his struggles came against right-handed pitchers, whom he hit .170/.220/.228 against. He was reasonably effective against left-handers (.245/.339/.378) and has a significant platoon split over the course of his career, so the Tigers should be willing to roll him out there against the Rangers’ southpaws. As soon as the Rangers go to the bullpen, though, Wilson Betemit should be ready to pinch-hit – Inge should never face a right-hander in a close playoff game.

Both American League Division Series stand at 1-1, and that provides us with at least two key considerations. First, both series are now, for all intents and purposes, best-of-three series; and second, the lower-seeded team in each series now enjoys home-field advantage. Given these facts, is it time to recalibrate our expectations as far as the Detroit Tigers-New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays-Texas Rangers series are concerned? The short answer: yes.

Here’s how the pitching matchups for rest of the Tigers-Yankees series will look:

Game 3 — CC Sabathia vs. Justin Verlander
(at Detroit)
Game 4 — A.J. Burnett vs. Rick Porcello
(at Detroit)
Game 5 (if necessary) — TBD vs. Doug Fister (at New York)

That suspension of Game 1 on Friday night pushed each team’s ace back to Game 3 and switched the venue. The latter consequence won’t mean much to Verlander, who hasn’t shown any home-road tendencies of note this season. The same goes for Sabathia.

Comerica Park, however, may present some challenges to the Yankees’ offense. They’ll be facing a pair of right-handers in Detroit, and that means Mark Teixeira and Nick Swisher will be batting from the left side. While both players hit for more power as left-handed batters, Comerica greatly suppresses the power numbers of left-handed batters. For park factors, a score of 100 is average. And as you can see in the link, Comerica has a home run park factor of 88 for left-handed hitters, which is well below average (lower numbers favor pitchers). In fact, only one AL park — Kauffman Stadium — has cut down on lefty home runs to a greater extent. In contrast, Yankee Stadium is, by a rather absurd margin, the most accommodating environment in all of baseball for left-handed power hitters with a left-handed home run factor of 143. Some Yankees hitters — Curtis Granderson and Robinson Cano, in addition to Teixeira and Swisher — will suffer as a result. For an offense that depends heavily on lefty power, this is not good news.

While the sample size is quite small, it’s also worth noting that the Yankees went 1-3 in Comerica Park during the season and scored just 10 total runs in those four games. Quite possibly, that’s because Comerica’s peculiarities dovetail with those of the 2011 Yankees.

The other, perhaps larger consequence of the Game 1 rainout is that Burnett (5.20 ERA over the last two years) will be given a start. Ideally for their purposes, the Yankees would have been able to give a pair of starts to Sabathia and thus avoid inflicting Burnett upon themselves and the world at large. Instead, Burnett will pitch Game 4 in Detroit, which will be one team’s chance to close it out. Burnett, of course, has induced more hand-wrings in 2011 than any pitcher not named John Lackey.

Indeed, Burnett has struggled mightily away from home, and he’s struggled more mightily still against right-handed batters (and this has generally been the case throughout his career). Righties had an .831 OPS against him this year, while lefties have a .777 mark. Those trends will work against him in Game 4. The Tigers, if manager Jim Leyland chooses to do so, can lard the lineup with right-handed hitters such as Miguel Cabrera, Jhonny Peralta, Magglio Ordonez, Austin Jackson and Delmon Young. If the Tigers want to get crazy, they might even have switch-hitter Victor Martinez bat from the right side against Burnett. Martinez has a line of .368 AVG /.478 OBP/.579 SLG against righties as a right-handed hitter in his career (in just 23 plate appearances). Presumably, that’s mostly come against knuckleballers, but Burnett’s splits are such that it’s worth discussing.

Based on the fact that the Yankees’ primary offensive strength is neutralized by Comerica Park, and the fact that they will be forced to use Burnett, the Tigers are legitimate favorites to win each of the next two games.

Rays-Rangers

Game 3 — Colby Lewis vs. David Price (at Tampa Bay)
Game 4 — Matt Harrison vs. Jeremy Hellickson (at Tampa Bay)
Game 5 (if necessary) — James Shields vs. C.J. Wilson (at Texas)

Lewis, a right-hander, likes to pitch on the road (3.43 ERA on the road this year, 5.54 at home), and he likes to face same-side hitters (.616 OPS against). On the flip side, Price could struggle against the righty-heavy Texas lineup: In his career, righties have homered once every 37 plate appearances against Price, while lefties have gone yard once every 63 PAs. So while Price is a better pitcher overall, the location of the game and the makeup of the Rangers’ lineup make this pitching matchup a lot more even than it appears at first glance.

With that said, the Rays will have an edge in Game 4. Hellickson gets to pitch Game 4 at home, where his numbers are uniformly better this season, and, as mentioned, the Rangers’ lineup is almost exclusively right-handed, which will benefit him.

And that brings us to Game 5. Rookie sensation Matt Moore utterly tamed the Rangers in Game 1, but Rays manager Joe Maddon is still saying that Shields will be his Game 5 starter if he needs one. It’s hard to properly analyze this game without knowing the starting pitcher, and Moore is proving to be this October’s big X factor.

We know the Rangers will start Wilson, one of this season’s most effective pitchers. However, despite his recent credentials, Wilson was abused in Game 1 opposite Moore, so the usual narrative of “playoff veteran versus untested rookie” yielded unanticipated results. And Wilson, in the regular season and his lone 2011 postseason start, has, by his own standards, struggled at home (3.69 ERA at home, 2.31 away).

In the end, this remains the most difficult series to predict. If pressed, bet on Texas’ superior offense, underrated back-end relief corps and solid rotation to carry the day, but Moore could change everything.

It would seem to be an easy choice. After all, in the 2010 ALCS the New York Yankees were thumped in six games by the Texas Rangers. So it follows that the Yankees, in the 2011 postseason, would prefer to avoid the incumbent American League champs for as long as possible — if not entirely.

Of course, with the AL wild card almost certain to come from the East Division, that means the Yankees will play either the Detroit Tigers or those menacing Rangers in the ALDS. Right now, Texas has a one-game lead on Detroit, and if that holds, the Yankees will face the Tigers. And while that might seem like good news for the Bronx Bombers, it’s actually not. In fact, the Rangers are a far more accommodating matchup for the Yankees than the Tigers.

Is this just idle talk from the idle contrarian? Far from it. In this case, the numbers bear it out.

First and most obviously are the regular-season results. This season, the Yankees are 7-2 against the Rangers with a run differential of plus-27. Against the Tigers, meantime, the Yankees are 3-4 with a run differential of minus-3.

The Yankees’ offense, of course, is a power attack. They pace the majors in homers (217) by a spacious margin. More specifically, when Yankees hitters put the ball in the air, the ball tends to cross the outfield fence quite often, at least in relative terms. When it comes to home runs per fly ball, the Yankees lead the majors, again with a cushion.

All these tendencies of New York hitters wouldn’t be terribly relevant if they didn’t dovetail quite nicely with the tendencies of Texas pitchers. Miracle of miracles, it turns out they do! The Texas staff ranks fourth in the 14-team AL in fly-ball rate, which, one may surmise, is not a good thing when facing the Yankees. Worse still is that the Rangers’ staff yields the third-highest HR/FB rate in the AL. All of that, to summon a related metaphor, is in the Yankees’ wheelhouse.

Some of that latter figure is, of course, owing to the character of the Rangers’ home ballpark, but we’re not concerned with neutral context in this instance. Rather, we’re concerned with how the Rangers’ staff will fare against the cloutin’ Yankees lineup in homer-friendly Arlington and almost-as-homer-friendly Yankee Stadium. The expectation based on recent history is: not well.

On the flip side, the Rangers’ offense is much like New York’s in that Texas batters hit home runs (second to the Yanks in the majors) and hit a high rate of homers per fly ball (also second to the Yanks in the majors). However, the Yankees’ staff isn’t similarly inclined to help them out. Yankees pitchers, unlike their Rangers counterparts, keep the ball on the ground (second-lowest fly-ball percentage in the AL) and do a significantly better job when it comes to preventing home runs on fly balls. And if this series comes to pass, then it will likely come to just that.

Depending on how the Rangers structure their ALDS rotation, the Yankees could face a lefty four times in a potential set that goes the full five games. In a five-game series, the Yanks would face lefty ace C.J. Wilson twice and fellow lefties Derek Holland and Matt Harrison, provided Holland and Harrison are both part of the ALDS rotation. That’s four lefties in five games. At a minimum, the Yankees would face a left-handed starter three times in a five-game series against Texas.

The significance, as you might have guessed, is that the Yankees have crushed left-handed pitching this season. In fact, Yankees batsmen lead the AL versus lefties in … deep breath … home runs (there’s that one again), OBP, SLG (and OPS!), wOBA, wRC+, wRAA and HR/FB (there’s that one again). Or, stated another way, they lead the AL versus lefties in quite a lot of things. This is not good news for Texas.

And what of those alternative Tigers? Contrary to what the Yankees would prefer, Detroit pitchers do not give up many fly balls and do not surrender many home runs on the fly balls they do permit. Furthermore, the Tigers will have no lefties in their playoff rotation. Plus, there’s the whole “two lethal doses of Justin Verlander in a short series” consideration.

So despite what you might think, the Yankees should be pulling for the Tigers this week so that they can play the defending AL champs in the ALDS.

Barring an epic meltdown in the season’s final week, Craig Kimbrel is almost certain to take home the National League Rookie of the Year award, and rightfully so – he’s been the best reliever in baseball this year. However, the picture is much more crowded over in the American League, where Mark Trumbo, Ivan Nova, Jeremy Hellickson, Michael Pineda, and Jordan Walden all lead AL rookies in at least one category, and will likely all get support when the ballots are cast.

While those five each have counting stats that stand out from the crowd, none of them have made the same impact as Tampa Bay outfielder Desmond Jennings. Because the Rays opted to keep him in Triple-A until July 23rd, Jennings has only played in 56 games, far short of the record for fewest games played by a Rookie of the Year winner – Ryan Howard’s 88 games played in 2005. However, since getting called up, Jennings has been one of the best players in the game, and his output has helped push the Rays back into playoff contention.

At the plate, Jennings has posted a 147 wRC+ (meaning his offensive performance was 47 percent better than league average), second best among AL rookies. That mark trails only Toronto’s Brett Lawrie, who managed to play just 43 games in Toronto due to injuries. For comparison, Jacoby Ellsbury is going to get MVP votes, and he’s posted a 148 wRC+ this season. What Jennings lacks in quantity, he has made up for in quality, performing at the same level as most of the game’s superstars.

It’s easy to dismiss Jennings as a viable candidate based on the fact that he’s only played in the majors for the final two months of the season, but the reality is that the voters have a history of rewarding terrific performances in smaller doses. Howard won them over in 2005 by swatting 22 home runs down the stretch for the Phillies, Buster Posey captured the award last year despite not joining the Giants until early June, and perhaps most tellingly, relief pitchers have been heavily represented among recent winners.
If Kimbrel wins the NL trophy as expect, he will join Neftali Feliz, Andrew Bailey, Huston Street, and Kazuhiro Sasaki as relievers to take home the award since the year 2000. In each case, the voters focused on how dominant they were in a smaller sample, choosing them over position players and starting pitchers who played in a far greater percentage of their team’s innings.

Number of Batters Faced in ROY Season

Neftali Feliz (2010): 269
Andrew Bailey (2009): 323
Huston Street (2005): 306
Kazuhiro Sasaki (2000): 265

Closers have routinely been rewarded for their excellence in retiring around 300 batters in a season. With six games remaining, Jennings has already come to the plate 254 times this year, and will end the year with more plate appearances than batters faced for either Feliz or Sasaki in the years their excellence was rewarded. If we include his time spent as a defender as well (he’s made 105 putouts as an outfielder), it’s clear that he’s been directly involved in as many run saving situations as any of the closers who have been won the award.

Voters have established that this level of quantity is sufficient for recognition if the dominance is clear enough in a shorter number of appearances. Well, in the last 20 years, no American League rookie with at least 250 plate appearances has posted a better wRC+ than Jennings 147 mark this year. Even expanding to the National League, the only rookies to post a higher mark than what Jennings has put up are Albert Pujols, Ryan Braun, and Mike Piazza.
Clearly, Jennings has played at a level that would have made him the obvious choice had the Rays called him up earlier. So, now, the question is simply whether a financially motivated decision to keep him in the minors should be held against Jennings, or whether his late season run of greatness should be enough to garner consideration along with those who played at a lower level over a longer period of time.

With Howard and Posey, the voters have clearly shown that they are willing to consider players who spent a good chunk of their season in the minors, only to come up and play well in the second half of the season. They’ve also rewarded four closers for seasons in which other qualified candidates had much larger amounts of playing time. The recent history of the Rookie of the Year balloting shows that quality can trump quantity, and in the American League this season, that should hold true as well.

There is a time for measured, philosophic calm, and there is a time for unrestrained panic. In Boston, it is time for the latter.

Despite a recent bevy of championships in a bevy of different sports, Boston and environs remain, to a large extent, home to the stricken Calvinist. As such, what’s unfolded over the past several days has left Boston Red Sox fans lost in a state of misery and in the embrace of worst-case scenarios.

What, exactly, has unfolded over the last several days? Those plucky Tampa Bay Rays, despite being outfitted with a payroll that’s roughly 26 percent of Boston’s, have hawked down the Red Sox in the AL wild-card chase and now sit two games back of Boston. Central to those developments is the fact that Tampa Bay has taken five of six from the Red Sox.

So how did such a thing come to pass? On the Boston side of things, it’s been a systemic breakdown. However, the pitching staff has been even worse: Boston starters, already hobbled beyond recognition, are lugging around a 6.37 ERA for the month, and Boston relievers over that same span have an aggregate ERA of 5.81. Hence that 4-13 record in September.

However, it’s not just the pitching that is at fault. The Boston offense is presently posting its worst monthly OPS since April. Dustin Pedroia has been particularly abysmal. He entered the season’s final month as an MVP candidate, but is hitting just .217 in September with 14 strikeouts and two walks. He had 66 whiffs and 80 bases on balls entering the month. The Rays were also able to take advantage of a major Sox weakness by swiping 11 bases in 13 attempts over the weekend. Boston has allowed an MLB-worst 142 steals on the season.

Given these trends and the afflicted state of the Boston roster, most of us expect the Rays to overtake the Sox and claim the AL wild card for the first time in franchise history. Seems inevitable, no? Yet despite all that’s been said about Boston’s current problems and Tampa Bay’s current merits, Boston’s probably going to be fine. For now.

Yes, a two-game lead, particularly considering what’s happened over the past fortnight, seems vanishingly thin. But this late in the season, it’s not. The Red Sox and Rays each have 10 games left to play in the regular season, and at this late hour any lead is a substantial one. To put a finer point on it, even after Sunday’s outcomes, the Sox have a 90.3 percent chance of making the postseason and the Rays an 8.6 percent chance of doing the same. Adjust those figures based on momentum and health if you like, but the Sox will remain heavy favorites to prevail. And they’ve got something else going for them besides the math — the schedule.

Here’s what’s ahead for the Red Sox: BAL, BAL, BAL, BAL, @NYY, @NYY, @NYY, @BAL, @BAL, @BAL.

And here’s what’s ahead for Tampa Bay: @NYY, @NYY, @NYY, @NYY, TOR, TOR, TOR, NYY, NYY, NYY.

The Red Sox will play seven more games against the lowly Orioles, against whom they are 8-3 in 2011. The Rays, meanwhile, will play their final 10 games against teams that have an average winning percentage of .574. To state the obvious, the Rays have a significantly tougher final stretch than the Red Sox do, and that’s the case even if the Yankees are in “cruise control” mode for the final series of the regular season and decide to rest their regulars.

Based on the Red Sox schedule, it’s hard to imagine them doing any worse than 5-5 over their next 10 games. (Remember, Josh Beckett is back.) Therefore, the Rays would need to go 7-3 just to tie the Red Sox and force a one-game playoff. And based on their slate, a 6-4 record is always a likely outcome for Boston, which would mean the Rays would need to go 8-2 to tie Boston. Possible? Sure. Likely? Not really.

In sum, despite what you hear and feel, the Red Sox, buttressed by a two-game lead and a far more accommodating docket of games, are very likely to prevail in the AL wild-card race. Trends notwithstanding, the Rays simply are running out of time. And nothing portends triumph in a tight race quite like playing the Orioles in 70 percent of your remaining games, which describes the Red Sox.