Archive for ESPN Insider 2011

With their two big splashy free-agent signings this winter, the Los Angeles Angels have become a trendy pick to win in the American League West. Certainly, adding Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson to a roster that won 86 games last year seems like a formula for a playoff berth, but the Angels are one of the contending teams that need to plan on at least one key player from 2011 taking a pretty big step backward during the upcoming season.

Howie Kendrick, 2B
In Anaheim’s case, its regression candidate is second baseman Howie Kendrick. On the surface, Kendrick’s numbers from last season don’t seem out of line with his career numbers. His .285 average was below his career mark. He set his career high in home runs with 18, after hitting just 10 homers in each of the previous two seasons. That jump doesn’t appear too far out of line for a player coming into his prime.

However, Kendrick didn’t just have a career year at the plate in 2011. He also had one in the field, and that’s where the Angels can expect a pretty substantial step backward. From 2006 to 2010, Kendrick played just over 3,800 innings at second base and posted an Ultimate Zone Rating ( UZR) of plus-8.6, or an average of plus-3 runs per full season. In just over 900 innings at the position last year, Kendrick posted a UZR of plus-14.4 runs, or a total of nearly plus-20 runs over the course of an entire year — a mark that ranked him as baseball’s top defensive second baseman in 2011.

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Barring a blockbuster trade to be named, Prince Fielder’s destination is the next — and last — big thing this offseason.

Fielder, the outgoing Milwaukee Brewers first baseman, is one of the best pure hitters in baseball. He’s coming off a season in which he ranked third in slugging and total bases and second in on-base percentage. At 27, Fielder is also entering what should be the prime of his career. So it’s reasonable to expect that he’ll average 5-7 WAR per season in the next few years (WAR = wins above replacement).

Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs has already argued that the Texas Rangers could benefit greatly from signing Fielder, as could the San Francisco Giants, Cleveland Indians, Miami Marlins and a handful of other hopefuls. This raises a related question: Who doesn’t need Fielder?

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Not even the most privileged of human spawn will have as many holiday gifts to enjoy as the Miami Marlins. Indeed, besides a new ballpark, a new manager and new uniforms, the Marlins have bestowed upon themselves a new star shortstop, a new closer and a new workhorse for the rotation. So among the tattered wrapping paper is a pressing question: Does it all add up to postseason contention for the rebranded Marlins?

Last season, the Marlins limped to 72 wins, the same number of Pythagorean wins and a last-place finish in the National League East. So their baseline for 2012 would seem to be quite low. As you can see below, the Marlins were generally mediocre in all underlying phases of the game.

NL Rank
wOBA 9th
Rotation xFIP 7th
Bullpen xFIP 6th
UZR/150 8th
Run Differential 13th

Of course, there are those on-field improvements. Laying aside the fiscal wisdom of the contracts handed out, the Marlins will certainly be better because of their hot-stove adventures. But after all the hype, will they improve enough to make the playoffs? Let’s start with Jose Reyes. He will provide an offensive and defensive upgrade over what the Marlins got from the shortstop position in 2011. When healthy, Reyes puts up outstanding numbers by positional standards, flashes rare speed on the bases and plays capable defense.

On the downside, Reyes is coming off what was easily his best season on a rate basis, and there’s no guarantee that he’ll be able to replicate those numbers. His 2011 spike was largely attributable to a batting average on balls in play of .353, compared to a .314 career mark. While it’s possible Reyes has established a new level of expected performance, it’s not likely. As well, Reyes hasn’t played in more than 133 games in a season since 2008. Reyes is a fine player and one who’ll likely live up to his new contract. However, some immediate regression is likely.

Also new to Miami will be Mark Buehrle, a pitcher who has notched 11 straight seasons of 200 innings or more. In the near term, Buehrle should benefit from moving out of the DH league and into a park that figures to be far more pitcher-friendly than was U.S. Cellular. Buehrle will almost certainly provide the Marlins with an ERA better than the league average and an innings total worthy of a frontline starter. Considering Josh Johnson’s penchant for injury and Ricky Nolasco’s penchant for inconsistency, Buehrle’s skills are much needed in South Florida.

A number of teams have handed out unwise contracts to closers this offseason, and the Marlins are among them. For a commitment of $27 million, Miami added to the fold Heath Bell, who will take over late-inning duties from Juan Oviedo (formerly Leo Nunez). While Bell certainly constitutes an upgrade, it’s not the degree of upgrade that leads to much improvement in the standings (Bell bested Oviedo by just 0.3 WAR in 2011). Moreover, Bell’s drop in strikeout rate last season might suggest forthcoming decline, and no longer pitching his home games in pitcher-friendly Petco Park might also exact a price.

Elsewhere, there’s the enigmatic Hanley Ramirez. He is coming off a disappointing campaign, but he’s an excellent bounce-back candidate. Ramirez’s core hitting skills remained largely unchanged last season, although a precipitous drop in BABIP led to depressed numbers overall.

As well, Ramirez’s surgically repaired shoulder should be fully healthy, so he’s likely to improve significantly in 2012. If, as planned, he moves to third base, it will address a serious weak spot in the Miami lineup. The shift would also play to Ramirez’s defensive strengths.

All of this, of course, assumes Ramirez will accept the position switch and maintain the proper state of mind.

Above all, though, there’s this reality: In 2011, the Marlins finished 30 games out of the NL East race and 18 games out of playoff position. Assume all contingencies break Miami’s way — the Phillies come back to earth a bit; Reyes doesn’t; Ramirez rebounds; Bell thrives; Mike Stanton shows skills growth; Johnson stays healthy; Buehrle is Buehrle; the run differential better reflects the team’s performance — where does that leave it? Almost certainly not in the postseason. The division title is out of reach, and the buy-in for the NL wild card figures to be 90-plus wins. The Marlins, even with their improvements, aren’t 18 wins better. A realistic goal? A winning season, a third-place finish and a reinvigorated fan base.

Last week’s winter meetings were filled with all sorts of moves, both big and small. There were a few teams, however, who did almost nothing, and the Cincinnati Reds were among them. That kind of inaction will usually make you the target of local talk radio hosts, but in Reds’ case, it might — just might — have put them over the top.

The Reds, of course, muscled their way to the division title in 2010 but regressed last season to 79 wins and a third-place finish. The two teams in front of the Reds in 2011, however, have been diminished by recent events. Most notably, the World Series champion St. Louis Cardinals lost Albert Pujols to the Los Angeles Angels, and then outfielder/first baseman Allen Craig, a vital part of any post-Pujols scenario in St. Louis, was revealed to have undergone knee surgery last month. He’ll be lost until at least May.

The Cardinals certainly have room in the budget to add, say, someone like Carlos Beltran, but so far they look primed to fall from their 90-win level of a year ago, and that’s the case even with the return of pitcher Adam Wainwright from Tommy John surgery. And all of this is to say nothing of the loss of Tony La Russa, who might be the best manager since Joe McCarthy.

Meanwhile, the Milwaukee Brewers, who won the division title flag in 2011, will almost certainly part ways with free agent Prince Fielder, and their rumored fallback plan — a badly needed upgrade at shortstop in the form of Jose Reyes — has already inked with the Marlins. Complicating the Fielder situation is that Mat Gamel, their likely starter at first base, doesn’t figure to even sniff Fielder’s level of production.

Then there’s left fielder Ryan Braun, who could face a crippling 50-game suspension because of his alleged use of a banned substance. And even though the Brew Crew won 96 games last year, their Pythagorean record — which estimates a team’s true talent level based on run differential — was that of a 90-win team. So subtract Prince and 50 games of Braun and you are very easily looking at a .500 team. As for the rest of the division, the Pittsburgh Pirates and Houston Astros are still years away, though the Chicago Cubs could really spice things up if they make a run at Fielder because of just how wide open the division has become.

But let’s get back to the Reds. Unlike the Brewers, the Reds’ Pythagorean record (83-79 last season) portends better days ahead. On offense, young core performers like Joey Votto and Jay Bruce will be another year closer to what should be their prime seasons. Zack Cozart, now that he’s healthy after undergoing Tommy John surgery on his non-throwing arm, should provide a significant upgrade over the awful production the Reds received from the shortstop position last season. The Reds could also be in for an upgrade at the catcher position once Devin Mesoraco is ready to take over for Ryan Hanigan. And Yonder Alonso could add some pop to the outfield or provide some pitching depth if the Reds end up shopping him since he is blocked by Votto at first base, his natural position.

The rotation is an obvious source of concern. Last season, the Reds, despite expectations to the contrary, ranked next to last in the NL in rotation WAR. The good news is that the Reds can assault the problem with depth: Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez, Bronson Arroyo, Mike Leake, Homer Bailey, and Travis Wood all return, and Aroldis Chapman might get a look as a starter, provided his shoulder holds up.

It’s obviously a bit odd to proclaim a team that was below .500 last season to be the division favorite, but considering the talent drain in the rest of the division, it’s hard to bet against the Reds. You’ve probably read a lot of stories about the “winners” and “losers” from the winter meetings. Well, Cincy might have gained the most of any club, and they did it without spending a dime.

The current iterations of the Texas Rangers, Boston Red Sox and Atlanta Braves have at least three things in common: all three crafted their own tragic endings to the 2011 season, all three figure to contend again in 2012, and all three teams don’t need to do very much in order to do so.

Sure, the Hot Stove is very much about conspicuous consumption. For teams with designs on the belt and the title, anything less than the splashiest addition might be regarded as a half-measure. For teams like the Rangers, Red Sox and Braves, this perhaps goes double: a crushing near-miss should beget major changes. Or at least that’s what many observers seem to think. As mentioned, however, there’s no need for a purge in Arlington or Boston or Atlanta, and there’s no need for pricey, top-tier signings.

First, take the back-to-back American League champion Rangers. Last season, they barged to 96 wins in the regular season, which is right in line with what could be expected based on their run differential. For 2012, they have under contract or under team control core performers like Adrian Beltre, Josh Hamilton, Michael Young, Ian Kinsler, Nelson Cruz, Elvis Andrus, Mike Napoli, and every starting pitcher not named C.J. Wilson.

Given Mitch Moreland’s modest upside and wrist problems, there’s some talk that the Rangers may pursue Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder this winter. Yet that may be an unwise allocation of resources for Texas. A better option might be a lower-cost hedge like Carlos Pena or Casey Kotchman. That would leave room in the budget to re-sign Wilson, although the conversion of Neftali Feliz to starter means that the rotation has depth with or without their incumbent ace.

On the whole, the Rangers are in a winnable division and have a great deal of talent already locked down. Big contracts — big contracts that may later prove to be burdensome — aren’t necessary for another run.

As for the Red Sox, lost in their lacerating collapse is the fact that they won 90 despite playing 84 games against teams with .500 records or better. More than chicken thighs, beer cans and video games, injuries — an inordinate number of injuries — are mostly to blame. During the 2011 season, 15 players on Boston’s major-league roster, most of them regulars, made at least one trip to the disabled list. Such a high figure is almost bound to improve in 2012.

Otherwise, the holes are few. Re-signing David Ortiz would fill out the lineup, and that lineup figures to again be one of baseball’s best. The loss of John Lackey to Tommy John surgery (hardly a bad thing from a cold-eyed organizational perspective) means the back of the rotation could use some depth, but there’s no need for a pricey frontline addition. The Sox wisely passed on re-upping Jonathan Papelbon at the absurd going rates, and Daniel Bard is ready to take over as closer. Middle-relief help is needed, but that’s never difficult to dig up, at least for a resourceful team. The overarching point is that the Sox, as presently constructed, are prepared to make a serious run in 2012. Wholesale changes aren’t necessary in the least.

Finally, the Braves. Like the Red Sox, they endured an impossible late-season collapse, but, also like the Red Sox, they’re in good shape for the season to come. Making Derek Lowe go away was a good thing, and the rotation behind Tim Hudson (provided sub-aces Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens are able to stay healthy) looks strong. When depth is needed, Julio Teheran and Mike Minor are ready to step in, or even seize a job out of spring training. Given the workloads foisted upon Craig Kimbrel and Jonny Venters, an addition or two to the relief corps is in order.

On offense, the Braves must hope that Jason Heyward, further removed from his shoulder injury, can rebound. They need help at short, but they won’t be in the market for a Jose Reyes or even a Jimmy Rollins. A reunion with Rafael Furcal? Or perhaps they might be willing to shop starting pitching in order to fill the shortstop hole (and perhaps snag an upgrade in left). And speaking of that upgrade in left, there’s enough out there for the Braves to cobble together a low-cost platoon.

While the offense won’t be exceptional, there’s some cause to think the Braves will improve on this front in 2012. To wit, better health for Heyward and Brian McCann, a full season of Michael Bourn, no uncharacteristic early-season slump from Dan Uggla, and skills growth from the already impressive Freddie Freeman are all reasonable expectations. Sure, the Braves have more needs than the Rangers or Red Sox, but the National League provides more margin for error these days. And there’s also the possibility of expanded playoffs in 2012.

Fans of contenders will always be frustrated by moves at the margins, but sometimes — as in the case of the 2012 Rangers, Red Sox and Braves — that’s all that’s needed to ensure another run.

Without question, Albert Pujols is going to command the largest contract of the offseason. And while there will much rejoicing in the streets for fans of the team that signs him (or re-signs him, in the case of the St. Louis Cardinals), they should know that Pujols’ next contract figures to be one of the riskiest in the annals of free agency.

Pujols, obviously, is a future first-ballot Hall of Famer and still one of the top hitters in all of baseball. Last season, his numbers slipped a bit, but he still managed to finish second in the NL with 37 home runs. As well, his wRC+ of 148 is the same as his mark in 2002, which reflects the fact that offense was down across all of baseball last season.

With all that said, the fact remains that Pujols is in decline. His wRC+ peaked in 2008 at 184 and then began a steady downward trend: 182 in 2009, 165 in 2010 and last season’s 148. Given his age, none of this is especially surprising. Last season, Pujols suffered a precipitous decline in his batting average on balls in play (a career-low .277), which could be somewhat attributable to bad luck/random variation or could be the symptom of a slowing bat. He also experienced a spike in his ground-ball rate — it jumped from 38.3 percent to 44.7 percent — which is potentially a troubling sign.

It bears repeating that Pujols remains a top-tier hitter and probably will remain as much for the next handful of seasons. The rub is that the market will likely treat him as something more than that.

If the rumors are any guide, then Pujols received a nine-year offer from the Cardinals last offseason and perhaps from the Miami Marlins last week. Since Pujols will turn 32 in January, that means a nine-year pact would run through his age-40 season. The average annual value of his next contract will surely exceed $20 million per, so that means Pujols will almost certainly fetch a deal in excess of $180 million over nine seasons. The whims of the market could alter those parameters, but that’s a fair guess at the minimum buy-in.

So you’ve got a slugger who’s in his 30s and already showing signs of decline but who’s also poised to fetch what will be one of the most lucrative contracts ever. Needless to say, the team that signs him will be assuming a great deal of risk.

The usual high-revenue suitors — i.e., the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Angels — almost certainly won’t be bidding since they are set at first base. As well, stalwarts like the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets won’t be in the running thanks to owner incompetence (Mets) or malfeasance (Dodgers). So Pujols will likely fall to a club that may not be able to budget around him once he becomes a liability. To be sure, Pujols is a “brand-building” type of player who helps the bottom line over and above what he does on the field. Still, though, it’s lot of money and a lot of years for a player whose best days are almost certainly behind him.

In terms of historical comparables, the contract Mark Teixeira signed in advance of the 2009 season is probably strongest in terms of dollars and length (eight years, $180 million). The distinction, however, is that Teixeira was 28 when he inked his deal. And even that contract looks as though it could wind up being a burden.

Once age and contract dimensions are both considered, Alex Rodriguez’s 2007 mega-deal with the Yankees is perhaps most instructive. Pujols won’t match the $275 million lavished upon Rodriguez, but the contract length won’t be far off. Rodriguez was 32 in the first season under the contract in question, just as Pujols will be in 2012. Rodriguez in that first year put up strong numbers, but his descent since then, both in terms of productivity and durability, is undeniable. Since Rodriguez’s deal runs through 2017, things are going to get even uglier.

On this point, it’s worth noting that Pujols, as a first baseman, is already on the far left end of the defensive spectrum, so there’s no place to move him (in the National League, anyway) as he ages and loses mobility and athleticism. The other difference, of course, is that Rodriguez toils for the Yankees, who are uniquely positioned to withstand bad contracts. The team that signs Pujols — which almost certainly won’t be the Yankees or anyone else of their tax bracket — won’t be similarly blessed. If, say, the Cardinals are paying Pujols $20 million per (or more) for his age 36-40 seasons, that could be a serious drag on the team’s ability to build a competitive roster around him or treat him as a sunk cost.

A perfect lesson in this regard is the Minnesota Twins. Just a year-and-a-half ago they were lauded for signing hometown hero and reigning AL MVP Joe Mauer to an eight-year, $184 million extension. Mauer was just about to turn 27 at the time, and it looked like a no-brainer. However, he has been dogged by leg problems, and has hit a total of 12 home runs since signing the contract. There is already talk of moving him off catcher, and he will be paid $23 million per year through 2018 while occupying anywhere from 25 to 35 percent of the Twins’ payroll.

Overpaying at the back end of a contract in order to wring value out of the front end is nothing unusual. But considering Pujols’ age, performance trends, appeal on the free-agent market and the decidedly un-Yankee-like resources of the team that eventually signs him, Pujols’ next contract can be regarded as one of the riskiest we’ve ever seen.

This year’s World Series was truly a fall classic. However, for the fans of the other 28 teams, it was just one more week before the fun of the Hot Stove season begins.

As we saw with the St. Louis Cardinals signing Lance Berkman before this season, sometimes one signing can go a long way. With that in mind, here’s a look at the five biggest holes that need to be filled this winter, and how that can be accomplished.

San Francisco Giants: shortstop

It’s something of a minor miracle that the Giants were able to win 86 games and notch a second-place finish despite ranking 15th in the National League in wOBA. As you can imagine, that was due to a systemic failure on offense, but the most obvious need going forward is an upgrade at shortstop. Last season, Giants shortstops combined to “hit” a measly .210/.265/.299. Suffice it to say, that’s an unacceptable level of production. Since there’s little in Brandon Crawford’s minor league dossier to suggest he can hit at the highest level, an external solution is necessary.

The free-agent gold standard is, of course, Jose Reyes. While the Giants certainly have the resources to afford him, it figures to be a crowded fray of suitors. The next-best option is Jimmy Rollins, who can still provide above-average production by positional standards and plus fielding. Down-ballot options include, for the most part, Rafael Furcal. So if there’s any team that needs to be committed to paying the going rate for Reyes, it’s San Fran. This might be the best fit in term of need, resources and solution in this year’s market.

Chicago Cubs: first base

No, the Cubs are probably not going to contend in 2012, but this is more about establishing a foundation for future seasons. You can’t gauge the market for a player until after he signs, but provided conditions aren’t grossly out of whack, the Cubs should pursue Albert Pujols and/or Prince Fielder.

First and foremost, either would fill what will be a gaping hole following the departure of Carlos Pena (more on him in a moment). Second, both are excellent, established and popular players who would help build the brand in addition to helping win games. Third, either would be plucked directly from a division rival.

Concerns? Certainly. Pujols is aging and could potentially command a contract that extends beyond the bounds of his usefulness. And Fielder’s body type doesn’t lend itself to productivity deep into one’s 30s, though he has played at least 157 games in every season since 2006. Still, both are going to be top-tier performers for at least the next handful of seasons, and that matters to the Cubs. The buy-in for contention in the NL Central is relatively low, particularly when you consider two things: The Cubs’ resources are so much greater than those of their label-mates, and the Central will probably soon be a five-team division.

For Cubs fans, it would be a rousing way to begin the Age of Theo.

Cleveland Indians: first base

The Tribe, garrisoned with a solid lineup, underrated rotation and strong bullpen, could challenge in the AL Central next season. They could also, however, use an upgrade at first base.

Obviously, Cleveland doesn’t have the revenue to sign Pujols or Fielder. The Indians should, however, be able to afford a Carlos Pena. Last season, Pena tallied 28 homers and 101 walks for the Cubs, and he hit .255/.388/.504 against right-handed pitching. The Indians could use Pena to forge a platoon with the heretofore disappointing Matt LaPorta, and they could continue, for at least one more season, deploying Carlos Santana as their regular catcher.

Washington Nationals: center field

It’s absolutely possible the Nats will contend for a playoff berth in 2012. They went 80-81 this past season, and in 2012 they’ll enjoy (one assumes) a full season of Stephen Strasburg. Additionally, young core contributors like Ryan Zimmerman, Ian Desmond, Danny Espinosa, and Wilson Ramos will be another year closer to what should be their prime seasons.

One glaring weakness, however, is center field. In 2011, Nats center fielders ranked near the bottom of the league in WAR. Chief placeholder Roger Bernardina can be a useful fourth outfielder in the majors, but as a regular center fielder he’s stretched, both with the bat and the glove.

Fortunately, the Nats have some options. They tried to trade for Denard Span before the trade deadline in July, and that remains a possible (if not optimal) outcome. Some more intriguing options can be found on the market. Provided he can still handle the physical rigors of the position, Carlos Beltran would be an excellent fit. He’d give the Nats a whopping upgrade offensively, and even in decline Beltran’s a better fielder than what they trotted out last season. In the “calculated risk” category, there’s Grady Sizemore, who might be on his way out of Cleveland thanks to his injury history and pricey option for 2012. When healthy, Sizemore is an elite talent, but the rub, of course, is staying healthy. Nonetheless, he’s the sort of high-upside, risky addition that can distinguish a mid-market squad trying to surmount an established behemoth like the Phillies. Elsewhere, Coco Crisp, while not much of a hitter these days, would provide a lower-cost upgrade over the incumbents.

New York Yankees: starting rotation

The Yankees’ offense can forgive many a pitching sin, and, despite its age, that offense should again be potent in 2012. With that said, the Yanks will have rotation concerns, and that will be the case even if they’re able to retain CC Sabathia.

They can hope A.J. Burnett achieves tolerability, and they can hope that Phil Hughes is able to stay healthy. They can also hope that pups like Dellin Betances and Manny Banuelos can contribute. Even so, they’re still likely to need established help behind Sabathia and Ivan Nova. So long as Sabathia is back, they can lower their aim a bit. A veteran capable of 180 to 200 innings and league-average-ish ERA will suffice given the front end and given the likely run support. To that end, possibilities include Edwin Jackson, Paul Maholm or, best of all, Hiroki Kuroda.

In the absence of Sabathia? Then the Yankees will need to make at least one splash addition. Unfortunately for their purposes, this year’s free-agent crop is light on such hurlers. C.J. Wilson leads all comers, and then there’s Mark Buehrle or perhaps the tantalizing promise of Japanese phenom Yu Darvish. It’s obvious the Yankees will add an arm; the question is how much they will spend. If they go all in, Darvish is probably the play.

If both League Championship Series are any guide, the bullpens of the St. Louis Cardinals and Texas Rangers will play important roles in determining the World Series champion.

The Cardinals’ bullpen weakened the powerful Milwaukee Brewers lineup in the NLCS, posting a 1.88 ERA for the series. Even more noteworthy is that in the NLCS, the Cardinals’ bullpen worked more innings (28 2/3) than and threw almost as many pitches (431) as the St. Louis starters (24 1/3 innings and 450 pitches). St. Louis’ rotation yielded zero quality starts, only one outing of at least five innings and only one win. It’s a minor miracle that despite such lousy starting pitching, the Cardinals won the series in six games and outscored the Brewers 43-26. Their story, rare though it may be, is not unlike Texas’. In their six-game ALCS triumph, the Rangers also benefited from uncommon bullpen excellence (1.32 ERA) and an uncommon bullpen workload (27 1/3 innings and 391 pitches). Viva la pitching changes!

There’s also a flip side to all of this: The Rangers are moving on despite an ALCS rotation ERA of 6.59 and the Cardinals despite an NLCS rotation ERA of 7.03. If the Philadelphia Phillies’ early exit didn’t kill off the “starting pitching uber alles” strain of postseason thought, these LCS outcomes surely will. At least for 2011.

All of these improbabilities raise a question looking forward: Who has the bullpen edge in the World Series?

In the regular season, the Cardinals ranked 11th in the 16-team NL with a bullpen ERA of 3.73. However, the worst Cardinals relievers during the regular season will play no role in the World Series. If you remove from the calculus the numbers of Ryan Franklin, Miguel Batista, Bryan Augenstein, Maikel Cleto, P.J. Walters, Brian Tallet, Trever Miller and, um, Skip Schumaker (Aug. 23!), the bullpen ERA drops to 2.83. In other words, the bullpen that the Cardinals will trot out for the 107th World Series will be very, very good.

What’s particularly encouraging from St. Louis’ standpoint is that its current relievers are stingy when it comes to giving up homers. Against the Texas offense, which ranked second in the majors in home runs, that will serve them well, especially when the scene shifts to Arlington. The Cardinals have plenty of impact right-handed arms to counter righty power bats like ALCS MVP Nelson Cruz, Adrian Beltre and Mike Napoli, who, on a rate basis, was one of the best hitters in baseball this season.

From the left side there’s Marc Rzepczynski, who has been incredibly effective since adjusting his arm slot. There’s also Arthur Rhodes, but he’s been ineffective even in his limited role. On the upside, Josh Hamilton is Texas’ only power left-handed bat, and he’s hardly himself these days. Also, the Rangers likely won’t have any switch-hitters on their World Series roster.

The real key in the middle and later innings is that the Cards could blunt the Rangers’ right-handed attack with right-handers like Jason Motte, Lance Lynn, Fernando Salas, Octavio Dotel and Mitchell Boggs. The series could hinge on that strength-versus-strength subplot.

For Texas, things are similarly promising. The Rangers ranked a meager 12th in the American League in bullpen ERA this season, but if you look at runs per game to eliminate the mostly pointless distinction between earned and unearned runs, the Texas ‘pen improves to fifth in the AL. Alexi Ogando, assuming he’s deployed as a reliever in the World Series, provides a nifty upgrade over what was in place for most of the regular season, and Neftali Feliz has emerged as one of the elite relief arms in baseball.

With Ogando spending the summer in the rotation, Rangers GM Jon Daniels buttressed his relief corps by acquiring right-handers Mike Adams and Koji Uehara at the non-waiver trade deadline. Adams has pitched in line with his excellent career norms, but Uehara has struggled to keep the ball in the park. That’s not surprising given his fly-ball tendencies, but he could be useful when the situation demands a strikeout. Depth from the left side is a concern for Texas, but the same goes for St. Louis.

Given recent events, workloads could be worrisome. These, of course, are cumulative matters, so it’s worth noting that in the full light of the regular season, the Rangers are much better off in terms of games pitched, multiple-inning appearances, appearances on consecutive days and total number of relief innings and pitches.

All things considered, rating the teams’ relief corps appears to be a perilously close call. Both bullpens as presently assembled are better than the overall numbers would suggest, and both are coming off heavy, stressful usage. Still, give the slight edge to the Cardinals because of how their young and outstanding relief arms match up with the driving forces of the Texas offense.

The Milwaukee Brewers, St. Louis Cardinals and the open-roof jet stream at Miller Park combined for 15 runs in the opener of the NLCS (a 9-6 Milwaukee win), and the Texas Rangers, Detroit Tigers and the rain cloud that follows Justin Verlander wherever he goes lately yielded a 3-2 Texas victory in the ALCS.

And so the American League and National League championship series have unfolded similarly: The home team won Game 1.

There is, of course, a self-evident advantage to winning Game 1: The team that takes the opener needs to play merely .500 ball during the remainder of the series in order to advance. The team that loses Game 1, meanwhile, must win at least four of six, which is — breaking news to follow — substantially more difficult. In fact, over the sprawling history of the seven-game series in baseball, the Game 1 winner takes the series a shade less than 66 percent of the time.

But what happens when, as in the cases of the Brewers and Rangers, the team that wins Game 1 is also the team in possession of home-field advantage? Is the distinction significant?

In the history of the best-of-seven League Championship Series (meaning from 1985 — when the LCS expanded from a best-of-five format to the current best-of-seven — through 2010), if the home team wins Game 1, then that team goes on to win the series 61.5 percent of the time. And in the history of the best-of-seven World Series (the 1903 and 1919-1921 seasons have been omitted because of the best-of-nine format, which is sadly no longer with us), the home team that wins Game 1 takes the entire affair 69 percent of the time.

So, for whatever reason(s), Game 1 outcomes are somewhat less predictive in the LCS than they are in the World Series and, by extension, the postseason as a whole. Why would this be the case? Answering this question is a speculative exercise.

Perhaps familiarity with the opposition and the opposition’s home park contributes to those compressed winning percentages? Perhaps it’s the similar roster construction (NL teams have no need to plan for the DH, and AL teams have no need to plan for batting the pitcher) that plays a role? Perhaps it’s the function of a limited sample size (just 26 series meet the criteria)?

Whatever the elements in play, combine the data pools (i.e., lump together all best-of-seven series) and the home team that wins the opener goes on to win the series 66.7 percent of the time, which is roughly the same percentage for all Game 1 winners. In other words, teams that win the series opener go on to win the whole thing about two-thirds of the time, regardless of whether it is the home or road team. It’s the mere winning of Game 1 that matters greatly, not where that win occurs.

Additionally, the value of winning Game 1 of a series is less in a seven-game series than in one with only five games. But even so, the Brewers and Rangers now have the advantage by jumping out to 1-0 starts, and they have the aforementioned odds in their favor.

Winning Game 1? A very good thing. Winning Game 1 as the home team? That’s irrelevant, as it turns out.

In his ALDS victory over the New York Yankees, Jim Leyland used a different line-up in each game. The mixing and matching worked out when he got key hits from the likes of Ramon Santiago and Don Kelly, but the Tigers also only managed to score 17 runs in the series, and they’ll have to produce more offense against the Rangers if they want a shot at the World Series.

So, we’re here to lend Leyland a hand, and help him come up with a steady line-up that can maximize his team’s offensive output against Texas. He has some good hitters, but the order in which they’re being used could be improved. Given that the Rangers are going to throw left-handers C.J. Wilson, Derek Holland, and Matt Harrison in the series, he’ll also want to focus on getting his best anti-southpaw hitters to the plate as often as possible.

The line-up below might be unconventional, but it would improve the Tigers chances of scoring runs and advancing to the World Series.

#1: Ramon Santiago, 2B, Switch – .305 wOBA

Austin Jackson’s speed has kept him at the top of the order all season, but the reality is that he just doesn’t hit well enough to justify staying there. He struck out in 27 percent of trips to the plate this year, and the Yankees were able to consistently get him out by throwing off-speed pitches out of the zone. Santiago isn’t anyone’s idea of Rickey Henderson, but his better contact rates and performance against southpaws this year win him the top spot in the batting order.

#2: Victor Martinez, DH, Switch – .368 wOBA

Martinez has gotten a lot of credit for making pitchers pay after they intentionally walk Miguel Cabrera, but right now, Cabrera needs someone in front of him who can get on base. He came up with the bases empty far too often in the ALDS, and moving Martinez’s .380 OBP to the second spot in the line-up will give the Tigers star more RBI opportunities. Having two switch-hitters at the top of the line-up will also help keep the line-up stable when the Rangers go to the bullpen.

#3: Delmon Young, LF, Right – .303 wOBA

While most teams give the #3 spot to their best hitter, Leyland has this one right, as Cabrera is more likely to produce runs from the #4 spot in the order. Young’s OBP isn’t what you’d like from a hitter in this spot, but he hit left-handers significantly better than right-handers and has enough power to drive Martinez in on his own from time to time.

#4: Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Right – .436 wOBA

This one’s easy – he’s the beast of the Tigers line-up and belongs in the run producing spot. The rest of the line-up is just there to try and ensure he gets chances to do as much damage as possible.

#5: Jhonny Peralta, SS, Right – .353 wOBA

Peralta wasn’t able to sustain his tremendous first half performance, and he faded a bit down the stretch. However, he’s still one of the Tigers best hitters, and he has enough power to make teams pay for pitching around Cabrera.

#6: Ryan Raburn, RF, Right – .314 wOBA

Magglio Ordonez got most of the playing time in round one, but Raburn is just the better player, especially against a left-handed heavy pitching staff. He hit .274/.321/.486 against southpaws this year, and he was the Tigers second best hitter in the final two months of the season. Compared to Ordonez, he’s also a defensive upgrade in right field.

#7: Alex Avila, C, Left – .383 wOBA

If Avila was healthy, I’d suggest hitting him a lot higher, but his knee problems appeared to be taking a significant strain on him at the plate in the ALDS. His production was a huge part of why the Tigers got to the playoffs in the first place, and if he shows he’s healthy, he should move up to the #5 spot in the order, but the current version of Avila barely resembles the one that the Tigers saw in the regular season.

#8: Austin Jackson, CF, Right – .309 wOBA

While Jackson’s speed may seem wasted at the bottom of the order, this is actually a better spot for his skills. The negative value associated with a caught stealing is dramatically reduced with weaker hitters coming to the plate, so Jackson could run more frequently when he does get on base.

#9: Brandon Inge, 3B, Right – .247 wOBA

Inge had a terrible season by any standard, but most of his struggles came against right-handed pitchers, whom he hit .170/.220/.228 against. He was reasonably effective against left-handers (.245/.339/.378) and has a significant platoon split over the course of his career, so the Tigers should be willing to roll him out there against the Rangers’ southpaws. As soon as the Rangers go to the bullpen, though, Wilson Betemit should be ready to pinch-hit – Inge should never face a right-hander in a close playoff game.