Archive for ESPN Insider 2010

In 2009, the San Diego Padres finished with a 75-87 record, “good” for fourth in the National League West — or exactly 20 games behind the division-winning Los Angeles Dodgers. The Hot Stove League was lukewarm, at best, for the Padres; their biggest offseason splash was a one-year deal for a little more than $5 million for an innings-eating righty (Jon Garland) whose upside was/is as a third starter.

Then, their No. 1 prospect, Kyle Blanks — one of the more interesting parts on a team of otherwise low-ceiling players — strained his elbow in mid-May, has been out of commission since then and is now due for Tommy John surgery.

That’s a recipe for success, eh?

Apparently it is — the Padres are leading the NL West (although the San Francisco Giants are hanging right around the front now), and they have an 80 percent chance to make October ball.

So, can they keep this up?

The best way to look at what the Padres have remaining is to view it through the context of how they turned the ship around this year.

1. Excellent fielding
After finishing 2009 at 8.7 runs below average (per Ultimate Zone Rating) in the field, the Padres stand at a league-leading 44.5 runs above average — a swing of about 50 runs, or five wins. A number of caveats apply here, as fielding metrics are still in their infant stages and require a rather large sample to become reliable, but a couple of commonsense examples stand out.

Most notable among these is the departure of Brian Giles from right field. Although something like a league-average right fielder in his younger days, the late-30s version of Giles was a poor fit for Petco’s cavernous right field. His UZR of minus-8.3 there last year — in limited playing time, no less — supports the visual evidence. This year, however, right field has been occupied by three younger, more athletic players: Will Venable (570 innings, plus-3.5 UZR), Aaron Cunningham (124, plus-2.1), and Chris Denorfia (115, plus-1.7). Nor does the recent addition of Ryan Ludwick represent any kind of setback: The right fielder’s plus-7.9 career UZR/150 (that is, fielding runs above average per 150 games) suggests he’ll continue to pick up the slack left behind by Giles.

2. An even better bullpen
If former GM Kevin Towers was known for one thing, it was his ability to construct a bullpen from almost nothing. That skill was certainly on display last season, as Heath Bell ($1.26 million), Mike Adams ($415K) and Luke Gregerson ($400K) combined to form as fearsome a bullpen threesome as existed in the league.

This year, the Padres’ bullpen is even better. Bell, Adams and Gregerson are performing roughly the same as last year and — with the exception of Bell’s $2.75 milion raise — for roughly the same money. Additionally, innings that were given to the likes of Luis Perdomo [60 IP, 5.35 FIP (fielding-independent pitching)] and Greg Burke (45.2, 4.37) have been picked up by Ryan Webb (44.1, 3.02), Tim Stauffer (35.2, 2.77), and — more recently — Ernesto Frieri, who has a 19-to-3 K/BB ratio in 10.1 innings.

3. A league-average offense
It’s not exactly sexy, but relative to where their offense was last year (at approximately 30 runs below average), the Padres will take league-average run production.

Because of their home park, the Padres’ offensive stats will always look worse than they are. Even accounting for that, however, there’s little good one could say about Giles’ 2009 triple-slash (AVG/OBP/SLG) line of .191/.277/.271 in 254 PA or catcher Eliezer Alfonso’s .175/.197/.254 in 117 PA.

Padres right fielders batted .225/.288/.366 last year, but that same group has batted .254/.323/.439. And where Padres catchers — mostly Nick Hundley, Henry Blanco and the aforementioned Alfonzo — posted a line of .225/.291/.367 in 2009, that number, under the watch of Yorvit Torrealba and Hundley, has improved to .277/.347/.392.

Improvements in these three areas alone (fielding, bullpen and offensive improvement) represent about an 11-win improvement already over last year’s team — and that’s with 50 games remaining.

OK, so — can this be kept up through the first weekend of October?

There are three things to consider:

1. Base Runs standings
Yes, it sounds nerdy, but don’t be too scared: Base Runs is just a way of estimating how many runs a team should have scored (or allowed) given the events (hits, walks, home runs, etc.) that have occurred in their games. Using these estimated runs scored (and allowed) totals, we can project the amount of wins and losses a team is likely to have in the future.

If we do this for the Padres and Giants, we get projected winning percentages of .544 and .528, respectively. In other words, it’s not luck that the Pads are in first place; they’re justifiably there. (Note: The Rockies have a Base Runs winning percentage of .576, suggesting that they’ve actually been the best in the West. Unfortunately for them, with only 50 games remaining, their chances of closing the gap are low.)

Therefore, if we go merely on Base Runs, we’d say that the Padres look like division winners over the Giants by about three wins (93-69 versus 90-72).

2. Rest of season schedule
Per Base Runs standings, San Diego actually has a slightly easier schedule than the Giants for the rest of the season. Padres opponents have a weighted Base Runs winning percentage of .511, Giants opponents, .512. This also bodes well for San Diego’s chances — or, at least doesn’t hurt them.

3. The “true talent” question
One possible cause for concern in the Padres is that much of their improvement to date — about five wins of it — has been based off of runs saved in the field. As noted above, it’s hard to get any sort of solid grasp on a team’s level of true fielding talent over the course of just one season. In this case, the Padres are no exception. Yes, we can guess that — barring a snap decision to re-sign Giles and install him in center field — they’ll continue to be better than last year. What we don’t know is whether they’ll continue to be this good, league-leading good.

Really, this will be the important question for the Padres: Can they continue to flash the leather as they have to date? If the answer is yes, playoff baseball awaits them. If the answer is no, the Giants might have the talent (and/or luck) to close San Diego’s slim divisional lead.

Going into the season, the Texas Rangers were in turmoil. The team’s owner was bankrupt, the slow roll towards an auction was set in motion and adding salary did not seem to be an option. Most preseason indicators had the Los Angeles Angels winning the AL West — six division titles in a row will earn you some respect.

Perhaps everyone should have noticed what a nice, young core the Rangers had put together — Elvis Andrus, Nelson Cruz, Ian Kinsler, Derek Holland and Neftali Feliz, among others.

Now, those same turmoil-laden Rangers have better than a 90 percent chance to make the playoffs.

Seems the only question left is: Can this be sustained?

Though the Rangers’ rotation had given up the fourth-fewest runs in 2009, there was a sense they couldn’t repeat that success. The 2009 starters were third-worst in the American League in both FIP (4.71) and strikeouts per nine (5.67). There were areas of concern among the individual pitchers: Scott Feldman hasn’t struck out five batters per nine innings for his career (the major league average has been close to seven recently), Rich Harden hasn’t stayed healthy his entire career, C.J. Wilson was coming out of the bullpen, Colby Lewis was coming from Japan — and the fifth spot was a crapshoot.

In 2010, the strikeouts are up (6.84 per nine), and the recent addition of Cliff Lee seems to have added an ace to a generally competent group of starters.

Wilson and Lewis in particular have stepped up to provide stability and a strong core. With five legitimate pitches, perhaps Wilson was always suited to starting. His velocity and strikeout rate have dipped in the move from the pen to the rotation, but his groundball rate is superb. Lewis discovered his control and his slider in Japan, and on the backs of those two developments has evolved into a strong No. 2 for the Rangers.

It’s still offense that drives this Rangers team. Their batters feature the league’s fifth-best wOBA and have scored the fourth-most runs in the American League. Beyond the streaking young position players mentioned previously, Vladimir Guerrero found the fountain of youth, Josh Hamilton recovered from his injuries and Michael Young is showing the second-best isolated power of his career.

Of their regulars, only Andrus, Julio Borbon and Jorge Cantu are below average offensively. Two of those guys play premium defensive positions well, which has kept their overall value in the positive all year. It’s a balanced team.

Their schedule is pretty favorable too: They’re 10-3 against the Seattle Mariners this year and have six left against them, while their final 43 games are against teams with an average winning percentage of .484.

In comparison, the Angels have a tough road to climb. If the Rangers slumped and played a game under .500 baseball from here on out (25-26), the Angels would have to go 33-18, or a .647 winning percentage. Not only is that a 105-win pace, but the Angels’ opponents from here on out will also feature an average record of .498.

Rest-of-schedule particularities aside, the Rangers have scored 33 more runs than the Angels and given up 83 fewer. They have a significant lead in wOBA (.334 to .317, where .324 is average) and are neck-and-neck in FIP (4.24 to 4.23, where 4.14 is average). They own an eight-game lead, just acquired a veteran ace and all the depth they need, and have 25 games left at home, where they play at a .631 pace.

Yeah, these guys look like a lock.

The Boston Red Sox won their first game of the season 9-7 against the New York Yankees. As a result, their 1-0 record had them in first place in the American League East. They haven’t been in first place since.

They’ve been close — they were a half-game off the pace as recently as July 3 — but right now they are six games behind the Yankees and also looking up at the Tampa Bay Rays.

The latest playoff odds have them with a 23 percent chance of playing meaningful games in October.

So — can they get back into this race, even with all the injuries they’ve suffered?

There is still a remote chance that a team in the AL Central or West could capture the wild-card berth into the playoffs. Realistically though, it will come down to Boston, New York and Tampa to decide the AL East crown and wild-card winner.

The problem is, Boston is in the most perilous position of the division’s three top teams. It’s a position made all the tougher with the recent news that Kevin Youkilis will miss the remainder of the season after having surgery on his injured thumb.

The Red Sox entered the season with a different approach from previous years. Highlighted by the departure of Jason Bay, the front office made several moves designed to maximize the defensive assets of the club, which drew some criticism; the belief was that if you have money, why spend it on defense?

Playoffs or not, hopefully the success of the Red Sox and the San Diego Padres outweigh the failure of the Seattle Mariners and help put to rest the stereotype that teams must build through offense. Ironically, though, Boston’s offense has been really good this year, highlighted by turnaround campaigns from David Ortiz and Adrian Beltre (Beltre smacked a grand slam just last night). Youkilis’ second straight .300/.410/.550 campaign certainly helped, as well. In fact, according to park-adjusted wOBA, the Red Sox have had baseball’s best offense, although that will likely change with Youkilis out.

The defense, as advertised, has been solid.

The problem in Beantown has been that the pitching, which should be elite, has been merely above average. Josh Beckett has faced injury problems and general ineffectiveness while John Lackey has been far less than the Red Sox paid for. Daisuke Matsuzaka continues to post his frustratingly high walk totals and pitch at his agonizingly slow pace. If it weren’t for Jon Lester’s great season and Clay Buchholz slashing his home run rate enough to soak up innings, the Boston rotation would be a problem.

As it stands, the starters have been adequate while the bullpen has let them down with one of baseball’s worst FIPs. Make no mistake about Daniel Bard, who is proving that his 2009 was no fluke. While Bard appears ready to assume the closer’s role, the rest of the unit has slid backward. Jonathan Papelbon looks even more on his way out with a decidedly average season. His strikeout rate has dropped five points and his home runs (six allowed) already exceed his 2009 total (five).

Manny Delcarmen, who seemed so promising just two years ago, has lost all ability to record strikeouts and has just 25 this season compared to 22 walks. Hideki Okajima has gone from striking out a quarter of all the hitters he faced in 2007 and 2008 to striking out just 16 percent this year. When you’re the Red Sox and your second-best relief pitcher has been Scott Atchison (no offense to Scott), something has gone wrong.

Not all is lost, though. One thing the Sox have going for them is simple: They play their divisional superiors a lot more this season — including six games against the Rays and 10 against the Yankees, starting tonight. They have the ability to take games from the teams above them.

That might be a tall order, though: Boston is sub-.500 against both teams this season (4-8 versus the Rays, 3-5 versus the Yankees).

What has to worry Boston is how 2011 looks. Obviously the Yankees are not going anywhere, and while the Rays seem destined to lose Carl Crawford there remains a figurative battalion of young prospects behind him ready to contribute. The Red Sox are not going to be able to count on another fluke season from Beltre, either. He’s nearly certain to decline his player option given the performance he’s put up. Ortiz is a free agent as well and Papelbon heads to his final arbitration year. Boston allocated a team-record $168 million in payroll in 2010 and has more than $100 million already guaranteed for next season while several significant holes remain.

The July 31 trade deadline creates a good deal of buzz and excitement — and grades — but it’s a bit of a false premise.

Although trades become harder to make after July 31 passes, deals do get made in August; teams find trading partners after putting their players on waivers. Given the reluctance of many teams to take on additional payroll, we likely will see even more trades this month than usual — any player with a decent-sized paycheck likely will clear waivers and be eligible for a postdeadline trade.

Some of the big names floating out there right now have included Manny Ramirez and Adam Dunn.

Throughout the years, some interesting deals have been made after July 31. Although some clubs have found bargains with late acquisitions, others have been stuck with ridiculous contracts they never should have taken in the first place.

Here are the best — and worst — August deals of recent vintage.

2009: Cleveland Indians trade Carl Pavano to the Minnesota Twins for Yohan Pino
Teams were scared off by Pavano’s high ERA in Cleveland, but that was more a function of his teammates’ defensive abilities than his own poor pitching. His move to Minnesota proved a boon for the Twins and for Pavano, and he has even continued to pay dividends this season after accepting the Twins’ arbitration offer this past winter.

2009: Tampa Bay Rays trade Scott Kazmir to Los Angeles Angels for Sean Rodriguez, Alex Torres and Matt Sweeney
This one was regrettable. The Angels inherited the remainder of Kazmir’s bloated salary hoping that he would find his previous velocity — but he’s been downright terrible since joining the team. In addition to paying him $8 million this year, the Angels are on the hook for $12 million in salary next season plus a $2.5 million buyout of his 2012 option after the season ends. All told, they’ll end up paying more than $25 million for Kazmir, who has pitched about as well as a random Triple-A arm.

2004: Colorado Rockies trade Larry Walker to the St. Louis Cardinals for Jason Burch, Luis Martinez and Chris Narveson
The Cardinals needed an outfielder for the stretch run, and the Rockies were willing to move 37-year-old Walker to get out from under the final year of his contract — even though he was still one of their best players at the time. Walker proved he could hit outside Coors Field, more than justifying his salary, and helped push St. Louis into the World Series in 2004. None of the three players Colorado acquired panned out.

1998: Toronto Blue Jays trade Randy Myers to the San Diego Padres for Brian Loyd
Myers, a formerly dominant reliever who was battling injury problems, was given to the Padres because of his inflated salary — a total of more than $13.5 million due in 1999 and 2000. Myers would pitch just 14 innings for San Diego after the deal, posting a 6.28 ERA, then spend the next two seasons attempting to get healthy on the Padres’ dime. He would never pitch in baseball again, and San Diego ended up paying Myers more than $1 million per inning they received from the one-time Nasty Boy.

1990: Houston Astros trade Larry Andersen to the Boston Red Sox for Jeff Bagwell
This trade lives on in infamy as a caution against trading prospects for rental players, but it should be noted that Andersen was tremendous for the Red Sox in the final month of the season. He threw 22 innings and allowed just three runs down the stretch, and Boston held on to win the American League East title, edging the Blue Jays by just two games. Still, I’d guess that Boston wouldn’t have made that deal had it known what Bagwell would become.

1987: Atlanta Braves trade Doyle Alexander to the Detroit Tigers for John Smoltz
As with the Bagwell-Andersen trade, history does not remember this one fondly for Detroit, but Alexander was unbelievably good for the Tigers down the stretch. In 11 starts, he threw an amazing 88.1 innings with just a 1.53 ERA and pitched his new team into the playoffs. However, the Tigers were eliminated by Kirby Puckett and the Twins in the American League Championship Series and Smoltz went on to have a great career for the Braves, so this deal is remembered as a disaster for the Tigers.

The 2010 MLB trade deadline has been one of the more interesting ones in recent memory. Teams engaged in a flurry of activity, making deals major and minor. Money changed hands in a number of deals, with the sellers helping pay the salaries of veterans under long-term contracts. It also seemed like every serious contender added a piece or two to help make their late-season runs. Here are some of the more significant deals that happened in July.

Rangers acquire Cliff Lee and Cristian Guzman

The Rangers made the biggest splash of the season a few weeks ago when they acquired Cliff Lee from the Seattle Mariners in exchange for Justin Smoak. While that does open up a hole at first base that Chris Davis, their Opening Day first baseman, must fill, it also helps bolster the rotation, placing it among the strongest units in the American League. The move has all but guaranteed their place atop the AL West.

The Lee move also not only helps them upgrade their rotation, but it provides insurance in case a few other pitchers don’t work out. C.J. Wilson has had an excellent year in the rotation but hasn’t pitched this many innings since 2003. If he fades down the stretch, the Rangers can still lean on Lee. Same with Tommy Hunter, who has been pitching better than his peripherals would indicate (3.31 ERA, 4.77 FIP). If anything happens to them, Lee still gives the Rangers a good chance.

Phillies acquire Roy Oswalt

Two preseason contenders, the Phillies and the Red Sox, have sustained injuries to key players this year. The difference between the two is that the Phillies are still very much in the hunt. They solidified their position by trading for Oswalt just before the deadline, leaving them with perhaps the best top three starting pitchers in the National League. Oswalt, along with Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels, will help keep opponents off the board. The only thing missing now is the offense.

What makes this deal even more important for the Phillies is what it means when they get back some of those injured players. If rookie Domonic Brown can hit well and stick they’ll have a superb outfield upon Shane Victorino’s return. Then, later in August they’ll bolster their infield corps by replacing the light-hitting Wilson Valdez with Chase Utley. With an offense at full strength and a greatly improved pitching staff the Phillies might not only make a run at the NL wild card. They should challenge the Braves for the East.

Angels acquire Dan Haren

A week before the trade deadline it looked like the Diamondbacks were going to trade Dan Haren to the Yankees for a package centered on Joba Chamberlain. Instead they surprised everyone a few days later by trading him to the Angels for Joe Saunders and prospects. The Angels got an instant upgrade in the rotation not only in 2010, but also for the next two years that Haren is under contract.

The problem, as stated above, is that the Rangers have jumped out to a big lead in the West. With the Yankees and the Rays both having more than 60 wins by the deadline, the AL wild card looks unattainable at this point, too. The Angels had an outside chance of fighting their way back into it, but that all but evaporated when they learned that Joel Pineiro will miss significant time with an oblique injury. They couldn’t know that at the time, so the deal is still a win — but more so because of what it means for the 2011 Angels.

Yankees acquire Lance Berkman, Austin Kearns and Kerry Wood

The Yankees benefit from their financial might, but that didn’t appear to come into play. Both Berkman and Wood have a significant amount of money left on their deals for this year, but the Astros and Indians sent the majority of that to the Yankees. The Yankees picked up all three for two prospects not in their top 10, two players to be named later and minimal salary relief.

In Berkman the Yankees get a designated hitter to replace the injured Nick Johnson. His season numbers don’t look very Berkman-like, but that could be the lingering effects of the knee surgery he had this spring. Berkman is now four months removed from the procedure, and his OPS has increased in each month since his return.

While Kearns and Wood are smaller deals, both serve their purposes. Kearns gives the Yankees a fourth outfielder who can play the field and provide some value at the plate. Wood is a pure gamble. He just came off the disabled list and has a storied injury history, but if he can remain healthy and pitch out of the bullpen like he did in 2008 the Yankees will be a very happy team in October.

Dodgers acquire Ted Lilly, Ryan Theriot and Octavio Dotel

At the start of the day on July 31 the Dodgers sat in third place, seven games back in the NL West and 4½ games back in the wild-card standings. They faced an uphill climb for the season’s final two months, but made their lives a bit better by adding a starting pitcher, a second baseman and a late-innings reliever. All three could help them back into the wild-card race.

Lilly has been unspectacular this season, but a move to Dodger Stadium could give him a boost. His biggest problem has been his home run rate, which is always an issue for fly ball pitchers. If his new park helps tone that down he’ll be a bit better the rest of the way. With Theriot it appears the Dodgers are betting on a recovery, since he has a lower weighted on-base average (wOBA) than the man the Dodgers traded for him, Blake DeWitt. Dotel gives Joe Torre one more option when choosing a setup man for Jonathan Broxton.

Still, considering the Phillies’ moves it looks like an even tougher battle for the Dodgers, even with these acquisitions.

Cardinals acquire Jake Westbrook

The Cardinals had two needs heading into the deadline: a bat and a starting pitcher. They filled the latter by trading for Jake Westbrook. After missing all of 2009 while recovering from Tommy John surgery, Westbrook has been unimpressive in his return effort, posting a 4.65 ERA with a 4.67 FIP to match. He should benefit from a move to the NL, and he seems like a natural fit with Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan. Westbrook is a sinkerballer, Duncan’s specialty, so a complete turnaround wouldn’t come as a shock.

The problem for the Cardinals is that instead of adding a bat they subtracted one.

Padres acquire Ryan Ludwick

Pitching is not a problem for the Padres. They might not have it in abundance, to the point where they could trade pitching for hitting, but they have enough to make them one of the stronger forces in the NL. Instead, they could use a boost on offense. They got that by sending two pitching prospects, the better to the Indians and the lesser to the Cardinals, for Ludwick.

Ludwick, who has a .358 wOBA for the season, gives the Padres another power threat to go with Adrian Gonzalez. He also plays very good defense, with a three-year UZR/150 of 4.7, which ranks fifth among MLB right fielders during that span. The Padres appear improved on offense and defense with this move, which should help them keep their spot atop the NL West.

White Sox acquire Edwin Jackson

Rumors were everywhere late last week that the Nationals coveted Edwin Jackson, and that any team interested in Adam Dunn would do well to acquire him as a possible trading chip. The White Sox, connected to Dunn for most of July, put together a package for Jackson that centered on rookie Daniel Hudson. But once the White Sox acquired Jackson, they found out that the Nationals were less interested in moving Dunn than previously thought.

Jackson does help the White Sox, in that he’s a veteran arm that gives them another useful starter. This is especially helpful with Jake Peavy’s absence. Jackson’s ERA is inflated due to a few poor starts early in the season, but his FIP sits at exactly where it was last year, 4.28, which is considerably lower than where it had been in the past. He might see his home run rate spike a bit with a move to the AL and Chicago’s hitter-friendly ballpark, but he provides a bit more reliability than Hudson.

Twins acquire Matt Capps

Could the Twins have used catching prospect Wilson Ramos to acquire a better player than Capps? That has been a debate among fans and analysts for the past few days. For his part, Ramos was having a poor year and is blocked by Joe Mauer, so he doesn’t provide much value to the Twins. Capps, however, does. He strengthens an already strong Twins relief corps, allowing them to slide Jon Rauch, who was effective as the closer, into a setup role. The Twins could have used a starter, but adding Capps was still a positive as a lone move.

As the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline approaches, general managers are busy working the phones for a deal that improves the current roster or lands intriguing, cost-controlled prospects who may play a prominent role in the years to come.

Baseball’s trade deadline history includes both the lopsided swap — such as the 1997 deal in which the Seattle Mariners sent Derek Lowe and Jason Varitek to the Boston Red Sox for Heathcliff Slocumb — and the win-win trades, like the 2008 CC Sabathia blockbuster that netted the Milwaukee Brewers an ace for a playoff run (plus two free agent compensation draft picks) and gave the Cleveland Indians two potential starting position players in Michael Brantley and Matt LaPorta.

Getty Images
Danny Tartabull’s deal in 1995 was ultimately lose-lose.
Not every transaction this time of year makes an impact, though — some trades provide both teams with a whole lot of nada.

Today, we’ll focus on five of the biggest lose-lose trades made in June and July over the past 25 years, as measured by wins above replacement. All WAR values given for major leaguers are rest-of-contract numbers — we’re interested in the value of the service time teams acquired in a trade, not what they subsequently paid to retain a player by bidding on his services on the free-agent market. For prospects and young major leaguers, the value is the WAR contributed during their inexpensive, team-controlled seasons before they hit free agency. By looking at the production teams received (or in this case, didn’t), we can get a feel for which deals gave general managers headaches and huge phone bills, but little on-field value. Despite winning five World Series in the past quarter-century, the Yankees still crack this list three times.

1. 2006: The Los Angeles Dodgers traded Joel Guzman and Sergio Pedroza to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays for Julio Lugo.
WAR received: minus-0.7
WAR forfeited: minus-0.2
Lugo averaged 3.5 wins per year from 2003-2005, and he was off to a great start with the Tampa Bay Rays in 2006 with a .383 wOBA and 2.5 WAR. But his bat didn’t make the cross-country trip to L.A., as Lugo posted a .240 wOBA while seeing time at second base, third base and the outfield corners. Guzman was ranked as the No. 26 prospect in the game by Baseball America prior to 2006, but he flamed out by moving down the defensive spectrum and displaying wretched plate discipline. While Pedroza hit well as an old player in the low minors, he tanked at Double-A.

2. 1995: The New York Yankees traded Danny Tartabull to the Oakland Athletics for Jason Beverlin and Ruben Sierra.
WAR received: minus-0.6
WAR forfeited: zero
“The Bull” inked a lucrative free-agent deal with the Bombers before the 1992 season, and the outfielder remained highly productive through ’93. But his bat no longer compensated for his lumbering defense after that (thanks for the swing tips, George Costanza). Plus, he had a very public spat with the late Yankees owner George Steinbrenner in 1995 after the team refused to put Tartabull on the DL with a rib injury. The Bull aggravated that rib ailment just a few games into his Oakland Athletics career, which would last all of 98 plate appearances. Sierra, meanwhile, turned in fantastic 1989 and 1991 seasons with the Texas Rangers, but his career flatlined in Oakland and he fared poorly in New York. The Yankees used him as part of a 1996 trade with the Detroit Tigers for Cecil Fielder.

What Will Happen?
Follow along with all the potential moves at MLB Rumor Central.

3. 1987: The Houston Astros traded Mel Stottlemyre Jr. to the Kansas City Royals for Buddy Biancalana.
WAR received: minus-0.6
WAR forfeited: plus-0.1
The son of Mel Sr. and brother of Todd Stottlemyre, Mel Jr. is the new pitching coach for the Arizona Diamondbacks. But before that, he was the third overall pick in the January phase of the 1985 draft. Mel Stottlemyre Jr.’s major league career would last all of 31.1 innings, logged in 1990. Roland Americo “Buddy” Biancalana, a middle infielder taken 25th overall in the 1978 June draft, has an awesome name. But alas, he barely stayed above the Mendoza Line as a big league reserve from 1982 to 1987.

4. 2008: The New York Yankees traded Kyle Farnsworth to the Detroit Tigers for Ivan Rodriguez.
WAR received: minus-0.1
WAR forfeited: minus-0.1
The Yankees figured they had killed two birds with one stone by getting rid of chronic underachiever Farnsworth and bringing in Pudge to fill in for Jorge Posada, who was out for the rest of the season with a shoulder injury. Unfortunately, Rodriguez posted a .263 wOBA that made Jose Molina puff out his chest in pride. Farnsworth’s second stint with the Tigers didn’t go very well — he had a 5.07 FIP in 16 innings pitched. And he didn’t even body slam anybody this time. Bummer.

5. 2000: The Cincinnati Reds traded Denny Neagle and Mike Frank to the New York Yankees for Drew Henson, Jackson Melian, Brian Reith and Ed Yarnall.
WAR received: minus-1.4
WAR forfeited: plus-0.9
Before he got stacks-o-cash from the Colorado Rockies in free agency, Neagle compiled a 5.23 FIP for the Yankees. The Reds had to feel good about the return for trading the lefty — third baseman Henson ranked as Baseball America’s 24th-best prospect in the minors prior to 2000, and outfielder Melian ranked No. 72. Yet, Henson’s baseball career crumpled. The former star QB at Michigan was traded back to New York the following year for fellow enigma Wily Mo Pena, and Henson eventually quit the sport entirely to pursue a career in the NFL. That didn’t go so well either, and he’s currently retired. Neither Melian nor Yarnall ever reached the majors with Cincinnati, and the Reds probably wish Reith (minus-1.4 WAR) hadn’t either.

Visions of pennant-clinching trade acquisitions and blue chip prospects dance through the heads of fans and GMs alike as the deadline nears. Sometimes, however, reality bites.

Andre Dawson’s election to the Hall of Fame this weekend is being celebrated by many different groups: fans of the dearly departed Montreal Expos who witnessed Dawson at his peak, fans of the Chicago Cubs who enjoyed his somewhat-dubious 1987 MVP performance and many others who admired Dawson as much for his character as for his baseball ability.

One group should be added to this list: analysts eager for a “baseline” Hall of Famer, a player about whom one could say, “If this guy is in, any player whose career has been as good or better should be in.”

Using Dawson as the baseline, what currently active outfielders are currently deserving of enshrinement in Cooperstown?

Dawson makes a good baseline because, while there was hardly a consensus that he should be in the Hall, few felt his election was a travesty. If you compare Dawson’s career Wins Above Replacement (WAR) with other consensus Hall of Famers, he comes off as in the same league. Rather than relying on arbitrary milestones such as numbers of hits, home runs or runs batted it, WAR measures a player’s offensive, positional and playing time contributions relative to the leagues in which the player played.

Dawson’s career WAR, according to FanGraphs, included being 246 runs above average offensively and 69 runs above average in the field. After adding in his playing time contributions and position, it all comes to 62.3 WAR.

But we don’t want “mere accumulators” getting into the Hall, we want someone with at least several years of greatness. To clarify: something like a 2.0 WAR season is league average. While Dawson had a number of average-ish seasons, he also had four or five above-average, 3.0-4.0 WAR seasons (including his 1987 MVP season), but most importantly, he had a tremendous four-year peak in Montreal from 1980 to 1983; in those four years his WAR value never dropped below 6.1. By setting out his career seasonal WAR on a line graph moving from his best to worst seasons, we can generate a “visual baseline” against which to compare others (you can view the graph in a new window here):

Some currently active outfielders with career WAR metrics around Dawson’s are Manny Ramirez (72.1 career WAR), Andruw Jones (69.0), Jim Edmonds (67.1), Vladimir Guerrero (61.5) and Bobby Abreu (60.0).

Here’s a chart comparing Ramirez and Dawson (you can view it in a new window here):

Whereas Dawson neatly balanced offense and defense, Ramirez’s reputation as a bad fielder is reflected by TotalZone and UZR’s evaluation of him at 154 runs below average. However, Ramirez has been an absolute monster with the bat, at nearly 700 runs above average. As the graph shows, while Dawson’s peak was slightly better than Ramirez’s, the bulk of Manny’s career was superior. Whatever the voters make of Manny’s personal reputation, the numbers taken by themselves (including 554 home runs and counting) peg him as a Hall of Famer.

The chart comparing Dawson and Andruw Jones can be seen here (new window):

Jones has more career WAR than Dawson, but also embodies two minefields for players facing traditional voters. First, while Jones was a very good hitter in his prime, the bulk of his value comes from his defensive exploits, which, according to TotalZone and UZR, rank him as the best defensive outfielder of all time by far.

Everyone agreed that Jones was defensively great at his peak, but will they buy into defensive metrics enough to think he was that good? Second, while Jones was an absolute monster for seven or eight seasons, his sudden collapse in 2008 highlights the “peak versus overall career” issue. Still, if Dawson is a Hall of Famer, Jones’ 11 best seasons were all more valuable than Dawson’s 11 best, and he’s one of the best defensive center fielders of all time, if not the best — should he be kept out of the Hall for not tacking on two or three more mediocre seasons at the end?

Now the chart for Dawson versus Edmonds (new window):

Jim Edmonds is currently enjoying a surprisingly successful age-40 revival with the Milwaukee Brewers. This is perhaps not completely surprising, as his best seasons according to WAR were in his 30s — unlike most players, who peak during their mid- to late-20s. Like Jones, Edmonds’ down years were not as good as Dawson’s, but his peak was slightly better and lasted longer.

Here’s the chart comparing Dawson to the currently revived Vlad (new window):

While Vlad was a decent enough fielder in his prime, most of his value comes from his bat, which seemed to make hard contact with everything inside (and outside) of the strike zone. Guerrero’s relative lack of postseason experience and gaudy counting numbers might hurt him with the voters, but his best seasons are equal to Dawson’s, and his peak lasted longer.

Here’s the chart comparing Dawson to Abreu (new window):

Bobby Abreu has spent most of his career being underrated. While he has hit 30 or more home runs only twice, he has tremendous plate discipline (.401 career OBP). Having a long career that peaked in his mid-20s perhaps also made it seem like he was constantly in decline, particularly given the way that his defense collapsed in latter years. It would be quite surprising if Abreu was voted into the Hall, yet his overall career WAR is essentially the same as Dawson’s, and his peak was just as impressive and lasted three seasons longer.

The players above are older players near the end of their careers. What about guys who are younger now and their chance of reaching this “Dawson line?”

Here’s a chart that looks at Dawson in comparison to Matt Holliday, Ryan Braun and Carl Crawford (you can view it in a new window here):

Ryan Braun is only 26, and his 2008 and 2009 seasons at the plate were better than any single offensive season of Dawson’s. Yet his best overall season (2009) barely reached 5.0 WAR — impressive, but not Hall of Fame quality. Given his dreadful chops in the outfield, he’s probably going to have to hit like Manny to reach Dawson’s overall standard. Carl Crawford (28) contributes in every phase of the game, and gets plenty of attention because of his steals. Still, Dawson has four seasons better than Crawford’s best. Matt Holliday’s 2007 season ranks with Dawson’s best, but while he has several other excellent seasons on his résumé, none of them match Dawson’s peak, and Holliday is already 30. While Braun and Crawford are younger than Holliday, it’s worth noting even from the players listed above that it is very rare for a great player to have his best seasons in his 30s (as Edmonds did).

This isn’t to say it’s unforeseeable that Crawford, Braun or Holliday might have new levels of greatness awaiting them — just that it is highly unlikely. Nor is it to deny that these are three of the best outfielders currently active in the major leagues. They have so far fallen short of what is typically necessary to reach the Hall of Fame standard set by Dawson’s “baseline” career; this should simply help us appreciate the gap between “very good” and “all-time great.”

This is the time of year when general managers are constantly conversing with other GMs and reassuring fans that they’re looking for the “right deal” or a “win-win situation.” The elusive goal is a deal that works for both sides, but that’s obviously easier said than done.

So let’s take a look at some notable trade-deadline deals in baseball history and separate the talk from the truth. John Smoltz for Doyle Alexander and Jeff Bagwell for Larry Anderson were both stinkers and are often cited as some of baseball’s worst, but both were completed in August and were waiver deals. Because of the rules of waiver trades, any team in baseball could have blocked them. In other words, all 28 teams not present in those swaps are somewhat at fault for letting those trades go through.

Instead, we’ll be focusing on deals in June and July — true deadline deals. Using the wins above replacement (WAR) that each team gave up, we can quickly appraise some of the most lopsided deals of the past 25 years. In this context, all WAR values are rest-of-contract numbers. When Mark McGwire was traded to the St. Louis Cardinals in 1997, he had only two months of his contract left. Let’s not burn the Oakland Athletics for those 70 home runs in 1998. For prospects, the value is the WAR accumulated during their cheap, arbitration-controlled years.

Now, on to the trades.

1. The Montreal Expos traded Cliff Lee, Brandon Phillips, Grady Sizemore and Lee Stevens to the Cleveland Indians for Bartolo Colon and Tim Drew in 2002.

WAR received: 2.4
WAR forfeited: 55.8

This is the most classic blunder, and the worst blemish on Omar Minaya’s résumé. It’s not that Colon didn’t help — he accrued 10 wins and 2.3 WAR over the second half of the season. It’s just that the Atlanta Braves were too good that year, and the Expos finished 18½ games back in the division. And look at the prospects Montreal gave up in the deal: Phillips didn’t quite blossom in Cleveland, but he was still arbitration-controlled when he broke out with the Cincinnati Reds; Sizemore and Lee combined to put up 49 WAR before they signed free-agent contracts (Andy Pettitte’s career WAR is around 49, just for reference). At first, it might have seemed like a win-win deal, but Cleveland ultimately snatched a much larger share of the success.

2. The Seattle Mariners traded Derek Lowe and Jason Varitek to the Boston Red Sox for Heathcliff Slocumb in 1997.

WAR received: 0.6
WAR forfeited: 40.4

Close behind Minaya’s blunder was the straight-up robbery performed by the Red Sox in 1997 when they turned their passable closer, Heathcliff Slocumb, into two franchise cornerstones in Varitek and Lowe. The duo gave the Red Sox great production at key positions before their arbitration years ran out. Considering that Slocumb gave the Mariners only 0.6 WAR the rest of that season, this move qualifies as one of the worst trade-deadline deals of all time, and a warning about the limits of what one should give up for a reliever.

3. The Boston Red Sox traded Brady Anderson and Curt Schilling to the Baltimore Orioles for Mike Boddicker in 1988.

WAR received: 10.8
WAR forfeited: 43.3

The Red Sox were on the other side of the deal, but it was hardly as poor of a swap as the Mariners’ disaster. Boddicker was actually a decent starting pitcher — he even won 17 games for them in 1990. Of course, Anderson accumulated 28.6 WAR (of his 36.2 career WAR) during his arbitration-controlled years in Baltimore. Had Schilling put together more than 0.3 WAR in Baltimore (he was traded to Philadelphia and had 14.4 WAR before signing his first free-agent contract there), this deal would be more widely remembered as a stinker.

4. The Arizona Diamondbacks traded Abraham Nunez, Vladimir Nunez and Brad Penny to the Florida Marlins for Matt Mantei in 1999.

WAR received: 2.7
WAR forfeited: 12.6

As proven time and again, teams most easily get burned when they give up starting pitching prospects, especially when they only get a reliever in return. Mantei was actually a decent closer for the Diamondbacks for a couple of years, and none of the other prospects Arizona gave up did Florida any good, but Penny alone was worth the deal. New York Mets fans might have expected to see the infamous trade of Scott Kazmir (15.6 RoC WAR) for Victor Zambrano (4 RoC WAR) here, but this one was far worse because Mantei was just a reliever.

5. The New York Yankees traded Rich Balabon, Troy Evers and Jay Buhner to the Seattle Mariners for Ken Phelps in 1988.

WAR received: 1.1
WAR forfeited: 12.6

Yankees fans, particularly Frank Costanza, will remember Buhner as one who got away. Phelps put up 17 home runs and a sub-.250 batting average in less than a full year at DH before moving on. The position player equivalent of not trading starting pitching prospects for relievers is not trading position player prospects for designated hitters.

It’s easy to forget the trades that work out for the buyers, but they are not rare. Take the Cliff Lee trade in 2009. Lee gave the Phillies an invaluable 2.4 WAR (and an NL championship) last season, and is still providing value on that contract, albeit for his fourth team in two years. The book isn’t closed on the prospects the Phillies gave up, but so far they have only provided 0.3 WAR of value to the Indians. They have some arbitration-controlled years left, but Carlos Carrasco, Lou Marson and Jason Donald all seem like bit parts right now.

Perhaps the biggest lesson we can learn from all of this is not to give up decent prospects for relievers and designated hitters. That shouldn’t be too hard for the GMs to remember.

Before this season, which team would you have said had the best infield in the National League? Likely answer for most baseball fans: the Philadelphia Phillies. Their infield has two former NL MVP winners in Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard; you also could make the case that Chase Utley probably could have won that award once or twice. On top of that, Placido Polanco was replacing the light-hitting Pedro Feliz at third base.

As expected, Philadelphia’s infield has been solid, posting 8.7 wins above replacement to date this season.

However, the best infield in the National League right now isn’t in Philly; it belongs to the Cincinnati Reds. No wonder Cincy is the surprise leader of the NL Central.

With Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Scott Rolen and Orlando Cabrera, the Reds’ infield already has been worth 10.6 WAR; that’s more WAR than all the batters from nine different teams, including the Chicago White Sox and Los Angeles Angels. It’s also the best of any starting infield in the National League. Among all MLB clubs, only the Boston Red Sox’s infield (WAR of 12.3) is performing better; the Reds are even ahead of the highly paid New York Yankees infield, which is registering a WAR of 10.5.

Votto’s .429 wOBA leads the entire National League — including Albert Pujols — and is third to only Justin Morneau and Miguel Cabrera in MLB overall. Plus, but by all accounts, Votto is a tremendous fielder. Ultimate zone rating (UZR) has Votto as four runs better than the average first baseman to date this year and 14 runs better over his career, both fantastic numbers.

With the presence of Utley and Robinson Cano’s breakout this season, Phillips has fallen under the radar a bit, but he’s still among the elite second basemen in the league. Phillips always has had decent contact skills, but he’s doing a bit more with them this season, posting a .358 wOBA; that currently ranks as the highest of his career. The reason he doesn’t get as much play as Utley, Cano or players like Ian Kinsler is that much of his value comes from his fantastic glovework. Phillips won a Gold Glove in 2008 and pretty clearly deserved it: He posted a plus-16 UZR that season. Phillips has finished in the top eight in the Fielding Bible award voting every season since 2007, and his plus-4 UZR to date suggests that he’s well on his way to another top-caliber season with the glove at second base.

Rolen’s 2010 performance is more of a surprise, given that he turned 35 the day before Opening Day and hasn’t hit for big-time power since 2004, when he hit 34 home runs and posted a tremendous .284 ISO (isolated power, as explained here). He has 17 homers to date this season, although he’s out indefinitely with hamstring issues. His absence is the biggest reason to worry about the Reds’ ability to stay atop the NL Central.

Even while healthy, Rolen is unlikely to maintain his late-career power surge. His 14.7 percent homer/fly ball rate is his highest since that 2004 season and is more than 8 percent higher than his average from the past three seasons. Not only that, but according to HitTracker Online, Rolen’s average home run speed of 101.6 mph is 1.6 mph slower than the league average; this suggests he’s not hitting the ball as hard as most other power hitters. Still, even if Rolen regresses in the second half, he should be an above-average hitter thanks to his solid plate discipline and contact skills, and his always-great defense (plus-26 UZR since 2006) will be valuable.

That said, with the trade deadline approaching fast, there is still room for improvement. Cabrera has been awful at shortstop, as his .286 wOBA ranks only above Ryan Theriot and Alcides Escobar among qualified NL shortstops. And the fact that the Reds still have the NL’s best infield in spite of Cabrera is a testament to the excellence of Votto, Phillips and Rolen. Cabrera still brings roughly average defense to the table, but he’s a black hole at the plate. He doesn’t walk (20 this season) and has little to no power (three homers thus far). As such, he’s been only a 0.5 WAR player. If the Reds want to outlast the St. Louis Cardinals, shortstop is one position that they could look to upgrade before July 31, possibly with Stephen Drew or other shortstops on the market.

The Reds have Rolen and Phillips under contract until 2013, and Votto is under team control until 2014. The core of this infield and this stunning Reds team will be around for at least the foreseeable future. Even without a solid regular shortstop, this infield has performed as the best in the National League and should be one of the best for years to come.

As the second half begins — nice win by Tim Lincecum Thursday night — FanGraphs is looking at 10 players who are essential to the stretch run in each league; on Thursday we focused on the AL. What follows is the National League edition.

Dexter Fowler
The Rockies’ former top prospect offers a blend of speed and on-base savvy perhaps unseen since Kenny Lofton. Despite a legitimately horrible UZR in 2009 (minus-16.2 runs), Fowler is a better defender than right fielder Brad Hawpe. Assuming Fowler can cut down on the strikeouts (nearly 30 percent rate right now), the switch-hitter should be able to secure a full-time position, which would knock Hawpe to first base, removing the toasty Todd Helton from the equation while instantly improving the Rockies’ defense and lineup.

Nate McLouth
Acquired a little over a year ago from the Pirates, it seems that McLouth left his talent at PNC Park. McLouth is having the worst season of his career offensively and it’s not particularly close. His .269 wOBA is only part of the story, though, as he’s also played brutal defense (minus-6.9 UZR to date). A resurgence by Melky Cabrera or McLouth could help pull the Braves away from the outfield trade market. One worrisome factoid about McLouth is that he suffered a concussion in early June and might not be able to return for another few weeks.

Carlos Beltran
Beltran returned Thursday night; his overall return should knock Jeff Francoeur to the bench permanently — which would be nothing shy of a blessing for a team that desperately needs to rid itself of his dead weight.

Edinson Volquez
Another player making his 2010 season debut after the All-Star break, Volquez has recovered from Tommy John surgery and a suspension for PED usage. In 31 minor league innings, he has struck out 66 and walked only 21, which is encouraging. Another above-average arm in the rotation would make the Reds even more legitimate contenders for a playoff berth.

Jair Jurrjens
Same story, different verse for Jurrjens and the Atlanta Braves. If he can regain any semblance of the pitcher who posted consecutive FIP of 3.59 and 3.68 in 2008 and ’09, the Braves will probably run away with the NL East, leaving the Mets and Phillies to duke it out for the wild card.

Buster Posey
The Giants are the forgotten team in the NL West. If they were to get a bat like Dan Uggla, they’d be dangerous; their problem for the last year-and-a-half has been offense. Posey helps immeasurably with that. In 149 plate appearances this season he has a .409 wOBA, and could be the NL’s answer to Joe Mauer.

Manny Ramirez
Even if Manny isn’t quite the slugger he used to be in the golden days, he’s still much better than Garret Anderson and Reed Johnson, the men who have played in his absence. When Ramirez is in, the Dodgers have the best offensive outfield in the National League, and when he’s out, well, they have Garret Anderson (.467 OPS) playing in meaningful games.

Chad Billingsley
One of the league’s best-kept secrets, Billingsley deserves none of the grief he’s received for a so-so win-loss record and career-worst ERA. He is currently toting the best strikeout-to-walk ratio of his career and as a result a 3.40 FIP, which is the second-best of his career. He’s been brilliant all along, and if that .337 batting average on balls in play can regress during the second half, everyone else might take notice.

Johan Santana
Ignore the ERA. Santana isn’t pitching very well. He has horrible strikeout and walk ratios relative to what we’re accustomed to, and the lone saving grace is his deflated home run rate. Santana has always been able to stay slightly below the league average for jacks given up, but he’s currently halving his career average. That won’t continue for long and it won’t be pretty if that relapse coincides with his other struggles.

Jon Garland
The Padres are the surprise of baseball, but things are about to get complicated. If the Padres stick to their plan, staff ace Mat Latos will be shut down before he goes too far over the 150 innings mark. Of course, that plan didn’t involve the playoffs, and yet here they are, in first place at the break. That makes Garland’s performance all the more important. He’s pitched well to date, with his best xFIP in years, but that needs to continue and perhaps improve when and if the Padres put the lock on Latos.