While the offseason nears its end, there are still several contending clubs that have some glaring holes on their rosters.
Whether it comes through promoting a player from the minors or picking out of the bargain bin of what remains in free agency, these five clubs each will need to be creative to get production from a roster spot that could prove problematic in their chase for a playoff spot in 2012.
Having lost 95 or more games in three of the last four seasons, the Seattle Mariners have moved into full-scale rebuilding mode. Their big offensive upgrade of the winter was 22-year-old Jesus Montero, and the team is currently penciling in players with less than a full year of experience at second base (Dustin Ackley), third base (Kyle Seager) and left field (Mike Carp), plus wherever Montero ends up playing. General manager Jack Zduriencik is preaching patience, letting the fans know that they should expect to take some lumps this year, but that the fruit of going young will pay off with a steady rise up the standings as the kids mature.
Zduriencik can point to the Texas Rangers, who slowly stockpiled talent for years and saw their win total rise every season from 2007 through 2011. However, a more thorough look at recent history suggests that teams don’t usually follow this model of taking a slow, methodical rise from good to bad.
That isn’t to say that teams that lose with a bunch of young players don’t improve as those guys develop, or that the strategy currently being employed in Seattle won’t work in the long term. However, the evidence does show that improvement often comes from a big unexpected leap forward, as opposed to a steady rise.
When this week began, the American League Central was an eminently winnable sort of division. Sure, the Detroit Tigers won 95 games last year, but their Pythagorean record was a more modest 89-73, and in 2012 they’ll be without one of their best hitters in Victor Martinez. That meant an opportunity for an up-and-coming squad like the Cleveland Indians or Kansas City Royals.
But then the Tigers, despite solemn promises that they wouldn’t spend the money, lavished upon Prince Fielder a nine-year, $214 million pact. And now you can write in Detroit’s name at the top of the standings. Use ink if you like.
Sure, the idea of having Fielder, Miguel Cabrera and Delmon Young wield leather at the same time for the same team is enough to haunt one’s dreams, but the powerhouse offense plus a strong rotation fronted by AL MVP and Cy Young winner Justin Verlander is more than enough to overcome those pratfalls in the field. The Tigers, barring a series of minor miracles, will win the division. And that changes things for everyone else in the AL Central.
The Los Angeles Angels have had the splashiest offseason of any team. The Texas Rangers return an impressive core and may yet add the likes of Yu Darvish and perhaps even Prince Fielder. The New York Yankees, in the span of an hour or two this past Friday, upgraded their rotation by a notable margin. The Philadelphia Phillies return the most vital parts of last year’s 102-win outfit. The Boston Red Sox, despite the upheavals of 2011, have a tremendous amount of talent on the roster. Still and yet, the best team in baseball headed into the 2012 season might just be the Tampa Bay Rays.
That they’re in this discussion is not especially noteworthy. After all, the Rays, despite a basement-level payroll, have made a history of defying expectations: they’ve made the playoffs in three of the past four seasons, and in 2008 they notched a pennant. They achieved all this even though, over that same span, they traded away or lost to the market core performers such as Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, Matt Garza, Scott Kazmir, Jason Bartlett, Rafael Soriano and Johnny Damon, among many others. Yet the Rays, despite roster turnover, financial constraints and a home in baseball’s toughest division, keep on winning. In 2011, the Rays won 91 games, earned the same number of Pythagorean wins and of course seized the AL wild card in white-knuckled fashion. So why might the Rays be even better in 2012?
With prospective owners lining up around the block to bid for the Los Angeles Dodgers, we thought it’d be helpful to shine a light on just what kind of team they’d be buying. While the franchise’s history and large fan base offer value on their own, the team will be more profitable if the new owners can turn them into winners in a hurry. So, how far away are the Dodgers from being contenders?
Let’s start with the good news. The team has two franchise building blocks in Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw, young stars who are already performing at an elite level. There aren’t many teams in baseball that have two young players of this quality, and they are certainly capable of forming the foundation of a championship team.
The bad news is that those two performed about as well as anyone can realistically be asked to in 2011 and the team still won just 82 games, finishing in third place in the NL West. If the team is going to contend, it will have to get better performances from the supporting cast because they can’t realistically expect to get much more from Kershaw and Kemp than they got a year ago.
The Milwaukee Brewers find themselves in odd straits. On one hand, they’re coming off a season in which they barged to 96 wins and a division title. Their chief rivals, the St. Louis Cardinals, lost their franchise player. On the other hand, however, the Brewers are poised to lose Prince Fielder to free agency, and reigning National League MVP Ryan Braun may be facing a 50-game suspension.
So what to make of this diminished team in this diminished division?
In 2011, the Brewers notched an offensive WAR of 32.9 and a pitching WAR of 18.1. Add that to the replacement-level estimate of 43 WAR, and you get 93 wins for the Brewers last season, which, of course, is close to their actual total. Still, their starting baseline is a bit lower than their 96-66 record would suggest.
With their two big splashy free-agent signings this winter, the Los Angeles Angels have become a trendy pick to win in the American League West. Certainly, adding Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson to a roster that won 86 games last year seems like a formula for a playoff berth, but the Angels are one of the contending teams that need to plan on at least one key player from 2011 taking a pretty big step backward during the upcoming season.
Howie Kendrick, 2B
In Anaheim’s case, its regression candidate is second baseman Howie Kendrick. On the surface, Kendrick’s numbers from last season don’t seem out of line with his career numbers. His .285 average was below his career mark. He set his career high in home runs with 18, after hitting just 10 homers in each of the previous two seasons. That jump doesn’t appear too far out of line for a player coming into his prime.
However, Kendrick didn’t just have a career year at the plate in 2011. He also had one in the field, and that’s where the Angels can expect a pretty substantial step backward. From 2006 to 2010, Kendrick played just over 3,800 innings at second base and posted an Ultimate Zone Rating ( UZR) of plus-8.6, or an average of plus-3 runs per full season. In just over 900 innings at the position last year, Kendrick posted a UZR of plus-14.4 runs, or a total of nearly plus-20 runs over the course of an entire year — a mark that ranked him as baseball’s top defensive second baseman in 2011.
Barring a blockbuster trade to be named, Prince Fielder’s destination is the next — and last — big thing this offseason.
Fielder, the outgoing Milwaukee Brewers first baseman, is one of the best pure hitters in baseball. He’s coming off a season in which he ranked third in slugging and total bases and second in on-base percentage. At 27, Fielder is also entering what should be the prime of his career. So it’s reasonable to expect that he’ll average 5-7 WAR per season in the next few years (WAR = wins above replacement).
Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs has already argued that the Texas Rangers could benefit greatly from signing Fielder, as could the San Francisco Giants, Cleveland Indians, Miami Marlins and a handful of other hopefuls. This raises a related question: Who doesn’t need Fielder?
Not even the most privileged of human spawn will have as many holiday gifts to enjoy as the Miami Marlins. Indeed, besides a new ballpark, a new manager and new uniforms, the Marlins have bestowed upon themselves a new star shortstop, a new closer and a new workhorse for the rotation. So among the tattered wrapping paper is a pressing question: Does it all add up to postseason contention for the rebranded Marlins?
Last season, the Marlins limped to 72 wins, the same number of Pythagorean wins and a last-place finish in the National League East. So their baseline for 2012 would seem to be quite low. As you can see below, the Marlins were generally mediocre in all underlying phases of the game.
NL Rank
wOBA 9th
Rotation xFIP 7th
Bullpen xFIP 6th
UZR/150 8th
Run Differential 13th
Of course, there are those on-field improvements. Laying aside the fiscal wisdom of the contracts handed out, the Marlins will certainly be better because of their hot-stove adventures. But after all the hype, will they improve enough to make the playoffs? Let’s start with Jose Reyes. He will provide an offensive and defensive upgrade over what the Marlins got from the shortstop position in 2011. When healthy, Reyes puts up outstanding numbers by positional standards, flashes rare speed on the bases and plays capable defense.
On the downside, Reyes is coming off what was easily his best season on a rate basis, and there’s no guarantee that he’ll be able to replicate those numbers. His 2011 spike was largely attributable to a batting average on balls in play of .353, compared to a .314 career mark. While it’s possible Reyes has established a new level of expected performance, it’s not likely. As well, Reyes hasn’t played in more than 133 games in a season since 2008. Reyes is a fine player and one who’ll likely live up to his new contract. However, some immediate regression is likely.
Also new to Miami will be Mark Buehrle, a pitcher who has notched 11 straight seasons of 200 innings or more. In the near term, Buehrle should benefit from moving out of the DH league and into a park that figures to be far more pitcher-friendly than was U.S. Cellular. Buehrle will almost certainly provide the Marlins with an ERA better than the league average and an innings total worthy of a frontline starter. Considering Josh Johnson’s penchant for injury and Ricky Nolasco’s penchant for inconsistency, Buehrle’s skills are much needed in South Florida.
A number of teams have handed out unwise contracts to closers this offseason, and the Marlins are among them. For a commitment of $27 million, Miami added to the fold Heath Bell, who will take over late-inning duties from Juan Oviedo (formerly Leo Nunez). While Bell certainly constitutes an upgrade, it’s not the degree of upgrade that leads to much improvement in the standings (Bell bested Oviedo by just 0.3 WAR in 2011). Moreover, Bell’s drop in strikeout rate last season might suggest forthcoming decline, and no longer pitching his home games in pitcher-friendly Petco Park might also exact a price.
Elsewhere, there’s the enigmatic Hanley Ramirez. He is coming off a disappointing campaign, but he’s an excellent bounce-back candidate. Ramirez’s core hitting skills remained largely unchanged last season, although a precipitous drop in BABIP led to depressed numbers overall.
As well, Ramirez’s surgically repaired shoulder should be fully healthy, so he’s likely to improve significantly in 2012. If, as planned, he moves to third base, it will address a serious weak spot in the Miami lineup. The shift would also play to Ramirez’s defensive strengths.
All of this, of course, assumes Ramirez will accept the position switch and maintain the proper state of mind.
Above all, though, there’s this reality: In 2011, the Marlins finished 30 games out of the NL East race and 18 games out of playoff position. Assume all contingencies break Miami’s way — the Phillies come back to earth a bit; Reyes doesn’t; Ramirez rebounds; Bell thrives; Mike Stanton shows skills growth; Johnson stays healthy; Buehrle is Buehrle; the run differential better reflects the team’s performance — where does that leave it? Almost certainly not in the postseason. The division title is out of reach, and the buy-in for the NL wild card figures to be 90-plus wins. The Marlins, even with their improvements, aren’t 18 wins better. A realistic goal? A winning season, a third-place finish and a reinvigorated fan base.
Last week’s winter meetings were filled with all sorts of moves, both big and small. There were a few teams, however, who did almost nothing, and the Cincinnati Reds were among them. That kind of inaction will usually make you the target of local talk radio hosts, but in Reds’ case, it might — just might — have put them over the top.
The Reds, of course, muscled their way to the division title in 2010 but regressed last season to 79 wins and a third-place finish. The two teams in front of the Reds in 2011, however, have been diminished by recent events. Most notably, the World Series champion St. Louis Cardinals lost Albert Pujols to the Los Angeles Angels, and then outfielder/first baseman Allen Craig, a vital part of any post-Pujols scenario in St. Louis, was revealed to have undergone knee surgery last month. He’ll be lost until at least May.
The Cardinals certainly have room in the budget to add, say, someone like Carlos Beltran, but so far they look primed to fall from their 90-win level of a year ago, and that’s the case even with the return of pitcher Adam Wainwright from Tommy John surgery. And all of this is to say nothing of the loss of Tony La Russa, who might be the best manager since Joe McCarthy.
Meanwhile, the Milwaukee Brewers, who won the division title flag in 2011, will almost certainly part ways with free agent Prince Fielder, and their rumored fallback plan — a badly needed upgrade at shortstop in the form of Jose Reyes — has already inked with the Marlins. Complicating the Fielder situation is that Mat Gamel, their likely starter at first base, doesn’t figure to even sniff Fielder’s level of production.
Then there’s left fielder Ryan Braun, who could face a crippling 50-game suspension because of his alleged use of a banned substance. And even though the Brew Crew won 96 games last year, their Pythagorean record — which estimates a team’s true talent level based on run differential — was that of a 90-win team. So subtract Prince and 50 games of Braun and you are very easily looking at a .500 team. As for the rest of the division, the Pittsburgh Pirates and Houston Astros are still years away, though the Chicago Cubs could really spice things up if they make a run at Fielder because of just how wide open the division has become.
But let’s get back to the Reds. Unlike the Brewers, the Reds’ Pythagorean record (83-79 last season) portends better days ahead. On offense, young core performers like Joey Votto and Jay Bruce will be another year closer to what should be their prime seasons. Zack Cozart, now that he’s healthy after undergoing Tommy John surgery on his non-throwing arm, should provide a significant upgrade over the awful production the Reds received from the shortstop position last season. The Reds could also be in for an upgrade at the catcher position once Devin Mesoraco is ready to take over for Ryan Hanigan. And Yonder Alonso could add some pop to the outfield or provide some pitching depth if the Reds end up shopping him since he is blocked by Votto at first base, his natural position.
The rotation is an obvious source of concern. Last season, the Reds, despite expectations to the contrary, ranked next to last in the NL in rotation WAR. The good news is that the Reds can assault the problem with depth: Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez, Bronson Arroyo, Mike Leake, Homer Bailey, and Travis Wood all return, and Aroldis Chapman might get a look as a starter, provided his shoulder holds up.
It’s obviously a bit odd to proclaim a team that was below .500 last season to be the division favorite, but considering the talent drain in the rest of the division, it’s hard to bet against the Reds. You’ve probably read a lot of stories about the “winners” and “losers” from the winter meetings. Well, Cincy might have gained the most of any club, and they did it without spending a dime.